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2019 Manitoba general election

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2019 Manitoba general election

← 2016 September 10, 2019 2023 →

57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
29 seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout55.04%
  First party Second party
 
Brian Pallister with Andrew Scheer (48002323306).jpg
Wab Kinew (cropped).jpg
Leader Brian Pallister Wab Kinew
Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since July 30, 2012 September 16, 2017
Leader's seat Fort Whyte Fort Rouge
Last election 40 seats, 53.01% 14 seats, 25.73%
Seats before 38 12
Seats won 36 18
Seat change Decrease2 Increase6
Popular vote 222,569 150,016
Percentage 46.81% 31.55%
Swing Decrease6.27% Increase5.77%

  Third party Fourth party
 
Leader Dougald Lamont James Beddome
Party Liberal Green
Leader since October 21, 2017 November 15, 2014
Leader's seat St. Boniface ran in Fort Rouge (lost)
Last election 3 seats, 14.46% 0 seats, 5.07%
Seats before 4 0
Seats won 3 0
Seat change Decrease1 Steady
Popular vote 69,497 30,295
Percentage 14.62% 6.37%
Swing Increase0.22% Increase1.30%

Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding. Riding names are listed to the right.

Premier before election

Brian Pallister
Progressive Conservative

Premier after election

Brian Pallister
Progressive Conservative

The 2019 Manitoba general election was held on September 10, 2019, to elect the 57 members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba.[1]

The incumbent Progressive Conservatives, led by Premier Brian Pallister, were re-elected to a second majority government with a loss of two seats. The NDP, led by Wab Kinew, gained six seats and retained their position as the official opposition. The Liberals, led by Dougald Lamont, won the remaining three seats.

Background

[edit]

Under Manitoba's Elections Act, a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election.[2] As the previous election was held in 2016, the latest possible date for the election was October 6, 2020, or if that would have overlapped with a federal election period, the latest possible date would be April 20, 2021.[3]

However, incumbent Premier Brian Pallister announced instead in June 2019 that he would seek to hold the election over a year early, on September 10, 2019, in order to seek "a new mandate to keep moving Manitoba forward." Pallister visited Lieutenant Governor Janice Filmon on August 12 to officially drop the writ and begin the campaign period.[4]

It had been speculated that Pallister would call an early election in order to take advantage of a large lead in opinion polls, and to get the vote out of the way before new and potentially unpopular budget cuts took effect. A poll taken by the Winnipeg Free Press found that while most respondents disagreed with the early election and agreed that Pallister had moved up the date for partisan reasons, such sentiments were unlikely to imperil Pallister's re-election.[5]

Reorganization of electoral divisions

[edit]

In 2006, the Electoral Divisions Act was amended to provide for the creation of a permanent commission to determine any necessary redistribution of seats in the Legislative Assembly by the end of 2008, and then every tenth year thereafter.[6] Its final report would take effect upon the dissolution of the relevant Legislature. Following a series of hearings and an interim report,[7] the commission's final report was issued in December 2018, which provided for the following changes:[8]

Abolished ridings New ridings
New ridings
Abolished ridings
Merger of ridings
Renaming of ridings
  1. ^ from part of Southdale and small parts of Radisson, St. Vital, and Seine River
  2. ^ from parts of St. Paul, The Maples, and Kildonan
  3. ^ from parts of Selkirk, St. Paul, and a small part of Lac du Bonnet
  4. ^ from parts of St. Paul, La Verendrye, Dawson Trail, and Morris
  5. ^ from parts of St. Norbert and Fort Whyte
  6. ^ parts going to Midland, La Verendrye and Springfield-Ritchot


Timeline

[edit]

2016

[edit]

2017

[edit]

2018

[edit]

2019

[edit]
  • April 3: Progressive Conservative MLA for Kildonan, Nic Curry announces that he will not seek re-election.[13]
  • August 12: Premier Pallister visits the lieutenant governor and calls the election for September 10.[4]
  • September 10: The election is held.

Movement in seats held

[edit]
41st Manitoba Legislature - Movement in seats held up to the election (2016-2019)
Party 2016 Gain/(loss) due to 2019
Resignation
as MLA
Expulsion/
Suspension
Switching
allegiance
Byelection gain Byelection hold
Progressive Conservative 40 (2) 38
New Democratic 14 (2) (1) 1 12
Liberal 3 1 4
Manitoba First 1 1
Independent 3 (1) 2
Total 57 (2) 1 1 57
Changes in seats held (2016–2019)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Point Douglas January 9, 2017 Kevin Chief  New Democratic Resignation June 13, 2017 Bernadette Smith  New Democratic
The Maples January 31, 2017 Mohinder Saran  New Democratic Suspended from caucus  Independent
Assiniboia June 30, 2017 Steven Fletcher  PC Expelled from caucus  Independent
September 11, 2018  Independent Becomes leader of new party  Manitoba First
St. Boniface March 7, 2018 Greg Selinger  New Democratic Resignation July 17, 2018 Dougald Lamont  Liberal
Emerson October 22, 2018 Cliff Graydon  PC Expelled from caucus  Independent

Historical results from 1990 onwards

[edit]
Graph of Manitoba general election results by share of votes, 1990–2019; omitted are minor parties consistently registering less than 2% of the vote.
Graph of Manitoba general election results by seats won, 1990–2019; those of independent MNAs are omitted.

