Kanadische Unterhauswahl 2019

Vorlage:Infobox election The 43rd Canadian federal election (formally the 43rd Canadian general election) is scheduled to take place on or before October 21, 2019. The October 21 date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date procedures in the Canada Elections Act but the Act does not preclude the Governor General of Canada from issuing the writs of election at an earlier date.

Background

The 2015 federal election resulted in a Liberal majority government headed by Justin Trudeau. The Conservatives became the Official Opposition (with Stephen Harper announcing his resignation as party leader) and the New Democrats (NDP) became the third party. While members of the Bloc Québécois and the Greens were elected to the House, both failed to achieve the required number of MPs for official party status. Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe announced his resignation shortly after the election.

Due to Tom Mulcair failing his April 2016 leadership review by garnering only 48% of the delegate vote, the NDP will hold a leadership election in October 2017.

Electoral reform

In June 2015, Justin Trudeau pledged to reform the electoral system if elected, saying, "We are committed to ensuring that 2015 is the last election held under first-past-the-post." As the New Democrats, Bloc, and Greens were all in favour of reform of some kind, it was seen as possible that a different voting system would be in place the next federal election.

A Special Committee on Electoral Reform was formed with representatives from all five parties in the House. The committee's report, Strengthening Democracy in Canada: Principles, Process and Public Engagement for Electoral Reform, was presented in December 2016 and recommended a proportional electoral system be introduced following a national referendum. In February 2017, however, the government dropped support for electoral reform, issuing a mandate to newly appointed Minister of Democratic Institutions Karina Gould saying "A clear preference for a new electoral system, let alone a consensus, has not emerged. [...] Changing the electoral system will not be in your mandate."

Incumbent MPs not running for re-election

The following MPs have announced that they will not be running in the next federal election:

New Democratic Party

• Thomas Mulcair (Outremont)

Timeline

2015

• October 19, 2015: The Liberal Party of Canada wins a majority government in the 42nd Canadian federal election. Outgoing Prime Minister Stephen Harper announces his intention to resign as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada.
• October 22, 2015: Gilles Duceppe resigns as leader of the Bloc Québécois and is replaced on an interim-basis by Rivière-du-Nord MP Rhéal Fortin.
• November 4, 2015: Justin Trudeau is sworn in as Prime Minister of Canada.
• November 5, 2015: Sturgeon River—Parkland MP and former cabinet minister Rona Ambrose is elected interim Conservative leader.
• December 3, 2015: The 42nd Parliament is convened.

2016

• March 23, 2016: Jim Hillyer, Conservative MP for Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner, passes away after an apparent heart attack, triggering a by-election in his riding.
• April 10, 2016: 52% of delegates at the 2016 NDP convention voted in support of a leadership review motion to hold a new leadership race within 24 months. Party leader Tom Mulcair announces he will stay on as leader until his replacement is chosen.
• May 31, 2016: Hunter Tootoo, Liberal MP for Nunavut, resigns from the Liberal caucus, becoming an independent, to seek treatment for addiction.
• August 16, 2016: Mauril Bélanger, Liberal MP for Ottawa—Vanier, passes away from ALS, triggering a by-election in his riding.
• August 26, 2016: Former Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper resigns as MP for Calgary Heritage, triggering a by-election.
• September 9, 2016: Strength in Democracy, a party which had three incumbent MPs among its 17 candidates in the last election is deregistered by Elections Canada for failure to file papers maintaining its party status.
• September 23, 2016: Conservative Jason Kenney resigns as MP for Calgary Midnapore to seek the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta, triggering a by-election in his riding.
• October 24, 2016: Conservative candidate Glen Motz wins a by-election in Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner, holding the seat for his party.

2017

• January 31, 2017: Stéphane Dion, Liberal MP for Saint-Laurent, resigns to accept an appointment as Ambassador to the European Union and to Germany. On the same day, John McCallum, Liberal MP for Markham—Thornhill, resigns to accept an appointment as Ambassador to China. This triggers two by-elections in their respective ridings.
• March 18, 2017: Martine Ouellet is acclaimed as leader of the Bloc Québécois.
• April 3, 2017: Five by-elections are held, electing Liberal candidates Mona Fortier in Ottawa—Vanier, Emmanuella Lambropoulos in Saint-Laurent, and Mary Ng in Markham—Thornhill, along with Conservative candidates Bob Benzen in Calgary Heritage and Stephanie Kusie in Calgary Midnapore. All ridings are retained by their incumbent party.
• May 27, 2017: Andrew Scheer is elected as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada.
• July 4, 2017: Conservative Rona Ambrose resigns as MP for Sturgeon River—Parkland, triggering a by-election in her riding.
• August 9, 2017: Conservative Denis Lebel resigns as MP for Lac-Saint-Jean, triggering a by-election in his riding.
• August 31, 2017: Darshan Kang, MP for Calgary Skyview resigns from the Liberal caucus amid allegations of sexual harassment.
• September 14, 2017: Arnold Chan, Liberal MP for Scarborough—Agincourt, dies of cancer, triggering a by-election is his riding.
• September 30, 2017: Judy Foote, Liberal MP for Bonavista—Burin—Trinity and former Minister of Public Services and Procurement, is expected to resign as MP, triggering a by-election in her riding.
• October 1 to October 15, 2017: Time frame within which the New Democratic Party will elect its next leader.
• 2017: Gerry Ritz, Conservative MP for Battlefords—Lloydminster, is expected to resign as MP, triggering a by-election in his riding.
• 2017: Dianne Watts, Conservative MP for South Surrey—White Rock, is expected to resign as MP following her entrance into the 2018 British Columbia Liberal Party leadership election, triggering a by-election in her riding.

Opinion polls

Evolution of voting intentions in the pre-campaign period of the 43rd Canadian federal election. Trendlines are local regressions calculated from the 25 nearest polls, weighted by proximity in time and margin of error. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the regressions, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals. -- Source code for plot generation is available here.

Election spending

Before the campaign, there were no limits to what a political party, candidate, or third party (corporations, unions, special interest groups, etc.) can spend: spending rules are only in force after the writs have been dropped and the campaign has begun.

Reimbursements for political parties and candidates

Political parties receive a reimbursement for 50 per cent of their election expenses during the writ period. Similarly, electoral district associations receive a reimbursement of 60 per cent of their election expenses during the writ period. Both reimbursements are publicly funded.

Registered third parties

A person or group must register as a third party immediately after incurring election advertising expenses totalling $500 or more. There are strict limits on advertising expenses, and specific limits that can be incurred to promote or oppose the election of one or more candidates in a particular electoral district. Registered third parties are subject to an election advertising expenses limit of $150,000. Of that amount, no more than $8,788 can be incurred to promote or oppose the election of one or more candidates in a particular electoral district.

See also

• Conservative Party of Canada leadership election, 2017
• New Democratic Party leadership election, 2017
• Bloc Québécois leadership election, 2017

External links

• Elections Canada