Parlamentswahl in Spanien April 2019

Vorlage:Infobox election The next Spanish general election will be held no later than Sunday, 26 July 2020, as provided by the Spanish Constitution and the Organic Law of the General Election Regime of 1985, to elect the 13th Cortes Generales of the Kingdom of Spain. All 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies will be up for election, as well as 208 of 266 seats in the Senate.

Following the 2016 election the People's Party (PP) was forced to govern in minority, relying in Ciudadanos (Cs) and Canarian Coalition (CC) for confidence and supply. The 10-month political deadlock resulting from the 2015 election was broken in October 2016 after a party crisis within the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) brought about the ousting of its leader, Pedro Sánchez, and the party's abstention in Mariano Rajoy's investiture. Disillusionment at the choice to allow a PP government saw the party's grassroots voting Sánchez back into office in a surprise landslide in the 2017 leadership contest. Concurrently, corruption scandals affecting the ruling party gave way to a motion of no confidence tabled by Unidos Podemos which, while unsuccessful in voting down the government, saw political pressure on Rajoy increasing.

Electoral system

The Spanish Cortes Generales are regarded as an imperfect bicameral system. The Congress of Deputies has greater legislative power than the Senate, having the ability to grant or revoke confidence from a Prime Minister and to override Senate vetoes by an absolute majority of votes. Nonetheless, the Senate possesses a few exclusive, yet limited in number functions—such as its role in constitutional amendment—which are not subject to the Congress' override.

For the Congress of Deputies, 348 seats are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 3% of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold are not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Spain. Each constituency is entitled to an initial minimum of two seats, with the remaining 248 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations. Ceuta and Melilla are allocated the two remaining seats, which are elected using plurality voting.

For the Senate, 208 seats are elected using an open list partial block voting, with electors voting for individual candidates instead of parties. In constituencies electing four seats, electors can vote for up to three candidates; in those with two or three seats, for up to two candidates; and for one candidate in single-member districts. Each of the 47 peninsular provinces is allocated four seats, whereas for insular provinces, such as the Balearic and the Canary Islands, districts are the islands themselves, with the larger—Majorca, Gran Canaria and Tenerife—being allocated three seats each, and the smaller—Menorca, Ibiza-Formentera, Fuerteventura, La Gomera, El Hierro, Lanzarote and La Palma—one each. Ceuta and Melilla elect two seats each. Additionally, autonomous communities can appoint at least one senator each and are entitled to one additional seat per each million inhabitants.

The electoral law provides that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors are allowed to present lists of candidates. However, parties, federations or coalitions who have not obtained a mandate in the Assembly at the preceding election are required to secure at least the signature of 0.1 per 100 of the electors entered in electoral register of the constituency for which they are seeking election, whereas groupings of electors are required to secure the signature of 1 per 100 of electors. Electors are barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in electoral alliance to take part jointly at an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days from the election call.

The Prime Minister has the prerogative to dissolve the chambers at any given time—either jointly or separately—and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no state of emergency is in force and some time requirements are met—namely, that dissolution does not occur before one year has elapsed since the previous one—. Additionally, the chamber's dissolution is to be automatically triggered if an investiture process fails to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot. Otherwise, elected deputies and senators serve for four year terms, starting from election day.

After the experience of the political deadlock leading to the 2016 election, the electoral law was amended in order to introduce a special, simplified process for election re-runs, including a shortening of deadlines, the lifting of signature requirements if these were already met for the immediately previous election and the possibility of maintaining lists and coalitions.

Background

Economy

Immediately after the election, as ECOFIN ministers activated the sanction procedure to Spain on 12 July as a result of the country not meeting its deficit targets—which could result in a fine worth €2 billion fine and a freezing of Structural Funding—the PP caretaker government announced a future rise of the corporate tax with which it expected to collect an additional €6 billion, so as to tackle public deficit and trying to avoid the fine. This move was criticized internally, as Rajoy's caretaker government could not implement the measure until the completion of the ongoing government formation process, as well as because it clashed with one of PP's recent election pledges to lower taxes.

PSOE crisis

Vorlage:Further information Criticism of Pedro Sánchez for his electoral results and his hardline stance on Rajoy's investiture, said to be a contributing factor to the country's political deadlock, reached a boiling point after poor PSOE showings in the Basque and Galician elections. Amid calls for his resignation, Sánchez responded by announcing a party primary and congress for October–December 2016, enraging dissenters and prompting half the members of the party executive committee—the party's day-to-day ruling body—to resign on 28 September, in order to prompt Sánchez's sacking and take command themselves.

Sánchez refused to step down and entrenched himself within the party's headquarters, generating the largest crisis in the party's history, as neither side acknowledged the other's legitimacy to act in the party's name. This situation ended when Sánchez resigned after losing a key ballot to Susana Díaz's-led rebels in the party's federal committee on 1 October, being replaced by a caretaker committee which subsequently chose to allow a PP minority government in order to end the 10-month political deadlock and prevent a third election in a row.

Date of the election

Latest possible date

The next general election cannot be held later than Sunday 26 July 2020. This date is determined as follows:

Law	Requirement	Comments
Constitution: Article 68.4	The General Courts have a maximum term of four years, starting on election day.	The 2016 election was held on 26 June 2016. Four years after 26 June 2016 is 26 June 2020.
LOREG: Article 42.2	The decree calling for new elections will be automatically issued 25 days before the expiry date of the General Courts' term, and will be published the following day.	25 days before 26 June 2020 is 1 June 2020. The day after 1 June 2020 is 2 June 2020.
LOREG: Article 42.2	The election must take place within 54 days of the publication of the election call decree.	54 days after 2 June 2020 is 26 July 2020.

Opinion polls

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