The next Spanish general election will be held no later than Sunday, 26 July 2020, as provided by the Spanish constitution[1] and the Organic Law of the General Election Regime of 1985.[2] It will open the 13th Legislature of Spain, to elect the 13th Cortes Generales of the Kingdom of Spain. All 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies will be up for election, as well as 208 of 266 seats in the Senate.
The 2016 election proved inconclusive, with the People's Party (PP) coming out strengthened but with neither the PP–C's nor the PSOE–Unidos Podemos blocs being able to command a large enough majority to ensure governance alone. In the end, after a 10-month political deadlock, Mariano Rajoy was able to become Prime Minister thanks to PSOE's abstention, after the party suffered an internal crisis which resulted in the ousting of its leader, Pedro Sánchez.
Overview
Electoral system
The Spanish legislature, the Cortes Generales (Spanish for General Courts) is composed of two chambers:
- The lower chamber, the Congress of Deputies.
- The upper chamber, the Senate.
This bicameral system is regarded as asymmetric, because while legislative initiative belongs to both chambers (as well as to the Government), the Congress of Deputies has greater legislative power than the Senate, and it can also override most of the Senate initiatives by an absolute majority of votes. Also, only Congress has the ability to grant or revoke confidence from a Prime Minister. Nonetheless, the Senate possesses a few exclusive functions which are not subject to the Congress' override, but these are limited.[3]
Settled customary practice has been to dissolve and re-elect both chambers at the same time, thus triggering a "general" election. Article 115 of the Spanish Constitution allows, however, for each chamber to be elected separately. The electoral system in Spain is on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot.
- Congress of Deputies
For the Congress of Deputies, 348 members are elected in 50 multi-member districts using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional representation for four-year terms. In addition, Ceuta and Melilla elect one member each using plurality voting. Each district is entitled to an initial minimum of two seats, with the remaining 248 seats being allocated among the 50 provinces in proportion to their populations. Only lists polling above 3% of the total vote in each district (which includes blank ballots—for none of the above) are entitled to enter the seat distribution. However, in most districts there is a higher effective threshold at the constituency level, depending on the district magnitude.[4]
- Senate
For the Senate, each of the 47 peninsular districts (the provinces) is assigned four seats. For the insular provinces, the Balearic Islands and Canary Islands, districts are the islands themselves, with the larger—Mallorca, Gran Canaria, and Tenerife—being assigned three seats each, and the smaller—Menorca, Ibiza-Formentera, Fuerteventura, Gomera, Hierro, Lanzarote and La Palma—one each. Ceuta and Melilla are assigned two seats each, for a total of 208 directly elected seats. The system used is that of limited voting. In districts electing four seats, electors may vote for up to three candidates; in those with two or three seats, for up to two candidates; and for one candidate in single-member constituencies. Electors vote for individual candidates; those attaining the largest number of votes in each district are elected for four-year terms.
In addition, the legislative assemblies of the autonomous communities are entitled to appoint at least one senator each, and one senator for every million inhabitants, adding a variable number of appointed seats to the 208 directly-elected senators.[5] This appointment usually does not take place at the same time as the general election, but after the autonomous communities hold their respective elections.