Campaign

[edit]
Riding contests, by number of candidates (2019)[14]
Candidates PC NDP Lib Grn MFW M1ST Comm Ind Total
3 13 13 13 39
4 29 29 29 28 1 116
5 10 10 10 10 2 4 2 2 50
6 5 5 5 5 4 2 3 1 30
Total 57 57 57 43 7 6 5 3 235

Opinion polls

[edit]
Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link PC NDP Liberal Green Other
Forum Research September 9, 2019 [p 1] 43 29 17 10 1
Research Co. September 9, 2019 [p 2] 44 31 16 7 1
Mainstreet Research September 4, 2019 [p 3] 43.3 34.2 15.1 6.2 1.2
Research Co. August 29, 2019 [p 4] 46 30 14 8 1
Probe Research Inc August 24, 2019 [p 5] 40 29 18 10 3
Mainstreet Research August 19, 2019 [p 6] 42.5 34.7 11.9 9.6 1.4
Converso August 7, 2019 [p 7] 35.0 21.0 12.0 8.0 1.0
Probe Research Inc June 17, 2019 [p 8] 42 26 16 14 3
Probe Research Inc March 24, 2019 [p 9] 42 30 18 7
Mainstreet Research March 24, 2019 [p 10] 44.8 32.1 13.1 6.7 3.3
Mainstreet Research January 16, 2019 [p 11] 44.6 28.0 16.8 4.6 6.0
Probe Research Inc December 6, 2018 [p 12] 44 27 21 5 3
Mainstreet Research November 5, 2018 [p 13] 42.3 28.7 18.1 6.0 4.9
Probe Research Inc September 28, 2018 [p 14] 44 25 20 8
Mainstreet Research July 17, 2018 [p 15] 44.9 29.3 13.6 8.7 3.4
Probe Research Inc June 19, 2018 [p 16] 42 30 16 11
Mainstreet Research April 18, 2018 [p 17] 45.6 30.2 13.0 7.8
Probe Research Inc April 13, 2018 [p 18] 44 28 19 8
Mainstreet Research January 6, 2018 [p 19] 39.6 36.7 13.3 10.4
Probe Research Inc December 14, 2017 [p 20] 40 26 25 8
Probe Research Inc October 10, 2017 [p 21] 36 30 24 8
Probe Research Inc June 18, 2017 [p 22] 42 30 20 7
Mainstreet Research April 7, 2017 [p 23] 47 23 19 11
Probe Research Inc March 28, 2017 [p 24] 43 27 20 8
Probe Research Inc December 12, 2016 [p 25] 49 24 19 8
Probe Research Inc September 26, 2016 [p 26] 48 20 26 5
Probe Research Inc June 16, 2016 [p 27] 46 27 18 8
2016 election April 19, 2016 53.0 25.7 14.5 5.1 1.7
Polling firm Last date
of polling
Link Other
PC NDP Liberal Green

Results

[edit]
Elections to the 42nd Manitoba Legislature[14]
Party Leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
2016 Dissolution 2019 +/- Votes % +/-
Progressive Conservative Brian Pallister 57 40 38 36 -4 222,569 46.81 -6.27
New Democratic Wab Kinew 57 14 12 18 +4 150,016 31.55 +5.77
Liberal Dougald Lamont 57 3 4 3 69,497 14.62 +0.22
Green James Beddome 43 30,295 6.37 +1.30
  Manitoba Forward Wayne Sturby 7 1,339 0.28
  Manitoba First[a] Douglas Petrick 6 1 647 0.14 -0.98
Communist Darrell Rankin 5 214 0.05 -0.02
  Independents 3 2 854 0.18 -0.29
  Vacant 0
Valid votes 478,926 99.27
Blank and invalid votes 3,495 0.73
Total 235 57 57 57 482,421 100
Registered voters/turnout 870,137 55.44

Vote and seat summaries

[edit]


Popular vote
PC
46.81%
New Democratic
31.55%
Liberal
14.62%
Green
6.37%
Others
0.64%
Seat summary
PC
63.16%
New Democratic
31.58%
Liberal
5.26%


Synopsis of results

[edit]
2019 Manitoba general election – synopsis of riding results[16]
Electoral
division
2016
(Redist)
[17]
Winning party Votes[a 1]
1st
place
Votes Share Margin
#
Margin
%
2nd
place
PC NDP Lib Grn Ind Other Total
 
