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2016 Republican Party presidential debates and forums

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The 2016 Republican presidential debates will occur among candidates for the Republican Party's presidential nomination for the national election of 2016.

RNC debates

The Republican National Committee announced the 2015–2016 debate schedule on January 16, 2015. It revealed that only 12 debates would be held, in a stark contrast to the 27 debates and forums that were held from 2011 to 2012. The announcement included which news organizations would host each debate, with Fox News and CNN having three each; and one each for ABC, CBS, NBC, CNBC, Fox Business Network, and a conservative media outlet to be announced.

The first debate occurred on Thursday, August 6, 2015 at a sports arena in Cleveland, Ohio. It was seen on the Fox News Channel by 24 million viewers, making the debate the most watched live broadcast in cable news history.[1] Due to the number of candidates running for nomination, Fox News aired two separate debates on August 6, with the less popular candidates going first, followed by the candidates with more support in the 'prime time'debate.

One debate will follow per month until February 2016, when the GOP candidates will debate three times. Additionally, two debates have been confirmed for March, 2016.[2]

Logistics

Map of United States showing Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Orlando
   C-SPAN Goffstown
   C-SPAN
Goffstown
Fox News Cleveland
Fox News
Cleveland
CNN Reagan Library
CNN
Reagan Library
CNBC Boulder
CNBC
Boulder
CNN Reno
CNN
Reno
Sites of the 2016 Republican primary debates.

With more than 15 major candidates vying for the nomination, the prospect of including all the candidates in a debate presented logistical difficulties. For the August 6, 2015 Fox News debate, only the top 10 candidates based on the most recent five national polls were invited to the 9 p.m. debate. Other candidates had the chance to participate in another debate that was held at 5 p.m.[3] For the September 16, 2015 CNN debate, there will be one debate with only candidates who are in the top ten in recent polling, and another for those not in the top ten but polling at least one percent in "public polling".[4] (However, CNN has reserved the right to, at their discretion, limit primetime participation to the top eight candidates,[5][6] in a situation where fewer than 15 candidates qualify according to CNN's specific criteria.) In mid-July Fox News required that candidates offer a full personal financial disclosure prior to the first debate, which is in line with Federal Election Commission guidelines (but sets an earlier deadline for the disclosure).[7]

The use of polls to winnow the field was criticized, especially but not exclusively by candidates with relatively low polling numbers in August – including Rick Santorum and Lindsey Graham – who complained that exclusion from the debates could prevent them from being competitive in the primaries and caucuses.[8] Candidates ranked from 8th to 12th place in the polls prior to the August debate—including Chris Christie, Rick Perry, and John Kasich downplayed the importance of being invited to any specific debate, emphasizing that delegate-selection in early states is more important.[9] Some in the media questioned Donald Trump's seriousness as a candidate and pondered as to whether or not he should be included in the debates.[10][11][12] Trump filed FEC paperwork to make his run official;[13] however, despite doing well in the early polling which effectively guaranteed him an invitation to the Fox News and CNN debates, Trump expressed ambivalence about the value of the debates to his own campaign (saying he was not a debater and therefore did not know how well he would perform in one), and to the process in general (saying that politicians are always debating with little in the way of results).[9] Candidates such as Chris Christie and Rand Paul said that the debates would give candidates a chance to communicate policy-ideas to voters, and would thus be helpful in giving voters the information needed to decide which candidate to support.[9] Outside the presidential campaigns themselves, the use of polling data was criticized by polling firms such as Marist, who temporarily suspended their national polling of preferences for the Republican nominee, on grounds that the use of polling-data to select the debate field puts polling firms under pressure to produce high-precision results that are inherently impossible to provide, due to the margin of error in any statistical sampling process like a preference poll (see statistical tie for tenth place and more generally the independence of clones).[14] FiveThirtyEight pointed out the varying degrees of discretion that the television networks gave themselves with their distinct debate-invitation-criteria, noting that the polling-data can only be seen as an objective method for selection of the debate participants, if the full and exact criteria are made clear in advance.[6] The rhetoric about the pros and cons of the debate criteria, and the use of polls to winnow the field, partially displaced more substantive discussions of concrete policies that candidates are proposing.[9]

Voter First Forum and RNC debates

The following table lists a pre-debate forum and a total of 12 RNC debates along with the dates, times, places, hosts, and participants.[15][16][17]