Eligibility
Dual membership of both chambers of the Cortes or of the Cortes and regional assemblies is prohibited, meaning that candidates must resign from regional assemblies if elected. Active judges, magistrates, ombudsmen, serving military personnel, active police officers and members of constitutional and electoral tribunals are also ineligible,[6] as well as CEOs or equivalent leaders of state monopolies and public bodies, such as the Spanish state broadcaster RTVE.[7] Additionally, under the Political Parties Law, June 2002, parties and individual candidates may be prevented from standing by the Spanish Supreme Court if they are judicially perceived to discriminate against people on the basis of ideology, religion, beliefs, nationality, race, gender or sexual orientation, foment or organise violence as a means of achieving political objectives or support or compliment the actions of "terrorist organisations".[8]
Following changes to the electoral law which took effect for the 2007 municipal elections, candidates' lists must be composed of at least 40% of candidates of either gender and each group of five candidates must contain at least two males and two females.[9]
Parties and coalitions of different parties which have registered with the Electoral Commission can present lists of candidates. Groups of electors which have not registered with the Commission can also present lists, provided that they obtain the signatures of 1% of registered electors in a particular district. Also since 30 January 2011, political parties without representation in any of the Chambers in the previous general election are required to obtain the signatures of 0.1% of registered electors in the districts they want to stand for in order to present lists for those districts.[7][10]
Background
Economy
Immediately after the election, as ECOFIN ministers activated the sanction procedure to Spain on 12 July as a result of the country not meeting its deficit targets—which could result in a fine worth €2 billion fine and a freezing of Structural Funding—the PP caretaker government announced a future rise of the corporate tax with which it expected to collect an additional €6 billion, so as to tackle public deficit and trying to avoid the fine.[11][12] This move was criticized internally, as Rajoy's caretaker government could not implement the measure until the completion of the ongoing government formation process, as well as because it clashed with one of PP's recent election pledges to lower taxes.[13][14]
Government formation
PSOE crisis
Vorlage:Further information Criticism of Pedro Sánchez for his electoral results and his hardline stance on Rajoy's investiture, said to be a contributing factor to the country's political deadlock, reached a boiling point after poor PSOE showings in the Basque and Galician elections.[15] Amid calls for his resignation, Sánchez responded by announcing a party primary and congress for October–December 2016, enraging dissenters and prompting half the members of the party executive committee—the party's day-to-day ruling body—to resign on 28 September, in order to prompt Sánchez's sacking and take command themselves.
Sánchez refused to step down and entrenched himself within the party's headquarters, generating the largest crisis in the party's history, as neither side acknowledged the other's legitimacy to act in the party's name.[16] This situation ended when Sánchez resigned after losing a key ballot to Susana Díaz's-led rebels in the party's federal committee on 1 October,[17] being replaced by a caretaker committee and leaving behind a shattered PSOE.[18] Subsequently, the new party's leadership chose to allow a PP minority government in order to end the 10-month political deadlock.[19]
Candidates
People's Party (PP)
Presumptive incumbent
