Forecasting

Forecasting is the process of making predictions of events that will happen in the future.

Categories of forecasting methods

Time series methods

• Moving average
• Exponential smoothing
• Extrapolation
• Linear prediction
• Trend estimation
• Growth curve

Causal / econometric methods

• Regression analysis using Linear regression or Non-linear regression
• Autoregressive moving average (ARMA)
• Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)

e.g. Box-Jenkins

• Econometrics

Judgemental methods

• Composite forecasts
• Surveys
• Jury of experts
• Delphi method
• Scenario building
• Technology forecasting
• Forecast by analogy
• Simulation

Other methods

• Prediction market
• Probabilistic forecasting and Ensemble forecasting

Forecasting accuracy

• Forecast error
• Predictability
• Prediction interval, similar to confidence interval

Application of forecasting

• Weather forecasting and Metereology
• Transport planning and Transportation forecasting
• Economic forecasting
• Technology forecasting
• Earthquake prediction
• Land use forecasting
• Product forecasting

See also

• Prediction
• Predictive analytics

References

• Kress, George J. (30 May 1994). Forecasting and market analysis techniques: a practical approach (in English). Westport, Connecticut, London: Quorum Books. ISBN 089930835X. {{cite book}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)CS1 maint: unrecognized language (link)

• Geisser, Seymour (1 June 1993). Predictive Inference: An Introduction. Chapman & Hall, CRC Press. ISBN 0412034719. {{cite book}}: Check |authorlink= value (help); Check date values in: |date= (help)

External sites

• Wharton University on Forecasting
• Long range forecasting