Agassiz PC PC 5,700 75.53% 4,736 62.75% NDP 5,700 964 463 420 7,547
Assiniboia PC PC 4,108 44.25% 816 8.79% NDP 4,108 3,292 1,247 636 9,283
Borderland PC PC 4,886 66.09% 3,660 49.51% Lib 4,886 291 1,226 250 740 7,393
Brandon East PC PC 3,294 51.00% 947 14.66% NDP 3,294 2,347 818 6,459
Brandon West PC PC 4,311 58.39% 2,554 34.59% NDP 4,311 1,757 567 748 7,383
Burrows Lib NDP 2,555 39.70% 874 13.58% PC 1,681 2,555 1,178 1,022 6,436
Concordia NDP NDP 4,305 59.69% 2,010 27.87% PC 2,295 4,305 612 7,212
Dauphin PC PC 4,805 50.52% 773 8.13% NDP 4,805 4,032 675 9,512
Dawson Trail PC PC 4,555 55.41% 2,675 32.54% Lib 4,555 1,785 1,880 8,220
Elmwood NDP NDP 3,886 48.68% 1,346 16.86% PC 2,540 3,886 746 765 45 7,982
Flin Flon NDP NDP 3,173 63.19% 1,816 36.17% PC 1,357 3,173 299 192 5,021
Fort Garry PC NDP 4,003 42.35% 996 10.54% PC 3,007 4,003 1,719 723 9,452
Fort Richmond PC PC 3,242 42.15% 879 11.43% Lib 3,242 1,708 2,363 379 7,692
Fort Rouge NDP NDP 5,055 51.24% 3,198 32.41% PC 1,857 5,055 1,290 1,580 84 9,866
Fort Whyte PC PC 5,619 57.19% 3,862 39.30% NDP 5,619 1,757 1,731 665 54 9,826
Interlake-Gimli PC PC 6,165 58.62% 2,687 25.55% NDP 6,165 3,478 400 473 10,516
Keewatinook Lib NDP 1,932 67.08% 1,397 48.51% Lib 413 1,932 535 2,880
Kildonan-River East PC PC 5,523 51.10% 1,844 17.06% NDP 5,523 3,679 1,607 10,809
Kirkfield Park PC PC 5,445 50.36% 2,668 24.67% NDP 5,445 2,777 1,695 896 10,813
La Vérendrye PC PC 5,310 72.79% 4,264 58.45% NDP 5,310 1,046 939 7,295
Lac du Bonnet PC PC 6,177 65.91% 4,363 46.55% NDP 6,177 1,814 1,381 9,372
Lagimodière PC PC 5,187 51.78% 2,395 23.91% NDP 5,187 2,792 1,481 557 10,017
Lakeside PC PC 6,409 68.24% 4,320 46.00% NDP 6,409 2,089 894 9,392
McPhillips PC PC 3,359 38.19% 88 1.00% NDP 3,359 3,271 1,506 414 245 8,795
Midland PC PC 6,706 75.01% 5,334 59.66% NDP 6,706 1,372 862 8,940
Morden-Winkler PC PC 6,109 80.86% 5,305 70.22% Green 6,109 365 277 804 7,555
Notre Dame NDP NDP 3,420 65.01% 2,626 49.91% PC 794 3,420 719 267 61 5,261
Point Douglas NDP NDP 3,136 62.35% 2,373 47.18% PC 763 3,136 594 414 123 5,030
Portage la Prairie PC PC 4,502 65.67% 2,994 43.68% NDP 4,502 1,508 845 6,855
Radisson PC PC 4,527 46.97% 989 10.26% NDP 4,527 3,538 1,002 572 9,639
Red River North PC PC 5,569 57.97% 3,180 33.10% NDP 5,569 2,389 735 740 173 9,606
Riding Mountain PC PC 6,126 65.91% 4,156 44.72% NDP 6,126 1,970 472 726 9,294
