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Transition Integrity Project
Formation2019
Founder
TypeShort-term project
PurposeTo identify risks to a free, fair and peaceful 2020 and 2024 election
Location
  • United States
MethodsSimulation exercises
Key people
Parent organization
The Heritage Foundation
Websitetransitionintegrityproject.net

Transition Integrity Project (TIP) was a series of political scenario exercises in the United States at the beginning of June 2020, involving a bipartisan[1][2][3][4] mix over 100 current and former senior government and campaign leaders, academics, journalists, polling experts and former federal and state government officials from both the Republican and Democratic parties [1][2][3][4].

The group was formed as a response to what it perceived as Donald Trump's attempts to undermine the democratic process and the legitimacy of the vote. In 2020, it began a series of hypothetical scenarios similar to a Wargame which outlined potential outcomes for the then-upcoming 2020 presidential election based on either a clear Trump win, a clear Biden win, an ambiguous outcome or a contested election.[1] [2] [3]

The exercises were designed to outline dangers which could face the democratic process, as well as majority vote and the peaceful transfer of power, due to a statement by Donald Trump in which he stated he may not abide by the results of the election[1][2][5][6] TIP is not an organization, but rather a short-term project run under the auspices of The Heritage Foundation.[7][4]

The project has also been erroneously used by some right-wing commentators as part of a conspiracy theory to suggest that its 2020 series of politial scenarios are proof of a plan to incite civil war by The Democratic Party. Mentions of "civil war" have been shown by non-profit group GPAHE to be a common term used among neo-nazis, white supremacists and the far-right and has links to violent extremism.[3]

Background

The Transition Integrity Project was initially organized in late 2019[3] by Rosa Brooks, a law professor at Georgetown and former Pentagon senior official, and Nils Gilman, a former vice chancellor of the University of California, Berkeley and historian at the Berggruen Institute. Other participants in the Transition Integrity Project's exercises included:[5][8][9]

The Transition Integrity Project (TIP) was launched "out of concern that the Trump Administration may seek to manipulate, ignore, undermine or disrupt the 2020 presidential election and transition process."[3]

History and context

Peaceful presidential transitions are seen as a hallmark of republican democracy in the United States.[11] Even when there have been rancorous differences between the political parties and their presidential nominees, the defeated party nominee has always conceded the presidency to the electoral winner.

TIP was motivated to do a short term project by their assessment that the November elections would "be marked by a chaotic legal and political landscape. We also assess that President Trump is likely to contest the result by both legal and extra-legal means, in an attempt to hold onto power."[3]

Trump's own statements have fueled concerns about the peaceful transition of power.[12] In an interview with Chris Wallace in July, 2020, Donald Trump refused to say whether or not he would accept the results of the 2020 election.[13]

A day later, Trump tweeted about postponing the 2020 election, spurring concerns that he might attempt to delay the election due to unspecified and unsubstantiated voter fraud. "With Universal Mail-In Voting (not Absentee Voting, which is good), 2020 will be the most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT Election in history. It will be a great embarrassment to the USA. Delay the Election until people can properly, securely and safely vote???"[14][15][16][17][18]

In the history of the United States, the presidential election has never been postponed, and the president does not have the legal power to delay an election, whose date is set by an 1845 law.[19][20][21][22] Representative Jerry Nadler, chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, noted that only the Congress has the authority to change laws that deal with the date of the election.[23]

Trump also claimed that mail balloting leads to widespread fraud, making a distinction between universal mail-in Voting and absentee voting. "Absentee Ballots are a great way to vote for the many senior citizens, military, and others who can't get to the polls on Election Day. These ballots are very different from 100% Mail-In Voting, which is 'RIPE for FRAUD,' and shouldn't be allowed!"[24] Fact checkers say there is no evidence of substantial fraud associated with mail voting.[25][26][27] Many studies show that postal voting has an extremely small risk of fraud. Known instances of such fraud are very rare,[28] with one database finding 491 cases of absentee ballot fraud from 2000 to 2012, a period in which billions of votes were cast.[29] A Washington Post analysis found that officials identified just 372 possible cases of double voting or voting on behalf of deceased people out of about 14.6 million votes cast by mail in the 2016 and 2018 general elections, or 0.0025 percent.[30] All mailed-in ballots in all states are verified before they are counted, regardless of whether they are cast in an all-mail state, said Wendy Underhill, direction of elections and redistricting at the NCSL.[31]

