Vorlage:Infobox hurricane season
The 2014–15 South Pacific cyclone season will be the period of the year when most tropical cyclones form within the South Pacific Ocean to the east of 160°E. The season will officially run from November 1, 2014 to April 30, 2015, however a tropical cyclone could form at any time between July 1, 2014 and June 30, 2015 and will count towards the season total. During the season, tropical cyclones will be officially monitored by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) in Nadi, Fiji and the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centers in Brisbane, Australia and Wellington, New Zealand. The United States Armed Forces through the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), will also monitor the basin and issue unofficial warnings for American interests. RSMC Nadi attaches a number and an F suffix to tropical disturbances that form in or move into the basin while the JTWC designates significant tropical cyclones with a number and a P suffix. RSMC Nadi, TCWC Wellington and TCWC Brisbane all use the Australian Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale and estimate windspeeds over a period of ten minutes, while the JTWC estimated sustained winds over a 1-minute period, which are subsequently compared to the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHS).
Seasonal forecasts
| Source/Record | Tropical Cyclone |
Severe Tropical Cyclone |
Ref |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record high: | 1997–98: 16 | 1982–83:10 | [1] |
| Record low: | 2003–04: 3 | 2008–09: 0 | [1] |
| Averages: | 7.9 | 3.5 | [2] |
| NIWA | 8-12 | 4 | |
| Region | Chance of above average |
Average number |
Actual activity |
| Southern Pacific | 48% | 15 | 0 |
| Western South Pacific | 56% | 8 | 0 |
| Eastern South Pacific | 47% | 11 | 0 |
| Source:BOM's Seasonal Outlooks for Tropical Cyclones.[3] | |||
Ahead of the cyclone season, RSMC Nadi, TCWC Wellington, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), the New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and various other Pacific Meteorological services, all contributed towards the Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook that was released during October 2014.[4] The outlook took into account the ENSO neutral conditions that had been observed across the Pacific and analogue seasons that had ENSO neutral and weak El Nino conditions occurring during the season.[4] The outlook called for a near average number of tropical cyclones for the 2014–15 season, with eight to twelve named tropical cyclones, to occur between 135°E and 120°W compared to an average of 10.[4] At least four of the tropical cyclones were expected to become category 3 severe tropical cyclones, while three could become category 4 severe tropical cyclones, they also noted that a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone was unlikely to occur.[4] In addition to contributing towards the Island Climate Update outlook, the BoM issued their own seasonal forecasts for the South Pacific region.[3]
The BoM issued 3 seasonal forecasts for the Southern Pacific between 142.5°E and 120°W, one for the Western Southern Pacific region between 142.5°E and 165°E and one for the Eastern Southern Pacific region between 165°E and 120°W.[3] They predicted that the region as a whole, would experience near average tropical cyclone activity during the coming season with a 55% chance of it being above average.[3] The Western region was predicted to have 39% chance of being above average while the Eastern region had a 55% chance of being above average.[3]
Storm names
Vorlage:See also Within the Southern Pacific a tropical depression is judged to have reach tropical cyclone intensity should it reach winds of 65 km/h, (40 mph) and it is evident that gales are occurring at least halfway around the center. With tropical depressions intensifying into a tropical cyclone between the Equator and 25°S and between 160°E - 120°W named by the RSMC Nadi. However should a tropical depression intensify to the south of 25°S between 160°E and 120°W it will be named in conjunction with RSMC Nadi by TCWC Wellington. Should a tropical cyclone move out of the basin and into the Australian region it will retain its original name.[5] The first name to be used this season is Nute.
See also
- List of South Pacific cyclone seasons
- Atlantic hurricane seasons: 2014, 2015
- Pacific hurricane seasons: 2014, 2015
- Pacific typhoon seasons: 2014, 2015
- North Indian Ocean cyclone seasons: 2014, 2015
- 2014–15 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season
- 2014–15 Australian region cyclone season
References
External links
- ↑ a b Vorlage:Cite report
- ↑ RSMC Nadi – Tropical Cyclone Centre: 2012/13 Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook in the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre Nadi – Tropical Cyclone Centre Area of Responsibility. Fiji Meteorological Service, 18. Oktober 2012, S. 2, archiviert vom am 18. Oktober 2012; abgerufen am 18. Oktober 2012.
- ↑ a b c d e National Climate Centre: 2014–2015 South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook. Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 15. Oktober 2014, archiviert vom am 15. Oktober 2014; abgerufen am 15. Oktober 2014.
- ↑ a b c d Referenzfehler: Ungültiges
<ref>-Tag; kein Text angegeben für Einzelnachweis mit dem Namen NIWA. - ↑ Vorlage:Cite report