Debates among candidates for the 2016 Republican Party U.S. presidential nomination
No. Date Time Place Host Participants
 P  Participant, main debate.  S  Participant, secondary debate.
 I  Invitee (to a future debate).  N  Non-invitee.
 A  Absent invitee.  O  Out of race (exploring or withdrawn).
Jeb
Bush
Ben
Carson
Chris
Christie
Ted
Cruz
Carly
Fiorina
Jim
Gilmore
Lindsey
Graham
Mike
Huckabee
Bobby
Jindal
John
Kasich
George
Pataki
Rand
Paul
Rick
Perry
Marco
Rubio
Rick
Santorum
Donald
Trump
Scott
Walker
Template:Beige Aug. 3, 2015 5 p.m. EDT Saint Anselm College
Goffstown, New Hampshire
C-SPAN P P P P P O P A P P P P P P P A P
Template:Beige Aug. 6, 2015  5 p.m. EDT 
 9 p.m. EDT 
Quicken Loans Arena
Cleveland, Ohio
Fox News P P P P S S S P S P S P S P S P P
2 Sept. 16, 2015 Reagan Library
Simi Valley, California
CNN/
Salem Radio
I I I I I N I I I I I I I I I I I
3 Oct. 28, 2015 Coors Events Center
Boulder, Colorado
CNBC
4 Nov. 2015 Madison, Wisconsin Fox Business
5 Dec. 15, 2015 Reno-Sparks Convention Center
Reno, Nevada
CNN/
Salem Radio
6 Jan. 2016 Des Moines, Iowa Fox News
7 Feb. 6, 2016 New Hampshire ABC News
8 Feb. 13, 2016 South Carolina CBS News
9 Feb. 26, 2016 Houston, Texas NBC News/
Telemundo
10 Mar. 2016 TBD Fox News
11 Mar. 2016 Florida CNN/
Salem Radio
12 TBD TBD TBD
^ Not sanctioned by the RNC; an RNC rule makes a candidate who participates in a 'nonsanctioned debate' ineligible to participate in a sanctioned one, but the format of the forum in which candidates speak one at a time with no direct challenges did not effect the eligibility of the candidate.[18][19]
^ Candidate's polling performance is below 1%. A change in polling before the deadline to segregate candidates between debate tiers may qualify them for inclusion.
       = event completed

Summaries

August 3, 2015 – Goffstown, New Hampshire

The 2016 Voters First Presidential Forum moderator was Jack Heath of WGIR radio, who asked questions of each of the participating candidates based on a random draw.[20] Candidates each had three opportunities to speak: two rounds of questions, and a closing statement.[21] Topics of discussion during the forum were partially selected based on the results of an online voter survey.[22] The facilities were provided by the New Hampshire Institute of Politics and Political Library of St. Anselm College. The forum was organized in response[23] to the top-ten invitation limitations placed by Fox News and CNN on their first televised debates (see descriptions below).

Eleven of the candidates were present in person; Senators Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marco Rubio participated in the forum via satellite to avoid missing a vote.[19][24] Three major Republican candidates who did not participate were Donald Trump (who chose not to attend),[20] Jim Gilmore (who missed the cutoff deadline)[20] and Mike Huckabee (who was invited, but did not respond).[20] Mark Everson did not receive an invitation, albeit after a "serious look."[25][26]

The Voters First forum was broadcast nationally[27] by C-SPAN[28] as the originating source media entity, beginning at 6:30 p.m. EDT and lasting[citation needed] from 7 to 9 p.m. The event was also simulcast and/or co-sponsored by television stations KCRG-TV in Iowa, New England Cable News in the northeast, WBIN-TV in New Hampshire,[29] WLTX-TV in South Carolina, radio stations New Hampshire Public Radio, WGIR in New Hampshire, iHeartRadio on the internet (C-SPAN is also offering an online version of the broadcast), and newspapers the Cedar Rapids Gazette in Iowa, the Union Leader in New Hampshire, and the Post and Courier in Charleston South Carolina.[20] Local financial associate-sponsors included No Labels, Americans for Prosperity, Eversource Energy, Eastern Bank, and politician-ratings-group the Live Free or Die Alliance.[30] There was a live audience, with tickets to the event awarded via a lottery.[23]

August 6, 2015 – Cleveland, Ohio

Candidate Airtime[31] Polls[32]
Trump 10:32 23.4%
Bush 8:31 12.0%
Walker 5:51 10.2%
Huckabee 6:40 6.6%
Carson 6:23 5.8%
Cruz 6:39 5.4%
Rubio 6:22 5.4%
Paul 5:10 4.8%
Christie 6:10 3.4%
Kasich 6:31 3.2%