Trump has also claimed that Democrats' efforts to expand the availability of mail-in voting and ballot collection will result in widespread voter fraud.[24] Democrats see this as Trump laying the groundwork for a contested election. This outcome could be especially likely in the event of a so-called "Red Mirage", where Trump appears to have won on election night but actually loses after all of the mail-in ballots have been tallied.[32] Democrats also became concerned that Trump might interfere with the ability of the United States Postal Service to deliver ballots.[33]

In September 2020, a federal judge issued an injunction against the recent USPS actions, ruling that Trump and Postmaster Louis DeJoy were "involved in a politically motivated attack on the efficiency of the Postal Service," adding that the 14 states requesting the injunction "demonstrated that this attack on the Postal Service is likely to irreparably harm the states' ability to administer the 2020 general election."[34]

On September 25, 2020, Donald Trump repeated his concerns that "ballots were a disaster" and he refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power, insisting on a "continuation of power" instead.[35]

War games

Methodology

In the summer of 2020, TIP conducted a series of war-gaming exercises.[36] The scenarios[3][37] examined by TIP included:

  1. Game One: Ambiguous. The first game investigated a scenario in which the outcome of the election remained unclear from election night and throughout gameplay. The results from three states are in contention and ballots are destroyed in one of the states, making it unclear who should have won that state. Neither campaign is willing to concede.
  2. Game Two: Clear Biden Win. Biden wins both the Electoral College and the popular vote. Trump alleges fraud and takes steps to benefit himself and his family but ultimately hands the White House over to Biden.
  3. Game Three: Clear Trump Win. The third hypothetical scenario started with an Electoral College victory for President Trump (286 to 252), but a popular vote win (52% to 47%) for former Vice President Biden. In this hypothetical scenario, Trump legitimises an Electoral College victory and to cast doubt on the legitimacy of a victory via the popular vote, and then works to push through redistricting to maximise GOP control, and then cracks down on protests to the win under the banner of "law and order" and on defeating perceived anarchist instigators.[38] Biden, who initially conceded on election night[39], retracts his concession and attacks the electoral college, and on the grounds of widespread voter suppression by the GOP. In this hypothetical scenario, Biden then encourages North Carolina, Wisconsin and Michigan to ask for recounts.[40] In response, Trump's GOP attempts to convince moderate Democrats in the House to support the electoral college victory[41], on the basis that the popular votes in these states were questionable due to voter suppression, but fails to sway any to support his victory via the Electoral College[42]. This then leads to a full-blown constitutional crisis characterised by political chaos and widespread partisan hostility and violence[43]. The hypothetical response to this widespread constitutional crisis, Biden then encourages California, Oregon and Washington, known as "Cascadia" to threaten secession unless widespread structural reforms are put in place to ensure majority rule, with Obama suggesting to Biden that: Washington DC and Puerto Rico gain statehood, California be divided into 5 states, impose a retirement age of 70 for supreme court justices, and most importantly, eliminate the electoral college to prevent this issue from occurring. [44] The GOP response to this is to position Trump as a "unifier" and characterise the Democrats as attempting to orchestrate an illegal coup, with Trump prioritising safety and security from "radical groups".[44] The hypothetical scenario then concludes with an impasse between Biden and Trump. Trump blames anarchists and radical groups supporting Joe Biden attempting to destroy America, and Biden provokes a breakdown in a joint session of Congress by getting the House of Representatives to agree to award the presidency to Joe Bide, which is opposed by Trump, and leaves America without a president-elect and uncertainty as to what the military would do in this situation.[45]
  4. Game Four: Narrow Biden Win. The final scenario explored a narrow Biden win where he leads with less than 1% of the popular vote and has a slim lead at 278 electoral votes. The Trump campaign sows chaos but Senate Republicans and the Joint Chiefs of Staff eventually signal that they accept Biden's win. Trump refuses to leave and is removed by the Secret Service.