Riel PC PC 4,734 44.75% 990 9.36% NDP 4,734 3,744 1,471 630 10,579
River Heights Lib Lib 5,884 53.79% 3,182 29.09% PC 2,702 1,595 5,884 757 10,938
Roblin PC PC 6,203 55.19% 4,180 37.19% NDP 6,203 2,023 1,775 1,238 11,239
Rossmere PC PC 4,369 46.91% 751 8.06% NDP 4,369 3,618 711 615 9,313
Seine River PC PC 4,372 45.04% 1,847 19.03% NDP 4,372 2,525 2,151 659 9,707
Selkirk PC PC 4,872 51.84% 1,543 16.42% NDP 4,872 3,329 482 716 9,399
Southdale PC PC 4,493 42.40% 483 4.56% NDP 4,493 4,010 1,427 595 71 10,596
Springfield-Ritchot PC PC 5,670 59.48% 3,688 38.69% NDP 5,670 1,982 814 1,066 9,532
Spruce Woods PC PC 5,665 68.06% 4,344 52.19% NDP 5,665 1,321 517 820 8,323
St. Boniface NDP Lib 4,152 41.69% 1,177 11.82% NDP 1,907 2,975 4,152 845 81 9,960
St. James PC NDP 4,002 47.25% 1,221 14.42% PC 2,781 4,002 880 806 8,469
St. Johns NDP NDP 3,548 51.88% 1,874 27.40% PC 1,674 3,548 1,111 506 6,839
St. Vital PC NDP 4,092 44.47% 881 9.58% PC 3,211 4,092 1,274 502 62 60 9,201
Steinbach PC PC 6,241 81.64% 5,625 73.58% NDP 6,241 616 370 418 7,645
Swan River PC PC 5,546 68.87% 3,462 42.99% NDP 5,546 2,084 423 8,053
The Maples NDP NDP 2,792 39.51% 689 9.75% Lib 1,883 2,792 2,103 289 7,067
The Pas-Kameesak NDP NDP 3,180 57.90% 1,844 33.58% PC 1,336 3,180 186 790 5,492
Thompson PC NDP 2,686 54.55% 929 18.87% PC 1,757 2,686 183 298 4,924
Transcona PC NDP 4,030 46.42% 112 1.29% PC 3,918 4,030 734 8,682
Turtle Mountain PC PC 6,210 67.48% 4,838 52.57% Green 6,210 1,003 618 1,372 9,203
Tuxedo PC PC 4,645 47.85% 2,358 24.29% Lib 4,645 1,921 2,287 793 61 9,707
Tyndall Park NDP Lib 4,301 54.67% 1,898 24.13% NDP 984 2,403 4,301 157 22 7,867
Union Station NDP NDP 2,913 52.62% 1,876 33.89% Lib 950 2,913 1,037 538 98 5,536
Waverley PC PC 3,267 50.05% 1,400 21.45% NDP 3,267 1,867 1,070 324 6,528
Wolseley NDP NDP 4,271 46.03% 931 10.03% Green 838 4,271 778 3,340 52 9,279
  1. ^ All parties with more than 1% of the vote are shown individually. Independent candidates and other minor parties are aggregated separately.
  = new ridings
  = open seat
  = winning candidate was in previous Legislature
  = incumbent had switched allegiance
  = previously incumbent in another riding
  = incumbency arose from a byelection gain
  = not incumbent; was previously elected to the Legislature
  = other incumbents renominated
  = previously an MP in the House of Commons of Canada
  = multiple candidates


