Zum Inhalt springen

Atlantische Hurrikansaison 2019

aus Wikipedia, der freien Enzyklopädie
Dies ist eine alte Version dieser Seite, zuletzt bearbeitet am 6. Mai 2019 um 22:25 Uhr durch AnomieBOT (Diskussion | Beiträge) (Rescuing orphaned refs ("TWC" from 2017 Atlantic hurricane season)). Sie kann sich erheblich von der aktuellen Version unterscheiden.

Vorlage:Infobox hurricane season

The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season is an upcoming event in the annual formation of tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere. The season will officially begin on June 1, 2019, and end on November 30, 2019. These dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin and are adopted by convention. However, tropical cyclogenesis is possible at any time of the year.

Seasonal forecasts

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2019 season
Source Date Named
storms
Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
Average (1981–2010)[1]

12.1 6.4 2.7
Record high activity 28 15 7
Record low activity 4 2 0
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
TSR[2] December 11, 2018 12 5 2
AccuWeather[3] April 3, 2019 12–14 5–7 2–4
CSU[4] April 4, 2019 13 5 2
TSR[5] April 5, 2019 12 5 2
NCSU[6] April 16, 2019 13–16 5–7 2–3
TWC[7] May 6, 2019 14 7 3
* June–November only.
† Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all)

Ahead of and during the season, several national meteorological services and scientific agencies forecast how many named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) will form during a season and/or how many tropical cyclones will affect a particular country. These agencies include the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Consortium of University College London, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. Some of these forecasts also take into consideration what happened in previous seasons and the state of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. On average, an Atlantic hurricane season between 1981 and 2010 contained twelve tropical storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of between 66 and 103 units.[1]

Pre-season outlooks

The first forecast for the year was released by TSR on December 11, 2018, which predicted a slightly below-average season in 2019, with a total of 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, due to the anticipated presence of El Niño conditions during the season.[2] On April 4, 2019, CSU released its forecast, predicting a near-average season of 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.[4] The next day, TSR released an updated forecast that reiterated its earlier predictions.[5] North Carolina State University released their forecast on April 16, predicting slightly-above average activity with 13–16 named storms, 5–7 hurricanes and 2–3 major hurricanes.[6] On May 6, The Weather Channel company IBM predicting slightly-above average activity with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.[1]

Vorlage:Clear

Storm names

Vorlage:See also The following list of names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2019. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2020. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2025 season. This is the same list used in the 2013 season, with the exception of the name Imelda, which replaced Ingrid.

Season effects

This is a table of all the storms that have formed in the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s), denoted in parentheses, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a tropical wave, or a low, and all the damage figures are in USD. Potential tropical cyclones are not included in this table.

Vorlage:Saffir-Simpson small

Vorlage:TC stats table start3

Vorlage:TC stats table end3

See also

Portal: Tropical cyclones – Übersicht zu Wikipedia-Inhalten zum Thema Tropical cyclones

Vorlage:Clear

References

Vorlage:Reflist

Vorlage:TC Decades

  1. a b Background Information: The North Atlantic Hurricane Season. In: Climate Prediction Center. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 9. August 2012, abgerufen am 13. Dezember 2013.
  2. a b Mark Saunders, Adam Lea: Extended Range Forecast for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2019. Tropical Storm Risk, 11. Dezember 2018;.
  3. AccuWeather's 2019 Atlantic hurricane season forecast. In: www.accuweather.com. Abgerufen am 6. April 2019.
  4. a b 2019 Hurricane Season Expected to Be Near Average, Colorado State University Outlook Says. In: The Weather Channel. Abgerufen am 4. April 2019 (amerikanisches Englisch).
  5. a b Mark Saunders, Adam Lea: April Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2019. Tropical Storm Risk, 5. April 2019;.
  6. a b Tracey Peake: NC State Researchers Predict Normal 2019 Hurricane Season for East Coast. NC State University, 16. April 2019;.
  7. Tropical Storm Arlene Forms in the Atlantic; No Threat to Land. The Weather Channel, 20. April 2017, abgerufen am 20. April 2017.