The first debate was hosted by Fox News, Facebook, and the Ohio Republican Party at the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio – the same location as the future 2016 Republican National Convention. The two-hour debate invited the 10 highest-polling candidates, as measured by the average of the top five national polls selected by Fox. In addition, all other candidates who were "consistently being offered" as choices in national polls were invited to a one-hour debate earlier that same day.[3] (Originally, the non-primetime debate had a minimum requirement that invitees were averaging at least 1% in Fox-recognized national polls,[33] and was to be aired at noon for a total of two hours in duration.) The two-tiered debate hosted by Fox News on the 6th was qualitatively different from the C-SPAN forum held on the 3rd, for at least three reasons: it was a debate rather than a forum, where candidates were allowed to challenge each other, not just speak one at a time sequentially; it was divided into two tiers based on national polling numbers, only a subset of the candidates were on-stage (during each of the two distinct Fox News airtimes); and finally, Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee were participants in the primetime tier, but did not appear at the C-SPAN forum.[21][34]

The candidates in the main debate were Donald Trump, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Mike Huckabee, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, and John Kasich; the moderators were Bret Baier, Megyn Kelly, and Chris Wallace. Seven candidates who did not qualify were invited to participate in the 5 p.m. forum; these were Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, Rick Santorum, Lindsey Graham, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, and George Pataki; the moderators for this debate were Bill Hemmer and Martha McCallum.[35] Because of a rule-change announced[3] by FOX one week before the debate-invitations went out, Graham, Pataki, and Gilmore were allowed to participate at 5 p.m. despite averaging below 1% in the five selected polls.[32] (Former IRS Commissioner Mark Everson was excluded from the 5 p.m. tier,[32] along with other relatively-unknown candidates who did not meet the updated invitation-criteria of "consistently being offered to respondents in major national polls as recognized by Fox News.")[3] The five selected polls[32] were conducted by Fox News,[36] Bloomberg,[37] CBS News,[38] Monmouth University,[39] and Quinnipiac University.[40][41]

In the main event, Trump was afforded the most time to speak at the debate by the Fox moderators (at 10 minutes, 32 seconds) followed by Bush (8:31), Huckabee (6:40), Cruz (6:39), Kasich (6:31), Carson (6:23), Rubio (6:22), Christie (6:10), Walker (5:51), and Paul (5:10).[31] The debate itself was viewed by 24 million people at its peak, setting records for the most-watched presidential primary debate ever and the highest-rated non-sports telecast in cable television history.[42][43]

The two different debates received rather different analyses in terms of the performances of the candidates. In the lower tier debate with only 7 candidates, Carly Fiorina was overwhelmingly considered the best debater, while Perry and Jindal were also praised, and Gilmore, Graham, Pataki, and Santorum were criticized.[44] In the primetime debate, Donald Trump’s overall performance was greatly criticized as rude and erratic by many pundits (although he led by wide margins in post-debate polls asking viewers who won the debate), while Cruz, Rubio, Christie, and Huckabee received praise. Notable conflicts between candidates included Rand Paul vs. Christie over the NSA surveillance program, Paul vs. Trump on the latter's possible third-party run, and Christie vs. Huckabee on the issue of welfare reform. Trump also clashed with two of the moderators – Kelly and Wallace – on the issue of sexism with Kelly, and the issue of illegal immigration with Wallace (specifically, Trump's claims that the Mexican government was deliberately sending criminals into America illegally).[45][46][47]

September 16, 2015 – Simi Valley, California

The second debate will take place at (and be co-sponsored by) the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, which previously hosted two of the Republican debates in 2008 – the first and penultimate ones. This 2016 debate will air on CNN, and will be simulcast on the Salem Radio Network. Similar to the Fox News-sponsored debate in Cleveland, but with slightly different ranking-criteria, the debate will be split into primetime and pre-primetime groups based on averaged polling numbers.[48] The primetime group will consist of no more than 10 candidates.[49] On August 11, former First Lady Nancy Reagan invited qualifying candidates, whose polling is above 1% in at least three recognized polls, to her husband's library for the September debate. As of August 2015, 16 of the candidates that participated in the August 6 debate on Fox have also been invited to participate in this September 16 debate on CNN; former Governor Jim Gilmore has not yet qualified for an invitation.[50] The primetime debate will consist of the candidates ranking in the top ten, as measured by nationwide polling performed by specific firms in specific ways, averaged across polls that are released between July 16 and September 10.[51] Specific airtimes for the primetime and the undercard broadcasts have not yet been announced, but unlike the multi-hour gap between the two-tiered August 6 debates (and also distinct from the single-tiered forum with fourteen candidates on August 3), the two-tiered CNN broadcasts will be consecutive, with the primetime top-ten debate planned to immediately follow the second-tier-six undercard broadcast.[52]