Turnout, winning shares and swings

[edit]
Summary of riding results by turnout, vote share for winning candidate, and swing (vs 2016)[18][16][17]
Riding and winning party[a 1] Turnout[a 2] Vote share[a 3][a 1] Swing[a 4][a 2]
% Change (pp) % Change (pp) To Change (pp)
 
Agassiz PC Hold 56.05 -1.08
 
75.53 0.23
 
N/A[a 5]
Assiniboia PC Hold 54.70 -4.87
 
44.25 -0.85
 
NDP -3.59
 
Borderland PC Hold 61.86 8.38
 
66.09 -13.21
 
Lib -1.14
 
Brandon East PC Hold 45.68 -8.81
 
51.00 -0.5
 
NDP -0.74
 
Brandon West PC Hold 51.27 -4.65
 
58.39 -9.81
 
NDP -5.68
 
Burrows NDP Gain 46.08 -6.53
 
39.70 5.9
 
NDP -18.33
 
Concordia NDP Hold 48.46 -5.63
 
59.69 15.59
 
NDP 11.67
 
Dauphin PC Hold 58.62 -3.23
 
50.52 -6.28
 
NDP -14.12
 
Dawson Trail PC Hold 57.84 0.06
 
55.41 1.21
 
PC 0.22
 
Elmwood NDP Hold 50.23 -4.76
 
48.68 3.08
 
NDP 7.6
 
Flin Flon NDP Hold 33.91 -0.53
 
63.19 24.89
 
NDP 15.83
 
Fort Garry NDP Gain 61.69 -6.85
 
42.35 6.45
 
NDP 3.62
 
Fort Richmond PC Hold 57.38 -9.72
 
42.15 -5.55
 
PC 5.32
 
Fort Rouge NDP Hold 58.76 -6.39
 
51.24 13.34
 
NDP 11.79
 
Fort Whyte PC Hold 60.35 -0.36
 
57.19 -7.31
 
NDP -4.3
 
Interlake-Gimli PC Hold 65.56 58.62 -2.18
 
Keewatinook NDP Gain 21.84 -2.47
 
67.08 26.38
 
NDP -29.94
 
Kildonan-River East PC Hold 61.82 51.10 -6.2
 
Kirkfield Park PC Hold 61.25 -7.47
 
50.36 -1.84
 
PC 0.67
 
La Vérendrye PC Hold 55.41 0.09
 
72.79 -5.81
 
PC 5.68
 
Lac du Bonnet PC Hold 61.24 6.32
 
65.91 -11.59
 
NDP -4.2
 
Lagimodière PC Hold 62.27 51.78 -12.02
 
Lakeside PC Hold 59.22 1.44
 
68.24 -11.76
 
NDP -8.62
 
McPhillips PC Hold 56.64 38.19 -9.51
 
Midland PC Hold 59.27 -0.38
 
75.01 -3.39
 
PC 4.76
 
Morden-Winkler PC Hold 51.19 -0.74
 
80.86 -2.24
 
Green -3.11
 
Notre Dame NDP Hold 40.86 -10.52
 
65.01 20.21
 
NDP 8.2
 
Point Douglas NDP Hold 36.00 -6.53
 
62.35 7.45
 
NDP 6.1
 
Portage la Prairie PC Hold 48.64 -2.69
 
65.67 -4.93
 
PC 0.82
 
Radisson PC Hold 56.47 -6.37
 
46.97 -6.83
 
NDP -4.08
 
Red River North PC Hold 63.96 57.97 -8.23
 
Riding Mountain PC Hold 55.72 0.22
 
65.91 -7.29
 
PC 2.67
 
Riel PC Hold 63.24 -4.14
 
44.75 -6.15
 
NDP -5.48
 
River Heights Lib Hold 65.48 -7.23
 
53.79 7.59
 
Lib 5.89
 
Roblin PC Hold 61.83 -3.82
 
55.19 -7.11
 
Lib -3.84
 
Rossmere PC Hold 59.62 -0.9
 
46.91 -11.69
 
NDP -5.58
 
Seine River PC Hold 62.12 45.04 -7.96
 
Selkirk PC Hold 59.25 0.52
 
51.84 -4.46
 
NDP -5.53
 
Southdale PC Hold 61.66 -0.65
 
42.40 -9.2
 
NDP -17.85
 
Springfield-Ritchot PC Hold 60.56 59.48 -7.22
 
Spruce Woods PC Hold 56.75 4.76
 
68.06 -3.34
 
N/A[a 6]
St. Boniface Lib Gain 59.78 -3.89
 
41.69 22.89
 
PC -2.91
 
St. James NDP Gain 55.78 -6.16
 
47.25 12.65
 
NDP -12.03
 
St. Johns NDP Hold 47.34 -4.09
 
51.88 14.58
 
NDP 9.86
 
St. Vital NDP Gain 60.78 -3.19
 
44.47 10.17
 
NDP -7.23
 
Steinbach PC Hold 52.49 0.78
 
81.64 -6.96
 
Lib -3.24
 
Swan River PC Hold 54.87 -5.31
 
68.87 3.47
 
PC 9.98
 
The Maples NDP Hold 53.08 -2.55
 
39.51 3.21
 
NDP 5.62
 
The Pas-Kameesak NDP Hold 43.04 12.34
 
57.90 19.1
 
NDP 14.47
 
Thompson NDP Gain 37.27 -0.08
 
54.55 16.15
 
NDP -11.82
 
Transcona NDP Gain 52.45 -3.54
 
46.42 18.22
 
NDP -11.07
 
Turtle Mountain PC Hold 57.28 3.99
 
67.48 -8.62
 
N/A[a 6]
Tuxedo PC Hold 57.90 -4.5
 
47.85 -5.25
 
NDP -7.52
 
Tyndall Park Lib Gain 56.39 2.99
 
54.67 23.27
 
Lib -16.46
 
Union Station NDP Hold 44.06 -7.92
 
52.62 12.72
 
NDP 11.44
 
Waverley PC Hold 51.95 50.05 -4.85
 
Wolseley NDP Hold 56.96 -6.3
 
46.03 1.33
 
NDP 2.35
 
  1. ^ a b using 2016 redistribution data from CBC
  2. ^ a b using 2016 base data from Elections Manitoba
  3. ^ Share won by winning candidate, with difference noted from share achieved by the same party in 2011.
  4. ^ Positive indicates improvement to standing of party winning in 2011; negative points to 2011's second-place party being swung to.
  5. ^ an Independent candidate came in second in 2016, but did not stand in 2019
  6. ^ a b Manitoba First (then called the Manitoba Party) finished second in 2016, but opted not to field candidates in this election

Changes in party shares

[edit]
Share change analysis by party and riding (2019 vs 2016)[16][17]
Riding Green Liberal NDP PC
% Change (pp) % Change (pp) % Change (pp) % Change (pp)
 
