Value tree analysis

Creating a value tree
Methodology of Value Tree Analysis
Steps to create a value tree analysis
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Value tree analysis is a Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) implement by which the decision-making attributes for each choice to come out with a preference for the decision makes are weighted.^[1] Usually, choices' attribute-specific values are aggregated into a complete method.^[2]

History

The concept of utility was used by Daniel Bernoulli (1738) first in 1730s while explaining the evaluation of St Petersburg paradox, a specific uncertain gable. He explained that money was not enough to measure how much value is. For an individual, however, the worth of money was a non-linear function. This discovery lead to the emerge of utility theory which is a numerical measure that indicates how much value alternative choices have. With the development of decision analysis, utility played an important role in the explanation of economics behavior. Some utilitarian philosophers like Bentham and Mill took advantage of it as a implement to build a certain kind of ethics theory either. Nevertheless, there was no possibility of measuring one's utility function. Moreover, the theory was not so important as in practice. With the time past, the utility theory gradually based on a solid theoretical foundation. People started to use theory of games to explain the behavior of those who are rational and calm when engaging with others with conflict happening. In 1944 John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern's Theory of Games and Economic Behavior was published. At that time decision analysis was sparked by the new theory. Afterwards, it emerged since it has become of the key implement researchers and practitioners from statistics and operations research use to give a helping hand to decision makers when it was hard to make a decision. Decision analysts can be separated into two sorts of utility. The attitude of decision makers towards uncertain risk are solved by risk preference. This is concerned with choices under certainty, that is value theory, and a decision analysis tool particularly named value tree.^[3]

Methodology

Value tree was built to be an effective and essential technique for improving and enhancing goals and values by several aspects. The tree analysis displays a visual mode to problems that used to be only available in a verbal mode. Plus separate aspects, thoughts and opinions are united to a single visual representation, which gives birth to great clarity, stimulation of creative thinking, and constructive communication.

We take the steps below to create a value tree analysis:^[4]

- Initial pool

Using a free brainstorming of all the values as a beginning, by which we mean all the problems which are related to the decision: the goals and criteria, the demands, etc—all the things which have relevance to decision making. Write down what each value is on a piece of paper.

- Clustering

Once there is a lack of ideas, clustering the ideas is an effective way—move the pieces of paper around until similar ideas are grouped together.

- Labeling

Labeling each group with the higher-level value that holds it together, to make each element clearer.

- Moving up the tree

Seeing whether these groups can be grouped into still larger groups

- Moving down the tree

Also seeing if these groups can be divided into still smaller sub-groups.

- Moving across the tree

Asking themselves is a another valid way to bring new ideas to a tree, whether any additional thoughts at that level can come out(moving across the tree).

Tool

PRIME Decisions

PRIME Decisions is a decision helping implement which use PRIME method to analyze incomplete preference information. Novel features are also offered by PRIME Decisions, which gives support to interactive decision process which includes an elicitation tour. PRIME Decisions are seen as an essential catalyst for further applied work due to its practitioners benefit from M. Köksalan et al. (eds.), Multiple Criteria Decision Making in the New Millennium © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2001 166 the explicit recognition of incomplete information.^[5]

Web-Hipre

Web-HIPRE, a Java applet, provides help to multiple criteria decision analysis. Moreover, a normal platform is provided for individual and group decision making. People can process the model at the same time at anytime. Plus, they can easily have access to the model.It is possible to define links to other websites. All other sorts of information like geography, media files describing the criteria or alternatives can be referred to this link, which help make a better quality of decision support significantly.^[6]

Application

Some indicators obtained by process analysis are of great help to the value tree analysis. Especially in the value decomposition of internal operation indicators, the driving indicators of a first-level process indicator are usually the secondary sub-process indicators. For example, the new product launch cycle (in terms of R&D project to production) is actually driven by two processes: R&D and testing in the company. The standardized R&D and testing process is a key success factor for improving the speed of innovation. To this end, the two process indicators development cycle, test cycle, sample acceptance and other indicators are the vital elements which drive the new product launch cycle indicators. Therefore, combining process analysis is of great significance for the decomposition of indicator value, especially for the decomposition of internal operational indicators.^[7]

Application on empirical pilot study variable selection

As value tree analysis is an approach that costs and computes little, it is one the best choices for time-sensitive variable selection in empirical pilot healthcare studies. Moreover, value tree analysis offers a well-structured and strategic process for decision-making so that pilot study and patient data constraints can be accounted for and value for study stakeholders can be maximized.^[1]

Application on Coaching

Value tree analysis help creative and critical thinking and organize the thoughts in a logical way. Moreover, when a decision has come up, value tree analysis can also be a effective way to think about one's core goals and values. Afterwards, we can actively look for decision opportunities with the analysis done before.^[8]^[9]^[10]

Reference

^ ^a ^b E. Kremer, Gül (2011). "Empirical Pilot Study Variable Selection Using Value Tree Analysis". IIE Annual Conference: 1–7 – via IIE Annual Conference.
^ Keeney, Ralph L.; Raiffa, Howard, "PREFERENCES OVER TIME", Decisions with Multiple Objectives, Cambridge University Press, pp. 473–514, ISBN 9781139174084, retrieved 2019-05-16
^ P. Hämäläinen, Raimo (2002). "Value Tree Analysis". Dicision Making. Retrieved 15 May 2019. {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
^ F. Anderson, Barry (2002). The Three Secrets of Wise Decision Making. Single Reef Press.
^ Gustafsson, Janne; Salo, Ahti; Gustafsson, Tommi (2001), "PRIME Decisions: An Interactive Tool for Value Tree Analysis", Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, pp. 165–176, ISBN 9783540423775, retrieved 2019-05-21
^ Mustajoki, Jyri; Hämäläinen, Raimo P. (Aug 2000). "Web-Hipre: Global Decision Support By Value Tree And AHP Analysis". INFOR: Information Systems and Operational Research. 38 (3): 208–220. doi:10.1080/03155986.2000.11732409. ISSN 0315-5986.
^ Shi jie 500 qiang 12 zhong jing dian guan li gong ju. Yang shi kun., 阳士昆. Bei jing: Zhong guo shi dai jing ji chu ban she. 2005. ISBN 7801697693. OCLC 302416795.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: others (link)
^ Teuscher, Ursina (January 2013). "Coaching Tool: Creating a Value Tree". Research Gate.
^ Keeney, Ralph L. (Aug 1996). "Value-focused thinking: Identifying decision opportunities and creating alternatives". European Journal of Operational Research. 92 (3): 537–549. doi:10.1016/0377-2217(96)00004-5. ISSN 0377-2217.
^ Keeney, Ralph L. (Aug 1997). "Value-focused Thinking: a Path to Creative Decisionmaking". Long Range Planning. 30 (2): 314. doi:10.1016/s0024-6301(97)80025-8. ISSN 0024-6301.