The moderator is Jake Tapper of CNN, with side-by-side[52] participation (including questions) by Hugh Hewitt of Salem Radio.[53][54][55] Unlike the August 6th debate (but similar to the August 3rd forum), the same moderator-team will address questions to all candidates.[52] In May 2015, Tapper was listed as a speaker at a Clinton Foundation event; CNN said this was a misunderstanding, and that Tapper was not a speaker, although Tapper was going to be at the Clinton Foundation event for a televised interview with Bill Clinton, and would also moderate a panel about business.[56] An editorial in USA Today[57] said Tapper had a history of being liberal despite his reputation for fairness, but pieces in Breitbart and Hot Air said that Tapper was an honest broker who asks tough questions of all politicians.[56] Before joining CNN, Tapper worked at ABC as whitehouse correspondent for a decade; Tapper wrote a book on the 2000 Florida election recount ("omnidirectional denunciation"[58]) after covering the general election[59][60] and the 2000 Republican primaries[61] for Salon.com, plus in the 1990s was briefly a staffer for Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky (D-PA). As of 2015, Tapper's current reputation among Republicans for fairness is considered very good (for a broadcaster not employed by Fox).[62][63]

Hewitt is a conservative talk radio host, and a professor of Constitutional law.[64] His talk radio show has over one million weekly listeners,[65] five or ten times fewer than more well-known names in conservative talk radio (e.g. Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, Sean Hannity, Mark Levin, and Laura Ingraham whom the RNC also considered),[66] but Hewitt has interviewed almost all the 2016 presidential candidates; his show has been called "thoughtful"[64] and "wonk talk radio."[65] Hewitt prefers questions about multi-year DoD budget line-items like the Ohio-class submarine, the roots of the Islamic State, and books such as The Looming Tower about the roots of Al-Qaeda as well as Our Kids about education.[65] Before his work at Salem Radio, Hewitt was a PBS broadcaster in the 1990s; his first political work was as a staffer under Nixon (he later helped oversee the Nixon Library), after graduating from law school, Hewitt spent six years during the 1980s in the Reagan administration.[65] Hewitt works for the same parent-corporation that owns RedState (which invited some[67] but not all candidates to their conference in early August),[68] and Hewitt has been specifically critical of Trump's campaign.[69] Hewitt was also critical of the lines of questioning pursued by Fox moderators (towards Trump specifically as well as the other candidates),[69][70] and said that he wants the questions at the September 16th debate to cover a different set of issues that will be of more specific interest to Republican primary voters.[52][69] Hewitt's overall reputation is that he is a conservative, although he sometimes disagrees with his talk radio peers;[71] unlike Tapper, his name is not currently well known to liberals nor independents.[65]

October 28, 2015 – Boulder, Colorado

The third debate will be held on October 28 at the University of Colorado in Boulder, which is also one of the sponsors. CNBC has stated that the debate will focus on the economy.[72]

November 2015 – Madison, Wisconsin

The fourth debate will be held somewhere in Wisconsin, airing on the Fox Business Network and sponsored by The Wall Street Journal.

December 15, 2015 – Reno, Nevada

The fifth debate, and the final debate of 2015, will be held on December 15, 2015, somewhere in Nevada. It will be the second debate to air on CNN, and will also be broadcast by Salem Radio.

January 2016 – Des Moines, Iowa

The sixth debate, and the first debate of 2016, will be held in Iowa, which holds the first caucuses, and will be the second debate to air on Fox News.

February 6, 2016 – New Hampshire

The seventh debate will be held in the first state to hold primaries, New Hampshire, and will air on ABC News and be sponsored by Independent Journal Review.

February 13, 2016 – South Carolina

The eighth debate, and second consecutive debate in the month of February, will be held in another early primary state of South Carolina, airing on CBS News.

February 26, 2016 – Houston, Texas

The ninth debate, and third and final debate of February, will be held in Houston, Texas, and will air on NBC News in conjunction with Telemundo and National Review.

March 2016 – TBA

The first of two known debates to be held in March 2016, and the tenth debate overall, will be the third and final debate to air on Fox News.

March 10, 2016 – TBA

The second of two known debates in March, the eleventh overall, will be the third and final debate to air on CNN, and the second debate to be broadcast by both CNN and Salem Radio.

