Critical transition
Critical transitions are abrupt shifts in the state of ecosystems, the climate, financial systems or other complex dynamical systems that may occur when changing conditions pass a critical or bifurcation point. As such, they are a particular type of regime shift. Recovery from such shifts may require more than a simple return to the conditions at which a transition occurred, a phenomenon called hysteresis.[1][2][3][4]
Early-warning signals and critical slowing down
Significant efforts have been made to identify early-warning signals of critical transitions.[6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13] Systems approaching a bifurcation point show a characteristic behaviour called critical slowing down that leaves a distinguishable signal in the increase of spatial and temporal autocorrelation; variance and skewness increase while variance spectra tend to lower frequencies[7][10][11], and the 'direction of critical slowing down' in a system's state space may be indicative of a system's future state when delayed negative feedbacks leading to oscillatory or other complex dynamics are weak.[5] Researchers have explored early warning signals in lakes, climate dynamics, food webs, dry land transitions and epilepsy attacks.[7]
References
- ^ Scheffer, Marten; Carpenter, Steve; Foley, Jonathan A.; Folke, Carl; Walker, Brian (October 2001). "Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems". Nature. 413 (6856): 591–596. Bibcode:2001Natur.413..591S. doi:10.1038/35098000. ISSN 1476-4687. PMID 11595939.
- ^ Scheffer, Marten (26 July 2009). Critical transitions in nature and society. Princeton University Press. ISBN 978-0691122045.
- ^ Scheffer, Marten; Bascompte, Jordi; Brock, William A.; Brovkin, Victor; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Dakos, Vasilis; Held, Hermann; van Nes, Egbert H.; Rietkerk, Max; Sugihara, George (September 2009). "Early-warning signals for critical transitions". Nature. 461 (7260): 53–59. Bibcode:2009Natur.461...53S. doi:10.1038/nature08227. ISSN 1476-4687. PMID 19727193.
- ^ Scheffer, Marten; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Lenton, Timothy M.; Bascompte, Jordi; Brock, William; Dakos, Vasilis; Koppel, Johan van de; Leemput, Ingrid A. van de; Levin, Simon A.; Nes, Egbert H. van; Pascual, Mercedes; Vandermeer, John (19 October 2012). "Anticipating Critical Transitions". Science. 338 (6105): 344–348. Bibcode:2012Sci...338..344S. doi:10.1126/science.1225244. ISSN 0036-8075. PMID 23087241.
- ^ a b Lever, J. Jelle; Leemput, Ingrid A.; Weinans, Els; Quax, Rick; Dakos, Vasilis; Nes, Egbert H.; Bascompte, Jordi; Scheffer, Marten (2020). "Foreseeing the future of mutualistic communities beyond collapse". Ecology Letters. 23 (1): 2–15. doi:10.1111/ele.13401. PMC 6916369. PMID 31707763.
- ^ Biggs, R., et al. (2009) Turning back from the brink: Detecting an impending regime shift in time to avert it. P Natl Acad Sci Usa 106, 826–831
- ^ a b c Scheffer, M., et al. (2009) Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature 461, 53–59
- ^ Contamin, R., and Ellison, A.M. (2009) Indicators of regime shifts in ecological systems: What do we need to know and when do we need to know it? Ecol. Appl. 19, 799–816
- ^ Dakos, V., et al. (2010) Spatial correlation as leading indicator of catastrophic shifts. Theor Ecol 3, 163–174
- ^ a b Dakos, V., et al. (2008) Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change. P Natl Acad Sci Usa 105, 14308–14312
- ^ a b van Nes, E.H., and Scheffer, M. (2007) Slow recovery from perturbations as a generic indicator of a nearby catastrophic shift. Am. Nat. 169, 738–747
- ^ van Nes, E., and Scheffer, M. (2005) Implications of spatial heterogeneity for catastrophic regime shifts in ecosystems. Ecology 86, 1797–1807
- ^ Hastings, A., and Wysham, D.B. (2010) Regime shifts in ecological systems can occur with no warning. Ecol Lett, 1–9