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Impact of the 2026 Iran war on Iran

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The 2026 Iran war has had a widespread impact on Iran itself, affecting the country's political leadership, civilian life, military structure, and cultural heritage. The conflict, marked by extensive US–Israeli airstrikes and the assassination of Ali Khamenei, triggered a rapid leadership transition and contributed to internal instability and disrupted governance.

Civilians experienced significant hardship, including mass displacement, infrastructure damage, internet blackouts, and restrictions on daily life. Reports also indicated deteriorating humanitarian conditions, increased repression, and limited access to basic services. The war further intensified regional tensions, triggered refugee movements, and raised concerns over human rights violations, including the use of minors in military-related activities.

In addition to its social and political consequences, the conflict has caused damage to numerous historic and cultural sites across Iran.

Government

Khamenei's death triggered an election for a new supreme leader. Under the terms of Iran's constitution, an Interim Leadership Council was established on 1 March to exercise the functions of Iran's head of state until a new supreme leader is elected.[1]

Mojtaba Khamenei was elected on 8 March 2026 to replace his father as supreme leader,[2] and the IRGC, as well as key political figures including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Ali Larijani, and Masoud Pezeshkian,[3] pledged their allegiance to him.[4]

In late March, the New York Times described Iran's leadership as paralyzed with severely disrupted decision-making process. It also reported that the damage to communications infrastructure caused paranoia and internal power struggles.[5]

Güney Yıldız, writing for Forbes, opined that Mojtaba Khamenei's appointment, in spite of injuries he sustained in the strikes that killed his father, was a sign of "IRGC consolidation behind a pliant figurehead".[6] An Iranian official told The Telegraph: "No one knows anything about Mojtaba, whether he is alive or dead or how badly injured. We are all just told that he's injured. He has no control over the war because he is not here. The majority of commanders, or more correctly, all commanders, have no news about him."[7]

According to the scholar Navid Kermani, the war did not weaken the Iranian government, but made it more brutal. He adds that the people in Iran have lost hope.[8]

Civilian life

According to UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk, the "reckless" war is disproportionately impacting civilians in the Middle East and beyond.[9]

As the US and Israel executed joint strikes targeting Iranian military and institutional targets, Iran's capital reportedly became a ghost town, as civilians feared going outside or to their daily jobs.[10] Reports have emerged that prisoners in Evin Prison have been receiving limited bread and water since the onset of the war.[11] After the strikes, schools were ordered closed while banks and government offices remained in operation at reduced capacity. Local media reported that subway and bus services would remain operational.[12]

Airstrikes on industrial and fuel hubs have released a chronic toxic cocktail of benzene, heavy metals, and persistent 'forever chemicals' (PFAS), triggering 'black rain' in major cities and causing long-term health degradation for civilians.[13]

Amid the renewed "near total" internet blackout in Iran, NetBlocks reported that internet connectivity in Iran dropped to 4% of ordinary levels.[14][15][16] While the internet blackout has exceeded 240 hours, making it the second longest ever, the government started handing out "white sim cards", which bypass filters, to government supporters, in order to allow them to promote its messaging.[17][18] As news of Khamenei's death broke, security forces were deployed to prevent an uprising, with footage showing them opening fire on celebrants in the streets[19][20][21] and shooting at people chanting behind the windows of their homes.[22]

During the first two weeks of March 2026, over 70,000 Afghan refugees returned to Afghanistan, frequently under forced circumstances, exacerbating the country's existing severe humanitarian crisis.[23] Arafat Jamal, the UNHCR Representative in Afghanistan, described returnees as "fleeing one war only to encounter another," noting that they faced limited options amid heightened border tensions and military confrontations between Afghanistan and Pakistan.[24]

According to The Guardian, the war has overshadowed the persecution and executions of political prisoners in Iran, including those involved in the mass protests of January 2026. This has allowed the Iranian regime to continue carrying out death sentences, and other severe punishments with little international attention or scrutiny of these human rights abuses.[25]

Since the outbreak of the war, reactions have been very mixed among the Iranian public. Some Iranians have supported the war, with government supporters calling it a "holy war" and opponents believing it would further weaken the Islamic Republic. On the other hand, others have rejected war because of the physical and emotional devastation, and instead called for a ceasefire.[26] The reactions to the 2026 Iran war ceasefire were also very mixed, with some feeling disappointed about the lack of change in the country's internal crisis, while others are relieved about the pause in fighting. Most respondents expressed uncertainty about domestic effects of the ceasefire, including the effects it will have on the national internet blackout, towards state executions in Iran, and for the possibilities of regime change from the Iranian opposition.[27][28]