See also

References

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  17. ^ James Hohmann; Alex Isenstadt (January 16, 2015). "2016 Presidential Debate Schedule: Republican Party rolls out dates". Politico.
  18. ^ "Fox Plans Second-Tier Debate in Response to Threat from N.H. Newspaper". National Journal.
  19. ^ a b Associated Press (August 3, 2015). "Republican presidential hopefuls face off in pre-debate forum in N.H." NJ.com. Retrieved August 3, 2015.
  20. ^ a b c d e Paul Feely (August 1, 2015). "Voters First Forum levels the playing field". New Hampshire Union-Leader. Retrieved August 3, 2015.
  21. ^ a b Brian Stelter (August 3, 2015). "Republican forum begins Monday without Donald Trump". CNNMoney.
  22. ^ "Voters First Forum Topics". On Monday, August 3, candidates ... will be broadcast live on C-SPAN at 7 p.m. Topics for the forum will be determined by you, the voters. Please choose the top five topics you would like to see discussed. ...from these [five] identical drop-down lists: Iran nuclear deal, Homeland Security (Terrorism), Defense, International Trade, Immigration, Russia, Climate change, Crime, Drugs/heroin, Death penalty, Euthanasia, U.S. debt/deficit, Taxes, Economy and jobs, Campaign spending Reform, Social Security, Medicare, Healthcare/Obamacare, Gay marriage, Religious freedom, Privacy/surveillance, Education/Common Core, Abortion, 1st Amendment, 2nd Amendment, Race.
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  24. ^ http://news.yahoo.com/senate-roll-vote-planned-parenthood-231725304.html
  25. ^ Jon Ward, Senior Political Correspondent (July 29, 2015). "New Hampshire thumbs its nose at Fox News over presidential debates". The Union Leader considered allowing Mark Everson, the commissioner of the Internal Revenue Service from 2003 to 2007, to take part. Everson announced his candidacy in March. "We had discussions with Mark Everson about whether or not he would qualify. We didn't want to do what Fox did, which was cut the field arbitrarily," Spiner said. "We took a serious look to see if we were missing something here, and we decided we weren't." {{cite web}}: |author= has generic name (help)
  26. ^ http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/aug/05/mark-everson-republican-presidential-candidate-polling-debates
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  50. ^ A change in Gilmore's polling performance before September 10 could qualify him for an invitation; the same logic theoretically applies to other candidates who have filed with the FEC to seek the Republican nomination in 2016, should polling-firms begin to include such candidate-names in their nationwide polls.
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  66. ^ "RNC considering Limbaugh, Hannity, Levin as moderators?". HotAir.com.
  67. ^ Invited candidates were Bush, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Huckabee, Jindal, Perry, Rubio, Trump, and Walker; however, Trump was disinvited shortly before the event, because of remarks he made about Fox debate moderator Megyn Kelly. Candidates not invited include Carson, Everson, Gilmore, Graham, Kasich, Pataki, Paul, and Santorum, in addition to Trump – of those, Carson, Paul, and Trump (plus possibly Kasich depending on the methodology) are currently ranked among the top ten candidates in national polling data.
  68. ^ Thomas G. Lake (August 8, 2015). "At conservative gathering, Cruz steals thunder from banished Trump". CNN.
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  70. ^ Adam Wollner and National Journal staff (August 6, 2015). "Live Blog, Welcome to the Happy Hour Debate; Next Month's Debate Moderator Is Unimpressed". ...Hewitt appears to already have a few ideas for how next month's debate can be improved.... expressed dismay with the way Fox's moderators are framing some of the questions. After the first round of questioning focused on the candidates' low standing in the polls, Hewitt commented on Twitter: "Not loving the question set thus far. Hostile and not crucial to GOP primary voters." And during the immigration portion of the debate, Hewitt tweeted: "Immigration Q to @RickSantorum isn't a GOP primary voter Q: 'What would you say to a child'. How about 'What should GOP primary voter know?' Hewitt's remarks reflect a concern many conservatives had after the 2012 election cycle: Debate moderators, particularly those from mainstream news outlets, weren't asking questions relevant to the average Republican voter. Unlike most commentators, however, Hewitt will actually have the ability to do something about it.
  71. ^ "Glenn Beck, Savage, Levin Join Rush in Opposing Attack". Newsmax.
  72. ^ "CNBC to Host Republican Presidential Debate at the University of Colorado Boulder on Wednesday, October 28". CNBC. July 16, 2015. Retrieved July 21, 2015.