Agassiz 5.57 0.27
 
6.13 5.23
 
12.77 6.37
 
75.53 0.23
 
Assiniboia 6.85 -0.55
 
13.43 -5.37
 
35.46 6.86
 
44.25 -0.85
 
Borderland 3.38 1.38
 
16.58 1.68
 
3.94 0.14
 
66.09 -13.21
 
Brandon East 12.66 0.56
 
36.34 -0.06
 
51.00 -0.50
 
Brandon West 10.13 10.13
 
7.68 -0.02
 
23.80 -0.40
 
58.39 -9.81
 
Burrows -4.30
 
18.30 -23.30
 
39.70 5.90
 
26.12 6.32
 
Concordia 8.49 -1.81
 
59.69 15.59
 
31.82 -9.88
 
Dauphin -6.70
 
7.10 -0.70
 
42.39 15.89
 
50.52 -6.28
 
Dawson Trail -2.70
 
22.87 3.97
 
21.72 2.42
 
55.41 1.21
 
Elmwood 9.58 9.58
 
9.35 8.65
 
48.68 3.08
 
31.82 -13.28
 
Flin Flon 3.82 2.02
 
5.95 -20.05
 
63.19 24.89
 
27.03 1.93
 
Fort Garry 7.65 -4.85
 
18.19 4.69
 
42.35 6.45
 
31.81 -5.89
 
Fort Richmond 4.93 0.33
 
30.72 18.02
 
22.20 -11.90
 
42.15 -5.55
 
Fort Rouge 16.01 -1.19
 
13.08 -1.92
 
51.24 13.34
 
18.82 -9.28
 
Fort Whyte 6.77 -0.43
 
17.62 6.22
 
17.88 2.18
 
57.19 -7.31
 
Interlake-Gimli 4.50 1.50
 
3.80 -7.30
 
33.07 8.47
 
58.62 -2.18
 
Keewatinook 18.58 -23.42
 
67.08 26.38
 
14.34 -2.86
 
Kildonan-River East -1.80
 
14.87 5.47
 
34.04 3.54
 
51.10 -6.20
 
Kirkfield Park 8.29 0.39
 
15.68 6.18
 
25.68 -4.52
 
50.36 -1.84
 
La Vérendrye -3.20
 
12.87 2.27
 
14.34 6.74
 
72.79 -5.81
 
Lac du Bonnet -1.70
 
14.74 13.54
 
19.36 -0.34
 
65.91 -11.59
 
Lagimodière 5.56 5.36
 
14.78 0.88
 
27.87 5.87
 
51.78 -12.02
 
Lakeside 9.52 5.92
 
22.24 5.84
 
68.24 -11.76
 
McPhillips 4.71 0.21
 
17.12 4.32
 
37.19 3.19
 
38.19 -9.51
 
Midland -4.50
 
9.64 0.34
 
15.35 7.55
 
75.01 -3.39
 
Morden-Winkler 10.64 0.84
 
3.67 -0.33
 
4.83 1.73
 
80.86 -2.24
 
Notre Dame 5.08 -1.72
 
13.67 -8.53
 
65.01 20.21
 
15.09 -4.81
 
Point Douglas 8.23 2.73
 
11.81 -9.09
 
62.35 7.45
 
15.17 -1.23
 
Portage la Prairie 12.33 -6.47
 
22.00 11.40
 
65.67 -4.93
 
Radisson 5.93 5.93
 
10.40 -2.20
 
36.71 5.01
 
46.97 -6.83
 
Red River North 7.70 7.70
 
7.65 -4.45
 
24.87 3.17
 
57.97 -8.23
 
Riding Mountain 7.81 1.31
 
5.08 -2.82
 
21.20 13.40
 
65.91 -7.29
 
Riel 5.96 5.26
 
13.90 -5.50
 
35.39 6.29
 
44.75 -6.15
 
River Heights 6.92 -1.18
 
53.79 7.59
 
14.58 2.88
 
24.70 -9.10
 
Roblin 11.02 0.02
 
15.79 2.39
 
18.00 4.70
 
55.19 -7.11
 
Rossmere 6.60 6.60
 
7.63 -0.57
 
38.85 8.25
 
46.91 -11.69
 
Seine River 6.79 6.79
 
22.16 2.86
 
26.01 -1.19
 
45.04 -7.96
 
Selkirk 7.62 1.22
 
5.13 -2.87
 
35.42 8.12
 
51.84 -4.46
 
Southdale 5.62 4.82
 
13.47 -3.33
 
37.84 6.94
 
42.40 -9.20
 
Springfield-Ritchot 11.18 10.08
 
8.54 -6.26
 
20.79 5.59
 
59.48 -7.22
 
Spruce Woods 9.85 8.15
 
6.21 -1.19
 
15.87 2.27
 
68.06 -3.34
 
St. Boniface 8.48 -3.52
 
41.69 22.89
 
29.87 -12.13
 
19.15 -7.95
 
St. James 9.52 -0.48
 
10.39 -3.41
 
47.25 12.65
 
32.84 -5.66
 
St. Johns 7.40 -3.10
 
16.25 -6.65
 
51.88 14.58
 
24.48 -4.72
 
St. Vital 5.46 -0.84
 
13.85 -2.75
 
44.47 10.17
 
34.90 -7.90
 
Steinbach 5.47 5.47
 
4.84 -1.36
 
8.06 2.86
 
81.64 -6.96
 
Swan River -5.40
 
5.25 -2.15
 