- Mariano Rajoy, Prime Minister since 2011; President of the PP since 2004; Member of the Congress of Deputies 1986 and since 1989; Leader of the Opposition 2004–2011; Secretary General of the PP 2003–2004; Minister for the Presidency 2000–2001 and 2002–2003; Government Spokesperson 2002–2003; Minister for Home Affairs 2001–2002; First Deputy Prime Minister 2000–2003; Minister for Education and Culture 1999–2000; Minister for the Public Administration Services 1996–1999; Vice-President of Galicia 1986–1987; President of the Provincial Deputation of Pontevedra 1983–1986; City Councillor of Pontevedra 1983–1986; Member of the Parliament of Galicia 1981–1985[20][21]
| Portrait | Name | Party | Born | Most recent position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Mariano Rajoy | 
|
Vorlage:dts ist VERALTET – siehe dort. (age Vorlage:Age nts) |
Congress of Deputies MP (1989–present) President of the PP (2004–present) Prime Minister (2011–present) |
Potential
- Pablo Casado, Vice-Secretary General for Communication of the PP since 2015; Member of the Congress of Deputies since 2011; Member of the Assembly of Madrid 2007–2009[22][23]
- Cristina Cifuentes, President of the Community of Madrid since 2015; Government Delegate in Madrid 2012–2015; Member of the Assembly of Madrid 1991–2012 and since 2015; First Vice-President of the Assembly of Madrid 2005–2012[23]
- María Dolores de Cospedal, Minister for Defence since 2016; Member of the Congress of Deputies since 2016; Secretary General of the PP since 2008; President of the PP of Castile-La Mancha since 2006; Cortes of Castilla-La Mancha 2007–2016; President of Castilla-La Mancha 2011–2015; Senator from Castile-La Mancha 2006–2011; Regional Minister for Transport and Infrastructures of the Community of Madrid 2004–2006; Under Secretary of State for Home Affairs 2002–2004; Under Secretary of State for Public Administration Services 2000–2002[23][24]
- Íñigo de la Serna, Minister for Public Works since 2016; Member of the Parliament of Cantabria 2015–2016; Mayor of Santander 2007–2016; City Councillor of Santander 2003–2016[23][25]
- Alberto Núñez Feijóo, President of Galicia since 2009; President of the PPdeG since 2006; Member of the Parliament of Galicia since 2005; Vice-President of Galicia 2004–2005; Regional Minister for Regional Policy, Public Works and Housing 2003–2005[23][26][27]
- Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, Ministry for the Regional Administrations since 2016; Deputy Prime Minister since 2011; Minister for the Presidency since 2011; Member of the Congress of Deputies since 2004; Government Spokesperson 2011–2016; People's Group Spokesperson in Congress 2008–2011; Secretary for Autonomic and Local Policy of the PP 2004–2008[23][28]
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Potential
- Josep Borrell, Member of the European Parliament 2004–2009; President of the European Parliament 2004–2007; Member of the Congress of Deputies 1993–2004; Minister for Environmental Affairs 1993–1996; Minister for Public Works and Transport 1991–1996; Secretary of State for the Treasury 1984–1991[29][30]
- Susana Díaz, President of Andalusia since 2013; Secretary General of the PSOE–A since 2013; Member of the Parliament of Andalusia since 2008; Regional Minister for the Presidency and Equality of Andalusia 2012–2013; Senator from Andalusia 2011–2012; Secretary for Organization of the PSOE–A 2010–2012; Member of the Congress of Deputies 2004–2008; City Councillor of Seville 1999–2004[31][32][33]
- Patxi López, Member of the Congress of Deputies 1987–1989 and since 2016; President of the Congress of Deputies 2016; Secretary for Political Action, Citizenship and Liberties of the PSOE 2014–2016; Secretary General of the PSE–EE 2002–2014; Member of the Basque Parliament 1991–2014; Lehendakari 2009–2012[34][35]
- Pedro Sánchez, Secretary General of the PSOE 2014–2016; Leader of the Opposition 2014–2016; Member of the Congress of Deputies 2009–2011 and 2013–2016; City Councillor of Madrid 2004–2009[36][37][38]
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| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
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Other/ None |