Conclusions

In August 2020, TIP released a report[3] outlining its findings and recommendations. The report stated, "We […] assess that the [sic] President Trump is likely to contest the result by both legal and extra-legal means, in an attempt to hold onto power. Recent events, including the President's own unwillingness to commit to abiding by the results of the election, the Attorney General's embrace of the President's groundless electoral fraud claims, and the unprecedented deployment of federal agents to put down leftwing protests, underscore the extreme lengths to which President Trump may be willing to go in order to stay in office."[3] The report's intention was to inspire the necessary changes to ensure a fair election in 2020. "These risks can be mitigated; the worst outcomes of the exercises are far from a certainty. The purpose of this report is not to frighten, but to spur all stakeholders to action."

Analysis

The TIP report sparked a national conversation about risks to the 2020 election and transition and means of mitigating those risks.[46][47][48][49][50][51][52] The TIP team admitted that they didn't game out two areas of interest: post-election legal actions and media, including social media, actions after the election. These shortcomings were simulated in another post-election simulation run in October.[53]

Similar efforts by conservative groups

Two American conservative think tanks, the Texas Public Policy Foundation and the Claremont Institute, assembled a team of constitutional scholars and experts in other relevant fields (election law, foreign affairs, law enforcement, and media) and performed a similar set of exercises.[54] They gamed out three scenarios:

  1. Game One: Clear Trump Win. Trump eventually wins 32 states and 322 Electoral College votes, but the announcement is delayed for days or weeks to allow time for counting mail-in ballots.
  2. Game Two: Clear Biden Win. Biden eventually wins 26 states and Washington, D.C., which gives him 342 Electoral College votes, but the announcement is delayed for days or weeks to allow time for counting mail-in ballots.
  3. Game Three: Ambiguous. The final election results of several states are the subject of intense court fights that disrupt voting by the Electoral College and certification of the election by Congress. Eventually these fights end up being argued before the Supreme Court.

They concluded that even in the face of public unrest and attempted interference by Russia and China, the constitutional order would prevail.

Aftermath: How did the scenario projections hold up?

Donald Trump lost the popular vote by a wide margin (over 7 million votes nationally)[55][56] and the electoral college by the same margin as Trump won the White House in 2016: 306/232 in Biden's favor.[57][58]

Having lost the popular vote and failing to secure the 270 electoral college votes required to win the Presidency, Trump claimed widespread fraud. He ordered his legal team to file dozens of court cases throughout the country. To date, they won one case and 59 were dropped by his own attorneys, dismissed by courts before evidence was presented, or had rulings against Trump's efforts.[59][60][61][62][63][64][65]

The day after Trump's lawyers abandoned their court case in Michigan courts, Trump summoned Michigan state Senate Majority Leader Mike Shirkey and House Speaker Lee Chatfield to the White House to discuss having the legislature ignore the loss at the ballot box and certify electors favorable to him. Biden won Michigan by 150,000 votes. Such a move would be unprecedented and may be illegal according to Michigan law.[66][67] [68][69]

Trump also unsuccessfully personally pressured the Governor of Georgia, Republican Brian Kemp, to overturn the election.[70][71][72]

Since the election, Trump raised money allegedly for legal costs related to overturning the election. Trump sources claim hundreds of millions in donations to date. However, the fund raising materials spell out that the vast majority of donations are not going toward funding litigation to overturn the election, but rather, to his new Leadership PAC, "Save America," which allows the money to be spent on virtually anything including direct payments to Trump himself.[73][74][75]

Thus, much of scenario two of the war games has played out.

In addition, on January 6, 2021, the day Congress met to certify the votes of the Electoral College, Donald Trump held a rally in front of the White House[76] calling for a march on the Capital which resulted in a riot. This was the first such attack on the U.S. Capitol since | Puerto Rican Nationalists attacked Congress in 1954. Violence was also one of the possible outcomes that the TIP report suggested.

In response, Nancy Pelosi, The Speaker of the House, and many Democrats called for one article of Impeachment[77] against Donald J. Trump for, "Incitement of Insurrection".[78][79][80] Donald Trump was impeached by the House of Representatives for a second time on January 13, 2021.