Military

On 26 March, it was reported that children as young as 12 years of age may join Iran's war support, leading to concerns of the use of child soldiers.[29][30][31] Days later, rights groups stated an 11-year-old was killed while on duty at a Tehran checkpoint.[32]

On 29 March, footage showed Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces deployed in Iran.[33][34][35] By 12 May, US intelligence reports showed Iran possessed about 70 percent of its mobile launchers across the country and has retained roughly 70 percent of its pre-war missile stockpile, according to the assessments and that Iran has regained access to roughly 90 percent of its underground missile storage and launch facilities nationwide.[36]

Kurdish–Iranian crisis

According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump had been open to supporting armed militias, particularly Kurds in Iran that have been in armed conflict with Tehran for decades[37] and have historically been a regional ally of the United States.[38] However, Trump later said he had ruled out sending the Kurds to Iran.[39]

Cultural Heritage Sites

Several historic and cultural sites, including UNESCO World Heritage Sites, were damaged during the war. On 2 March, a strike on Arg Square damaged nearby Golestan Palace, prompting UNESCO to issue a statement of concern.[40][41] On 5 March, the Azadi Sport Complex was bombed.[42] An 8 March strike on Falak-ol-Aflak, which was marked with a blue shield emblem, damaged several sections of the site.[43] Strikes on Isfahan on 9 March damaged Naqsh-e Jahan Square, Chehel Sotoun, Ali Qapu, the Shah Mosque, Jameh Mosque, and Teymouri Hall.[44][43] On 11 March, UNESCO urged protection for Iran's heritage sites and World Heritage Sites that have been damaged or are under high risk due to the war, alongside other historic sites in Israel, Lebanon, and across the Middle East.[45]

