User:Reiobrien77/Streamflow
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Forecasting
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For most streams especially those with a small watershed, no record of discharge is available. In that case, it is possible to make discharge estimates using the rational method or some modified version of it. However, if chronological records of discharge are available for a stream, a short term forecast of discharge can be made for a given rainstorm using a hydrograph.
In recent years, Artificial Intelligence has made it possible to perform streamflow forecasting more efficiently.
Long short-term memory networks began to gain attention in streamflow forecasting, due to their high capability to handle sequential time-series data. Ahmed et al., (2024) referenced two studies that showcase the superiority of LSTM to traditional physics-based models, like the CaMa Flood calibrated model for streamflow and climate data or SMA-SAC runoff forecasting model. Furthermore, LSTM have made their way into the river streamflow forecasting domain. (Ahmed et al., 2024) cited a source that evaluated the effectiveness of LSTM networks for daily predictions and 10-day mean flow predictions at Upper Yangtze and Hun river basins, respectively. Overall, the LSTM yielded better forecasting capabilities compared to traditional hydrological model (Ahmed et al., 2024).
Combining numerical and machine learning models can also yield greater forecasting outcomes, due to its nonlinear learning ability.
Mechanisms that cause changes in streamflow
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Rivers are always moving, which is good for environment, as stagnant water does not stay fresh and inviting very long. There are many factors, both natural and human-induced, that cause rivers to continuously change:
Natural mechanisms
- Runoff from rainfall and snowmelt
- Evaporation from soil and surface-water bodies
- Transpiration by vegetation
- Ground-water discharge from aquifers
- Ground-water recharge from surface-water bodies
- Sedimentation of lakes and wetlands
- Formation or dissipation of glaciers, snowfields, and permafrost
Human-induced mechanisms
- Surface-water withdrawals and transbasin diversions
- River-flow regulation for hydropower and navigation
- Construction, removal, and sedimentation of reservoirs and stormwater retention ponds
- Stream channelization and levee construction
- Drainage or restoration of wetlands
- Land use changes such as urbanization that alter rates of erosion, infiltration, overland flow, or evapotranspiration
- Wastewater outfalls
- Irrigation
Climate Change
- Increase/decrease in precipitation
- Air temperature change
Increases/decreases in precipitation contribute significantly to changes in streamflow.