Vorlage:Qmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| style="background:Vorlage:Socialists' Party of Catalonia/meta/color;"| | style="background:Vorlage:Spanish Socialist Workers' Party/meta/color;"| | style="background:Vorlage:Spanish Socialist Workers' Party/meta/color;"| | style="background:Vorlage:Spanish Socialist Workers' Party/meta/color;"| | style="background:Vorlage:Spanish Socialist Workers' Party/meta/color;"| | |||||
| MyWord | 17.11.16–22.11.16 | Vorlage:Small | 12.3 | 16.2 | 17.1 | 9.3 | Vorlage:Party shading/PSOE| 35.8 | 4.6 | 4.7 |
| SocioMétrica | 31.10.16–04.11.16 | Vorlage:Small | 11.5 | 20.7 | — | 13.6 | Vorlage:Party shading/PSOE| 37.7 | 16.6 | |
| DYM | 27.09.16–06.10.16 | Vorlage:Small | — | 23.9 | — | 9.0 | Vorlage:Party shading/PSOE| 38.9 | 28.2 | |
| SocioMétrica | 26.09.16–30.09.16 | Vorlage:Small | — | 25.4 | — | 21.2 | Vorlage:Party shading/PSOE| 37.2 | 15.3 | |
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
|
|
|
|
|
Other/ None |
Vorlage:Qmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| style="background:Vorlage:Socialists' Party of Catalonia/meta/color;"| | style="background:Vorlage:Spanish Socialist Workers' Party/meta/color;"| | style="background:Vorlage:Spanish Socialist Workers' Party/meta/color;"| | style="background:Vorlage:Spanish Socialist Workers' Party/meta/color;"| | style="background:Vorlage:Spanish Socialist Workers' Party/meta/color;"| | |||||
| MyWord | 17.11.16–22.11.16 | Vorlage:Small | 9.0 | 13.9 | 14.8 | 11.5 | Vorlage:Party shading/PSOE| 19.0 | 7.8 | 24.0 |
| SocioMétrica | 31.10.16–04.11.16 | Vorlage:Small | 10.0 | 21.6 | — | 12.6 | Vorlage:Party shading/PSOE| 25.1 | 30.7 | |
| Invymark | 31.10.16–04.11.16 | Vorlage:Small | 15.7 | Vorlage:Party shading/PSOE| 28.3 | 15.5 | — | 22.0 | — | 18.5 |
| DYM | 27.09.16–06.10.16 | Vorlage:Small | — | 14.4 | — | 10.4 | Vorlage:Party shading/PSOE| 18.4 | 56.8 | |
| SocioMétrica | 26.09.16–30.09.16 | Vorlage:Small | — | 21.4 | — | 17.3 | Vorlage:Party shading/PSOE| 31.5 | 29.7 | |
Declined
- Eduardo Madina, Member of the Congress of Deputies 2004–2015 and since 2016; City Councillor of Sestao 1999–2001[39]
Potential
- Ada Colau, Mayor of Barcelona since 2015; City Councillor of Barcelona since 2015[40]
- Íñigo Errejón, Member of the Congress of Deputies since 2016; Political Secretary of Podemos since 2014[41]
- Alberto Garzón, Federal Coordinator of IU since 2016; Secretary for Constituent Process of IU 2014–2016; Secretary for Global Economic Policy of IU 2012–2014; Member of the Congress of Deputies since 2011[42]
- Pablo Iglesias, disputed as Leader of the Opposition since 2016; Member of the Congress of Deputies since 2016; Secretary General of Podemos since 2014[43][44]
- Mònica Oltra, Vice President of the Generalitat Valenciana since 2015; Regional Minister for Equality and Inclusive Policies of the Generalitat Valenciana since 2015; Spokesperson of the Generalitat Valenciana since 2015; Co-Spokesperson of Coalició Compromís since 2012; Spokesperson of the Compromís Group in the Corts Valencianes 2007–2010 and 2015; Member of the Corts Valencianes since 2007; Co-Spokesperson of Initiative of the Valencian People 2007–2014
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| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
|
|
|
.jpg?lang=de){kind=small}
|
|
Other/ None |
Vorlage:Qmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| style="background:Vorlage:En Comú Podem/meta/color;"| | style="background:Vorlage:Podemos (Spanish political party)/meta/color;"| | style="background:Vorlage:United Left (Spain)/meta/color;"| | style="background:Vorlage:Podemos (Spanish political party)/meta/color;"| | style="background:Vorlage:Coalició Compromís/meta/color;"| | |||||
| MyWord | 17.11.16–22.11.16 | Vorlage:Small | 6.9 | 18.3 | 30.7 | Vorlage:Party shading/Podemos| 35.0 | 5.9 | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| DYM | 27.09.16–06.10.16 | Vorlage:Small | — | 31.9 | — | Vorlage:Party shading/Podemos| 51.5 | — | 16.6 | |