References

  1. ^ "More strikes aimed at Iran after Khamenei's death, Trump issues new warning". Reuters. 1 March 2026.
  2. ^ Tondo, Lorenzo (8 March 2026). "Ali Khamenei's son Mojtaba chosen as Iran's new supreme leader". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 8 March 2026.
  3. ^ Sabah, Zaid. "Iran names Mojtaba Khamenei to replace his father as supreme leader". Al Jazeera English. Retrieved 9 March 2026.
  4. ^ Kelliher, Fiona. "'Act of defiance': Iran picks Khamenei's son to lead as US-Israel attack". Al Jazeera English. Retrieved 8 March 2026.
  5. ^ "Iran's leadership is struggling to function and facing mounting internal disarray - report". i24NEWS. 31 March 2026. Retrieved 2 April 2026.
  6. ^ Yıldız, Güney (2026-03-11). "Mojtaba Khamenei's Wound Reveals Who Really Rules Iran". Forbes. Retrieved 2026-04-20.
  7. ^ Makoii, Akhtar (13 March 2026). "Mojtaba Khamenei is uniting Iran against Trump – but he may not be alive". The Telegraph. Retrieved 15 March 2026.
  8. ^ https://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/welt/politik/iran-krieg-usa-absehbar-folgen-westen-kermani-100.html
  9. ^ "Civilians bear brunt of reckless war in the Middle East, says Türk". OHCHR.
  10. ^ "Bombardment unleashes terror in Tehran with no sign of protests". Reuters. 3 March 2026.
  11. ^ "Families say food distribution disrupted in Evin wards after strikes in Tehran". Iran International. 4 March 2026. Retrieved 5 March 2026.
  12. ^ "Streets empty and shops close as US strikes confirm Iranian fears". France 24. 28 February 2026. Retrieved 17 March 2026.
  13. ^ Poynting, Mark; Murray, Alex; Kayleen, Devlinand; Metzler, Barbara (2026-03-10). "Why air strikes on Tehran oil facilities are causing black rain". www.bbc.com. Retrieved 2026-04-07.
  14. ^ "US and Israel launch attack on Iran, as Trump says 'major combat operations' under way". BBC News. 28 February 2026. Retrieved 28 February 2026.
  15. ^ "NetBlocks (@netblocks@mastodon.social)". Mastodon. 28 February 2026.
  16. ^ نت‌بلاکس از خاموشی اینترنت در ایران خبر داد [NetBlocks reported an internet blackout in Iran]. Iran International (in Persian). 28 February 2026.
  17. ^ "Iran keeps loyal voices online as public faces record internet blackout". Iran International. 10 March 2026. Retrieved 11 March 2026.
  18. ^ "Iran's 'chosen users' get 'privileged access' despite internet blackout for masses". The Register. 17 March 2026.
  19. ^ حضور نیروهای یگان ویژه در جنت‌آباد تهران [The presence of special forces in Jannat Abad, Tehran]. Iran International (in Persian). 28 February 2026.
  20. ^ تیراندازی و جولان سرکوبگران در سبزوار؛ شادی مردم پس از انتشار خبر مرگ علی خامنه‌ای [Shooting and the rampage of suppressors in Sabzevar; the joy of people after the news of Ali Khamenei's death was released]. Independent Persian (in Persian). Retrieved 1 March 2026.
  21. ^ Sinaiee, Maryam (1 March 2026). "Iranians react with joy and disbelief to Khamenei's death". Iran International. Retrieved 1 March 2026.
  22. ^ "Security forces shoot at people chanting behind windows". Iran International. 4 March 2026.
  23. ^ Peltier, Elian (23 March 2026). "Caught Between Two Conflicts, Afghans Flee Iran". The New York Times.
  24. ^ "UN: Thousands of Afghan Migrants Return Daily Amid Rising Conflict in Iran". The Kabul Tribune. 10 March 2026.
  25. ^ Johnson, Sarah; Foumani, Maryam (2 April 2026). "'Everyone is thinking about oil prices': is Iran using the war to hide a surge in executions?". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2 April 2026.
  26. ^ "'War must end—but so must the regime': civilians speak from under fire". Iran International. 2 April 2026.
  27. ^ "واکنش شهروندان به آتش‌بس موقت؛ از خشم و ناامیدی تا امید به «تاکتیک پنهان»" [Citizens' reaction to the temporary ceasefire: from anger and despair to hope for a "hidden tactic"] (in Persian). Iran International. 8 April 2026.
  28. ^ Akbari, Azadeh (8 April 2026). "Ceasefire stirs anger, fragile hope among Iranians". Iran International.
  29. ^ "Children as young as 12 can join war support, IRGC says". Iran International. 26 March 2026.
  30. ^ "Iran Recruits 12-Year-Olds As 'Combatants Defending The Homeland'". RFE/RL.
  31. ^ "Iran uses 12-year-old children in security patrols". Iran HRM. 28 March 2026.
  32. ^ "Rights group says 11-year-old killed 'while on duty' at Tehran checkpoint". Iran International. 29 March 2026.
  33. ^ "Video: Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces in Abadan". Iran International. 29 March 2026.
  34. ^ "Iraqi forces stationed in IRGC housing in Bandar Abbas". Iran International. 29 March 2026.
  35. ^ "Video: Tehran-backed militia convoy seen moving from Iraq toward Iran". Iran International. 28 March 2026.
  36. ^ https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/us/politics/iran-missiles-us-intelligence.html
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  38. ^ "CIA working to arm Kurdish forces to spark uprising in Iran, sources say". CNN. 3 March 2026. Retrieved 3 March 2026.
  39. ^ "Trump rules out sending Kurds into Iran". The Daily Telegraph. 7 March 2026.
  40. ^ Charles, Starr (5 March 2026). "US-Israeli airstrike damages UNESCO-listed palace in Tehran". Dezeen. Retrieved 10 March 2026.
  41. ^ Geranpayeh, Sarvy (3 March 2026). "Tehran's Unesco-listed Golestan Palace reportedly damaged by US-Israeli strikes". The Art Newspaper. Retrieved 10 March 2026.
  42. ^ Zirin, Dave (11 March 2026). "The Bombing of Iran's Azadi Stadium Is Straight Out of Israel's Gaza Script". ISSN 0027-8378. Retrieved 12 March 2026.
  43. ^ a b Geranpayeh, Sarvy (10 March 2026). "Unesco sites in Iranian city of Isfahan damaged by US-Israel strikes". The Art Newspaper. Retrieved 10 March 2026.
  44. ^ Fassihi, Farnaz (11 March 2026). "World Heritage Sites Hit in Airstrikes on Iran". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 12 March 2026.
  45. ^ "UNESCO raises concern over damage to Iran's heritage sites amid war, urges protection". TRT World. Retrieved 12 March 2026.