Indicator analysis
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Indicator analysis is a type of structured analytic technique used in intelligence analysis. While indicators (or "signposts") themselves are observable and measurable conditions or events, indicator analysis uses historical data to expose trends in those indicators, allowing the analyst to detect early signs of significant change. [1]
Development/history
Context Structured analytic techniques Indicator analysis is a structured analytic technique. Structured analytic techniques are used by intelligence analysts to remove bias and create a clear argument to reinforce their conclusions. Elements
Process[2]
- - Identify a set of relevant factors to the topic at large
- - Identify near-term scenarios that could result from worsening or improvement in each factor
- - Identify a series of events that could indicate improvement or deterioration within each factor
- - Review historical and ongoing events for indicators within each factor
- - Identify trends to forecast which near-term scenario is most likely to occur
Benefits
- Can help keep analysts objective by using an pre-set list of criteria[2]
- Can help organize complex problems by breaking up relevant factors into more manageable subject areas
Weaknesses
Related Structured Analytic Techniques
References
- ^ Heuer, Jr., Richards J.; Pherson, Randolph H. (2015). Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis. Sage Publications, Inc. ISBN 978-1-4522-4151-7.
- ^ a b https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/Tradecraft%20Primer-apr09.pdf p. 12