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
|
|
|
|
|
Other/ None |
Vorlage:Qmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| style="background:Vorlage:En Comú Podem/meta/color;"| | style="background:Vorlage:Podemos (Spanish political party)/meta/color;"| | style="background:Vorlage:United Left (Spain)/meta/color;"| | style="background:Vorlage:Podemos (Spanish political party)/meta/color;"| | style="background:Vorlage:Coalició Compromís/meta/color;"| | |||||
| MyWord | 17.11.16–22.11.16 | Vorlage:Small | 4.6 | 19.8 | Vorlage:Party shading/IU| 23.6 | 14.2 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 25.6 |
| DYM | 27.09.16–06.10.16 | Vorlage:Small | — | Vorlage:Party shading/Podemos| 29.4 | — | 27.1 | — | 43.5 | |
Ciudadanos (C's)
Potential
- Inés Arrimadas, Leader of the Opposition of Catalonia since 2015; Member of the Parliament of Catalonia since 2012[45]
- Carolina Punset, Member of the European Parliament since 2016; Member of the Corts Valencianes 2015–2016; City Councillor of Altea 2007–2015[46][47]
- Albert Rivera, Member of the Congress of Deputies since 2016; President of C's since 2006; Member of the Parliament of Catalonia 2006–2015[48][49]
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Date of the election
Latest possible date
The next general election cannot be held later than Sunday 26 July 2020. This date is determined as follows:
| Law | Requirement | Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Constitution: Article 68.4[50] | The General Courts have a maximum term of four years, starting on election day. | The 2016 election was held on 26 June 2016. Four years after 26 June 2016 is 26 June 2020. |
| LOREG: Article 42.2[51] | The decree calling for new elections will be automatically issued 25 days before the expiry date of the General Courts' term, and will be published the following day. | 25 days before 26 June 2020 is 1 June 2020. The day after 1 June 2020 is 2 June 2020. |
| LOREG: Article 42.2[51] | The election must take place within 54 days of the publication of the election call decree. | 54 days after 2 June 2020 is 26 July 2020. |
Opinion polling
Vorlage:Main article Datei:OpinionPollingSpainGeneralElectionNext.png
Notes
References
- ↑ Article 68 of the Spanish Constitution of 1978
- ↑ Article 42.2 of the Organic Law of the General Election Regime of 1985
- ↑ Article 66 Summary. Abgerufen am 27. Oktober 2015.
- ↑ Effective threshold in electoral systems. Trinity College, Dublin, abgerufen am 21. Oktober 2015.
- ↑ General Aspects of the Electoral System.
- ↑ The Spanish Constitution of 1978.
- ↑ a b Law governing electoral procedures. Abgerufen am 6. März 2011.
- ↑ Law regarding registration of political parties. Abgerufen am 6. März 2011.
- ↑ OSCE observers task force report on 2008 Spanish election. (PDF) Organisation for security and cooperation in Europe OSCE, abgerufen am 6. März 2011.
- ↑ BOE.es – Documento consolidado BOE-A-1985-11672.
- ↑ ECOFIN ministers active the sanction procedure to Spain, El País, 12. Juli 2016 (spanish).
- ↑ Spain moves to attack in Brussels and hardens corporate tax, El País, 12. Juli 2016 (spanish).
- ↑ De Guindos promises Brussels a rise in corporate tax that he cannot apply, 20 Minutos, 12. Juli 2016 (spanish).
- ↑ Rajoy pledged in his manifesto to lower the corporate tax that he will now raise to meet with deficit targets, laSexta, 13. Juli 2016 (spanish).
- ↑ The electoral debacle leaves Sanchez against the ropes to his critics, La Vanguardia, 26. September 2016 (spanish).
- ↑ PSOE plunges into its largest crisis after Sánchez refused to step down following the resignation of half the executive committee, La Voz de Galicia, 29. September 2016 (spanish).
- ↑ Pedro Sánchez: Spanish Socialist leader resigns, BBC News, 1. Oktober 2016
- ↑ Sánchez resigns, PSOE implodes, El Periódico, 1. Oktober 2016 (spanish).
- ↑ Spain's Socialists vote to allow Rajoy minority government. In: BBC News. 23. Oktober 2016.