Shortly before Twitter disabled Trump's account on January 8, 2021, he finally conceded the election in a tweet, saying, "To all of those who have asked, I will not be going to the Inauguration on January 20th," and "new administration will be inaugurated on January 20"[81]

Use in far-right civil war narrative

The project has been used by right-wing pundits as a basis of asserting that a Civil war within the United States is or was imminent, with the most notable proponent of this theory being right-wing commentator Tim Pool, who pointed to the project as supposed evidence of a Democrat-led or planned civil war.

Pool made the claim on his August 3, 2020 Tim Pool Daily News podcast titled "Democrats Run War Games Where They Predict They'll Push For Secession And Civil War" stating that "In the games every scenario predicted street clashes and rioting"[82]. Rioting and violence was only predicted by the project in the event of a Trump victory via the electoral college, and political maneuvering undertaken by the Trump GOP to force the Democratic party into more extreme activity, namely threatening secession as a means of obtaining reforms to the Supreme Court and an eventual path to abolition of the electoral college.[3]

On 1 November 2024 in a discussion with Sam Seder, Tim Pool mentioned the project while discussing the possibility of a civil war within the United States. Seder dismissed the idea, stating that he thought that it was unlikely and that the January 6 United States Capitol attack was carried out entirely by right-wing Trump supporters, stating that it was very unlikely to imagine Kamala Harris supporters, or Democrats to carry out such an attack. Pool retorted to the scenario in an attempt to suggest that the Democrats were advocating some form of civil war.[83]

Pool mis-stated the hypothetical scenario, attempting to suggest that the hypothetical scenario proposed "Oregon and California must secede from the union" in [83][84], however, the scenario writers themselves wrote that the action of seccession was as a response to widespread violence and civil unrest which had been instigated by the Trump GOP, which had also created conditions to force the Biden campaign into taking the provocative and unprecedented actions, including the seccession, as a means of ensuring that reforms would be enacted to ensure majority rule and the peaceful transfer of power.[3]

The project itself, a bipartisan group which was comprised of over 100 former senior government officials and campaign managers[3][1][2] does not make any suggested actions and does not suggest as Pool stated that west-coast states "must secede from the Union, but instead illustrates the potential risks to democracy posed via extremism, violence and intimidation and highlight these to all parties, both Democrat and Republican and to remind the public of actions that could be taken to protect democracy from anti-democratic actions.[3] The project also stated that it also considered and included the possibility that given Trump's previous actions, they could be emboldened or persuaded to take similarly undemocratic actions out of perceived self-defence.[3]

Republican and Democratic members of the project stated it was formed because of Donald Trump's previous actions to try and undermine the legitimacy of the vote by declaring mail-in ballots as fraudulent.[3] In 2024, Adam Ellwanger, professor of English at University of Houston and author for the project stated in an interview with PBS that he also saw lawfare and weaponisation of the government occurring within the Democratic Party, but also stated what the 2020 project suggested, which was that the Heritage Foundation would mirror what Trump was doing and attempt to de-legitimise the voting process by suggesting those running it could not be trusted.

Non-profit Global Project Against Hate and Extremism (GPAHE) research has suggested that the term "civil war" and its use within the right wing and far-right is associated with violent extremism, with fantasies about civil war feature prominently among far-right extremists and that in 2024 searches for the term had grown by over 1244% following the attempted assassination of Donald Trump.[85]

The group stated that several White nationalist groups such as the Groypers led by neo-nazi Nick Fuentes, far-right 4chan groups, and neo-fascist group The Proud Boys mentioned frequently "civil war" as an ideological talking point, or directly stated they wished for a civil war to begin so that violence against other groups could begin.[85] Similarly the group noticed that video company Rumble (company), which hosts many right-wing and far-right personalities, including right-wing commentator Tim Pool, had many comments inciting violence and inferring that civil war was being incited by "left libtards [sic]" or that the democrats themselves were attempting to incite a civil war. [85] The terms "civil war" and "revenge" were also highly prevalent on the site.[85]

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