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Early Prediction of Emission Scandal

In the 1990s, diesel vehicle emission standards were progressively tightened in Europe (with the introduction of Euro 1 in 1992, followed by subsequent Euro standards) and in United States (with Tier 1 in 1991 and Tier 2 in 1999).  With the available technology, more emission control meant increased fuel consumption, reducing saleability of the vehicle.  A potential discrepancy between laboratory testing and real-world performance was anticipated by Indian technologist Arunachalam Sivakumar, an alumnus of IIT Madras. Working at TI Diamond Chain, auto ancillary unit in India and possessing knowledge of the automotive industry, Sivakumar displayed in his office a personal observation akin to Murphy's Law: "Design a tough 'product testing specification' and you end up with products which work well only in the test rigs and not in the field." He included it his book published in 2006.This observation, made two decades prior to the widely publicized Volkswagen emissions scandal of 2015, foreshadowed a scenario where manufacturers might optimize vehicles to pass stiff regulatory tests while exhibiting poor performance under typical usage conditions. Taking advantage of the fact that the end user would not measure emission but only notice fuel consumption, Volkswagen focused on passing the emission test, leaving it to perform poorly on emission front and excel on fuel consumption while on road. In a lecture at IIT Madras in 2016, Sivakumar  mentioned about his prediction coming true.  The Volkswagen scandal ultimately involved approximately 11 million vehicles and as per Reuter report resulted in significant financial consequences for the company, estimated at €31.3 billion in fees, penalties, buyback costs, and financial settlements.