Atlantische Hurrikansaison 2021
Vorlage:Short description Vorlage:Infobox hurricane season The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is a future event in the annual tropical cyclone season in the Northern Hemisphere. The season officially begins on June 1, 2021, and ends on November 30, 2021. These dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin and is adopted by convention. However, the formation of tropical cyclones is possible at any time of the year. Starting with this hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) will begin issuing regular Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15, two weeks earlier than they used to do so in the past, while the NHC, the National Weather Service (NWS), and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) discuss whether or not to move up the official start of the hurricane season to May.[1][2]
Seasonal forecasts
| Source | Date | Named storms |
Hurricanes | Major hurricanes |
Ref |
| Average (1981–2010) | 12.1 | 6.4 | 2.7 | [3] | |
| Record high activity | 30 | 15 | 7 | Vorlage:Atlantic hurricane best track | |
| Record low activity | 4 | 2† | 0† | [4] | |
| ––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– | |||||
| TSR | December 9, 2020 | 16 | 7 | 3 | [5] |
| * June–November only † Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all) | |||||
In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Hurricane and Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk, the United Kingdom's Met Office, and Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray and their associates at Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. According to NOAA and CSU, the average Atlantic hurricane season between 1981 and 2010 contained roughly 12 tropical storms, six hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 66–103 units.[6][5] NOAA typically categorizes a season as either above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE Index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season are considered occasionally as well.[6]
Pre-season forecast
On December 9, 2020, the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) issued an extended range forecast for the 2021 season, predicting activity that is above normal. In this report, the organization predicts 16 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. The main factor behind their prediction is the expected development of a weak La Niña by the third quarter of 2021.[5] Vorlage:Clear
Storm names
The following names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2021. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2022. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2027 season. This is the same list used in the 2015 season, with the exceptions of Elsa and Julian, which replaced Erika and Joaquin, respectively.
If all 21 names on this list are used, any subsequent storms in 2021 are currently expected to take their names from the Greek alphabet as seen in the 2005 and 2020 seasons.[7] During the WMO's spring 2021 meeting, a discussion on the Greek alphabet's usage and its future is also expected to occur as the prompted questions and concerns about the naming method.[8]
See also
- Tropical cyclones in 2021
- Atlantic hurricane season
- 2021 Pacific hurricane season
- 2021 Pacific typhoon season
- 2021 North Indian Ocean cyclone season
- South-West Indian Ocean cyclone seasons: 2020–21, 2021–22
- Australian region cyclone seasons: 2020–21, 2021–22
- South Pacific cyclone seasons: 2020–21, 2021–22
References
External links
- National Hurricane Center Website
- National Hurricane Center's Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product
- ↑ Greg Allen: Hurricane Forecasts Will Start Earlier In 2021. In: npr.org. KPBS, 26. Februar 2021, abgerufen am 27. Februar 2021.
- ↑ Adriana Navarro: NHC probing whether to change start-date of Atlantic hurricane season. AccuWeather, 26. Februar 2021, abgerufen am 27. Februar 2021.
- ↑ Background Information: The North Atlantic Hurricane Season. In: Climate Prediction Center. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 9. August 2012, abgerufen am 13. Dezember 2019.
- ↑ Referenzfehler: Ungültiges
<ref>-Tag; kein Text angegeben für Einzelnachweis mit dem Namen HURDAT. - ↑ a b c Marc Saunders, Adam Lea: Extended Range Forecast for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2021. TropicalStormRisk.com, 9. Dezember 2020.
- ↑ a b Vorlage:Cite report
- ↑ Tropical Cyclone Names. National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center, abgerufen am 11. Dezember 2020.
- ↑ Matthew Cappucci: Hurricanes Eta and Iota brought disaster to Central America. Officials can’t retire their names. In: Washington Post. Abgerufen am 23. Februar 2021 (amerikanisches Englisch).