\documentclass{article}
\usepackage{amsmath,amssymb,pgf,tikz}
\usetikzlibrary{arrows,automata}
\begin{document}

\begin{tikzpicture}[auto]
\tikzstyle{node} = [circle, draw,text width=4.5em, text badly centered, node distance=3cm, inner sep=0pt]
\node [node] (node0) {Stagnant market};
\node [node,above left of=node0,yshift=1cm] (node1) {Bull market};
\node [node,above right of=node0,yshift=1cm] (node2) {Bear market};
\path (node0) edge [bend left,->,thick] node [pos=0.5] { 0.02} (node1);
\path (node1.south east) edge [bend left,->,thick] node [pos=0.5,below left] { 0.005} (node0);
\path (node1) edge [bend left,->,thick] node [pos=0.5] { 0.02} (node2);
\path (node2) edge [bend left,->,thick] node [pos=0.5] { 0.2} (node0);
\path (node2) edge [bend left,->,thick] node [above,pos=0.5] { 0.3} (node1);
\path (node2.south west) edge [bend right,<-,thick] node [pos=0.5,below right] { 0.4} (node0);
\end{tikzpicture}

\end{document}