- ↑ Rajoy podrá convocar elecciones a partir del 3 de mayo si ve inviable gobernar en minoría. In: Expansión. 23. Oktober 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ Mariano Rajoy se presentará como candidato para liderar de nuevo el PP. In: lainformacion.com. 21. November 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ El nombre de Pablo Casado cobra fuerza ante el incierto futuro del PP. In: El Huffington Post. 23. März 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ a b c d e f Nueve aspirantes en la carrera por la sucesión de Mariano Rajoy. In: El Español. 1. Februar 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ Rajoy pedirá a Cospedal que deje la secretaría general del PP si aspira a ser la próxima presidenta. In: El Confidencial Digital. 14. November 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ De la Serna, ¿el nuevo delfín de Mariano?: Feijóo, el gran desplazado. In: vozpópuli. 4. November 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ Rajoy prevé asistir este sábado a la toma de posesión de Feijóo en Santiago. In: Europa Press. 11. Oktober 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ Feijóo es investido como presidente de la Xunta de Galicia por tercera vez. In: El Español. 10. November 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ Sáenz de Santamaría, vicepresidenta y enlace con Catalunya. In: El Periódico de Catalunya. 3. November 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ Josep Borrell no descarta disputar el liderazgo del PSOE: "No he dicho que no". In: eldiario.es. 24. Oktober 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ Josep Borrell no descarta presentarse a primarias a secretario general del PSOE, aunque "ahora" no piensa en ello. In: infoLibre. 24. Oktober 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ Susana Díaz da un paso al frente y se postula como secretaria general del PSOE. In: El Mundo. 28. September 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ El PSOE andaluz quiere hacerse fuerte para esperar a finales de primavera las primarias y el congreso del partido. In: eldiario.es. 23. Oktober 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ Susana Díaz prefiere ser candidata única. In: El Mundo. 20. November 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ El PSE sitúa a Patxi López como la "mejor opción" para liderar el PSOE. In: La Vanguardia. 26. Oktober 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ Patxi López se perfila como un candidato de consenso para cerrar la crisis del PSOE. In: La Nueva España. 6. November 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ Miguel Ángel Revilla asegura que Pedro Sánchez le ha dicho que se presentará a las primarias. In: 20minutos. 1. Oktober 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ Pedro Sánchez deja el escaño y lanza su candidatura a la secretaría general. In: El País. 30. Oktober 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ Pedro Sánchez y siete barones del PSOE preparan la batalla contra Susana Díaz. In: El Mundo. 20. November 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ Eduardo Madina descarta disputar el liderazgo del PSOE: "Segundas partes nunca fueron buenas". In: eldiario.es. 26. Oktober 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ El Plan 2019 de Colau: se da tres años para desbancar a Pablo Iglesias. In: El Confidencial. 7. November 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ Íñigo Errejón no se rinde e insiste en dar batalla a Pablo Iglesias. In: El Mundo. 13. November 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ Alberto Garzón quiere "superar IU en un nuevo espacio político lo antes posible". In: El País. 21. November 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ Iglesias se proclama líder de la oposición y defiende un Podemos "militante". In: infoLibre. 7. Oktober 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ Pablo Iglesias presentará su candidatura en 2017 para seguir liderando Podemos. In: 20minutos. 9. Oktober 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ Inés Arrimadas, la alumna aventajada de Ciudadanos: "Es un bendito problema que me comparen con Rivera". In: ABC. 23. Mai 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ Punset baraja ya presentar una candidatura alternativa a Rivera. In: El Mundo. 17. November 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ Carolina Punset condiciona su candidatura alternativa a Albert Rivera a que haya "juego limpio". In: ABC. 17. November 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ Rivera se presentará a la reelección como líder de Ciudadanos. In: El Español. 7. November 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ Ciudadanos se enfrenta a su congreso de madurez. In: La Vanguardia. 16. November 2016 (spanisch).
- ↑ Spanish Constitution of 1978; Title III. Of the General Courts, Chapter I. Of the Chambers. congreso.es, abgerufen am 9. Februar 2013.
- ↑ a b Organic Law 5/1985, of June 19, of the General Electoral System; Title I. Chapter V. General requirements of the calling of elections. noticias.juridicas.com, abgerufen am 11. August 2013.