25.88 4.38
 
68.87 3.47
 
The Maples 4.09 -2.91
 
29.76 6.96
 
39.51 3.21
 
26.64 -7.26
 
The Pas-Kameesak 14.38 11.08
 
3.39 -15.91
 
57.90 19.10
 
24.33 -14.17
 
Thompson 6.05 6.05
 
3.72 -17.18
 
54.55 16.15
 
35.68 -4.82
 
Transcona 8.45 -10.15
 
46.42 18.22
 
45.13 -4.67
 
Turtle Mountain 14.91 11.51
 
6.72 2.32
 
10.90 2.20
 
67.48 -8.62
 
Tuxedo 8.17 -5.83
 
23.56 4.96
 
19.79 5.49
 
47.85 -5.25
 
Tyndall Park 2.00 -4.50
 
54.67 23.27
 
30.55 -5.75
 
12.51 -13.19
 
Union Station 9.72 -4.48
 
18.73 -4.07
 
52.62 12.72
 
17.16 -2.44
 
Waverley 4.96 2.46
 
16.39 2.69
 
28.60 1.20
 
50.05 -4.85
 
Wolseley 36.00 6.80
 
8.38 -0.62
 
46.03 1.33
 
9.03 -4.27
 
  = did not field a candidate in 2016

Summary analysis

[edit]
Party candidates in 2nd place[14]
Party in 1st place Party in 2nd place Total
PC NDP Liberal Grn
Progressive Conservative 30 4 2 36
New Democratic 14 3 1 18
Liberal 1 2 8
Total 15 32 7 3 57
Principal races, according to 1st and 2nd-place results[14]
Parties Seats
 Progressive Conservative  New Democratic 44
 Progressive Conservative  Liberal 5
 Progressive Conservative  Green 2
 New Democratic  Liberal 5
 New Democratic  Green 1
Total 57
Candidates ranked 1st to 5th place, by party[14]
Parties 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Total
Progressive Conservative 36 15 6 57
New Democratic 18 32 6 1 57
Liberal 3 7 32 15 57
Green 3 12 27 1 43
Manitoba First 5 5
  Manitoba Forward 1 3 4
Independent 1 2 3

Seats changing hands

[edit]
Elections to the 42nd Legislative Assembly of Manitoba – seats won/lost by party, 2016–2019
Party 2016
(Redist)
Gain from (loss to) 2019
PC NDP Lib
Progressive Conservative 41 (5) 36
New Democratic 13 5 2 (2) 18
Liberal 3 2 (2) 3
Total 57 5 2 (7) 2 (2) 57

Nine seats changed allegiance in 2019:

Resulting composition of the 42nd Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
Source Party
PC NDP Lib Total
Seats retained Incumbents returned 29 7 1 37
Seats retained by incumbents from other ridings 5 5
Open seats held 1 4 5
Ouster of incumbent changing affiliation 1 1
Seats changing hands Incumbents defeated 3 3
Open seats gained 4 4
Seat gained by incumbent from another riding 1 1
Byelection gain held 1 1
Total 36 18 3 57

Incumbents not running for reelection

[edit]
Riding Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent nominee New MLA
Assiniboia   Steven Fletcher[19] (elected as PC) none   Scott Johnston
Fort Garry-Riverview (redistributed to Fort Garry)   James Allum[20] Mark Wasyliw[21]   Mark Wasyliw
Kildonan (redistributed to Kildonan-River East)   Nic Curry[13] Cathy Cox   Cathy Cox
Logan (redistributed to Notre Dame and Union Station)   Flor Marcelino[22] Uzoma Asagwara   Uzoma Asagwara
Wolseley   Rob Altemeyer[23] Lisa Naylor[24]   Lisa Naylor
Minto (redistributed to Notre Dame)   Andrew Swan[25] Malaya Marcelino   Malaya Marcelino
Keewatinook   Judy Klassen[26] Jason Harper   Ian Bushie

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Party name changed from Manitoba Party in 2019.[15]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Voting in a Manitoba Provincial Election Archived February 22, 2012, at the Wayback Machine. Retrieved June 24, 2012.
  2. ^ Elections Act, CCSM , c. E30, s. 49.1(2)
  3. ^ CCSM c. E30, s. 49.1(3)
  4. ^ a b Hatherly, Dana (August 12, 2019). "Pallister makes it official: Manitoba election is Sept. 10". CBC News.
  5. ^ Robertson, Dylan (June 25, 2019). "No hard feelings on early Manitoba election: poll". Winnipeg Free Press. Retrieved September 11, 2019.
  6. ^ The Elections Reform Act, S.M. 2006, c. 15, Sch. C
  7. ^ "Interim Report 2018" (PDF). Manitoba Electoral Divisions Boundaries Commission. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 13, 2018. Retrieved October 4, 2025.
  8. ^ "Final Report 2018" (PDF). boundariescommission.mb.ca. Manitoba Electoral Divisions Boundaries Commission. December 2018.
  9. ^ "Wolseley MLA Rob Altemeyer won't run in next provincial election". CBC News. March 21, 2018.
  10. ^ "MLA Biographies - Living". Legislative Assembly of Manitoba. Government of Manitoba. Retrieved October 12, 2023.
  11. ^ "Manitoba Electoral Boundaries Commission - Final Report 2018". Manitoba Electoral Boundaries Commission. Retrieved December 14, 2018.
  12. ^ "Manitoba NDP's James Allum to finish term, won't seek re-election". The Province. December 14, 2018. Retrieved June 28, 2019.
  13. ^ a b "Manitoba Tory MLA Nic Curry won't seek re-election". CBC.ca. April 3, 2019. Retrieved September 11, 2019.
  14. ^ a b c d e "Results Summary - 42nd General Election" (PDF). electionsmanitoba.ca. Elections Manitoba. Retrieved February 1, 2023.
  15. ^ "Political Parties – 2019 Annual Report" (PDF). Elections Manitoba. Retrieved July 11, 2023.
  16. ^ a b c "Results of 42nd General Election, September 10, 2019". Elections Manitoba. Retrieved September 30, 2025.
  17. ^ a b c Marcoux, Jacques (August 27, 2019). "New Manitoba election boundaries give upper hand to Progressive Conservatives, CBC News analysis finds". CBC News.
  18. ^ "Results of 41st General Election, April 19, 2016". Elections Manitoba. Retrieved October 3, 2025.
  19. ^ "Manitoba MLA Steven Fletcher to run for People's Party of Canada". CBC News. May 22, 2019. Retrieved June 11, 2019.
  20. ^ "Manitoba NDP's James Allum to finish term, won't seek re-election". The Canadian Press via The Province. December 14, 2018. Retrieved May 31, 2019.
  21. ^ "Winnipeg school trustee upset with province over funding to seek NDP nomination". The Canadian Press via CBC Manitoba. March 19, 2019. Retrieved May 31, 2019.
  22. ^ Froese, Ian (June 3, 2019). "Former interim NDP leader Flor Marcelino won't run for re-election". CBC Manitoba. Retrieved June 7, 2019.
  23. ^ "Wolseley MLA Rob Altemeyer won't run in next provincial election". CBC Manitoba. March 21, 2018. Retrieved May 31, 2019.
  24. ^ "News in Brief - Naylor wins Wolseley NDP nomination". Winnipeg Free Press. March 21, 2018. Retrieved May 31, 2019.
  25. ^ "Longtime former Manitoba NDP cabinet minister will not seek re-election". CBC Manitoba. May 17, 2019. Retrieved July 16, 2019.
  26. ^ Schroeder, Lara (April 11, 2019). "MLA Judy Klassen sets sights on federal seat, saying 'proper representation' would save lives". CBC News. Retrieved September 2, 2019.

Opinion poll sources

[edit]
  1. ^ "Manitoba Election".
  2. ^ "Progressive Conservatives Remain Ahead of NDP in Manitoba". September 10, 2019.
  3. ^ Manitoba PC Government most likely outcomeMainstreet Research Archived October 10, 2019, at the Wayback Machine
  4. ^ "Progressive Conservatives Have Sizeable Advantage in Manitoba". August 30, 2019.
  5. ^ "Manitoba Progressive Conservatives holding on to lead: poll - CBC News". CBC. August 31, 2019. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  6. ^ "Manitoba PCS Have the Lead, but Kinew is the Most Popular Leader".
  7. ^ "Pollster attributes inaccurate election survey to weight of northern Manitoba numbers - Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca".
  8. ^ Robertson, Dylan (June 25, 2019). "Jun 2019: No hard feelings on early Manitoba election: Poll". Winnipeg Free Press.
  9. ^ http://www.probe-research.com/documents/190402%20March%202019%20MB%20Omni%20Prov%20Party%20Standings.pdf [dead link]
  10. ^ "NDP Make Gains in Manitoba but PCS Still Lead".
  11. ^ "Pallister PCS Extend Lead over NDP".
  12. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on December 28, 2018. Retrieved December 28, 2018.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  13. ^ "Pallister PCS Maintain Healthy Lead over NDP as Liberals Gain Five".
  14. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on November 4, 2018. Retrieved October 30, 2018.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  15. ^ "Pallister PCS Still Ahead in Manitoba".
  16. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 4, 2018.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  17. ^ "Pallister PCS Widen Lead over NDP".
  18. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on April 23, 2018. Retrieved April 23, 2018.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  19. ^ "New poll suggests Wab Kinew's NDP barely trails Brian Pallister's PCS - Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca".
  20. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on December 29, 2017. Retrieved December 28, 2017.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  21. ^ Lett, Dan (October 20, 2017). "Oct 2017: Support for Pallister gov't drops after 18 months of cuts, controversy". Winnipeg Free Press.
  22. ^ Lett, Dan (July 3, 2017). "Jul 2017: Tories' honeymoon already over". Winnipeg Free Press.
  23. ^ "47% Support Pallister PCS, but Low Grades for Healthcare; Carbon Tax".
  24. ^ Martin, Nick (April 9, 2017). "Apr 2017: Pallister government's popularity holding firm: Poll". Winnipeg Free Press.
  25. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on January 1, 2017. Retrieved January 1, 2017.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  26. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on January 1, 2017. Retrieved January 1, 2017.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  27. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on January 1, 2017. Retrieved January 1, 2017.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)

Further reading

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