User:Jalapenos do exist/sandbox/ratio
The civilian casualty ratio or civilian death ratio is a metric applied to armed conflicts which measures the number of civilian casualties in proportion to the total number of people killed, either by a particular belligerent or in the conflict as a whole.
A low ratio of civilian deaths is generally perceived as desirable. Some commentators regard a low ratio as indicative of a belligerent's morality and adherence to the laws of armed conflict. Others argue that a force fighting terrorism might create a high ratio of civilian deaths despite efforts to the contrary, because of terrorists' tendency to hide among civilians. Calculation of the ratio may be complicated by uncertainty regarding the total number of people killed, the proper classification of people as civilians or combatants, or both.
According to Professor Alan Dershowitz of Harvard Law School, writing in 2008, the lowest civilian to combatant casualty ratio in history in the setting of combating terrorism was 1:30, meaning one civilian was killed for every thirty combatants killed. This record was achieved by Israel in its airstrikes on terrorists in the Gaza Strip in 2008.[1]
Overview
According to a 2001 study by the International Committee of the Red Cross, the civilian to soldier death ratio in wars fought since the mid-20th century has been 10:1, as in ten civilian deaths for every soldier death.[2]
Mary Kaldor writes that the civilian to combatant casualty ratio was 8:1 in wars in the 1990s, constituting a reversal of the ratio at the turn of the 20th Century, which stood at 1:8.[3]
Coalition forces in the Iraq War
According to a 2010 assessment by John Sloboda of Iraq Body Count, a United Kingdom based organization, American and coalition forces had killed at least 22,668 combatants as well as 13,807 civilians in the Iraq War, indicating an essential civilian to combatant casualty ratio of 1:2.[4]
NATO in the Balkans
According to military historian and Israeli Ambassador to the United States Michael Oren, four civilians died for every Serbian soldier killed by NATO, a civilian to combatant casualty ratio of 4:1.[5]
US drone strikes in Pakistan
According to a report by Daniel L. Byman of the Brookings Institution, United States drone strikes in Pakistan kill "10 or so civilians" for every militant killed, a civilian to combatant casualty ratio of 10:1. Byman argues that this ratio constitutes a humanitarian tragedy and creates dangerous political problems, including damage to the legitimacy of the Pakistani government and alienation of the Pakistani populace from America.[6]
Israel in the Israel-Gaza conflict
Israel's military activities in the Israel-Gaza conflict have included a campaign of targeted assassinations of terrorists in the Gaza Strip since 2000, as well as several concentrated operations, the most severe of which was Operation Cast Lead during the 2008-2009 Gaza War.
Targeted assassinations
The civilian casualty rate of the targeted assassinations was surveyed by Haaretz military journalist Amos Harel. In 2002 and 2003, the ratio was 1:1, meaning one civilian killed for every terrorist killed. Harel called this period "the dark days" because of the relatively high civilian death toll as compared to later years. He attributed this to an Israeli Air Force (IAF) practice of attacking terrorists even when they were located in densely populated areas. While there were always safety rules, argued Harel, these were "bent" at times in view of the target's importance.[7]
The civilian casualty ratio dropped steeply to 1:28 in late 2005, meaning one civilian killed for every 28 terrorists killed. Harel credited this drop to the new IAF chief Eliezer Shkedi's policies.[7]
The ratio rose again in 2006 to 1:10, a fact that Harel blamed on "several IAF mishaps".[7]
However, in 2007 and 2008 the ratio dropped to an unprecedented level of less than 1:30, or 2-3 percent of the total casualties being civilian.[7] A figure of less than 1:30 was also cited by Jerusalem Post journalist Yaaov Katz.[4]
Professor Alan Dershowitz stated that even this figure may be misleading because some civilians are not innocent bystanders, but that in any case it represents the lowest civilian to combatant casualty ratio in history in the setting of combating terrorism. Dershowitz criticized the international media and human rights organizations for not taking sufficient note of the figure.[1]
In October 2009, Dershowitz stated that the ratio for Israel's campaign of targeted assassinations of terrorists stood at 1 civilian for every 28 terrorists. He argued that "this is the best ratio of any country in the world that is fighting asymmetrical warfare against terrorists who hide behind civilians. It is far better than the ratio achieved by Great Britain and the United States in Iraq or Afghanistan, where both nations employ targeted killings of terrorist leaders." Regarding the practices which might have led to this record, Dershowitz cited Col. Richard Kemp's statements on the Gaza War:[8]
[f]rom my knowledge of the IDF and from the extent to which I have been following the current operation, I don’t think there has ever been a time in the history of warfare when any army has made more efforts to reduce civilian casualties and deaths of innocent people than the IDF is doing today in Gaza... Hamas, the enemy they have been fighting, has been trained extensively by Iran and by Hezbollah, to fight among the people, to use the civilian population in Gaza as a human shield... Hamas factor in the uses of the population as a major part of their defensive plan. So even though as I say, Israel, the IDF, has taken enormous steps...to reduce civilian casualties, it is impossible, it is impossible to stop that happening when the enemy has been using civilians as human shields.
Gaza War
In the Gaza War, the IDF's ratio was 1:3 based on Israel's figures of 1,166 people killed including 709 combatants. According to the figures of B'Tselem, (1390 total people killed, 349 combatants, 248 Hamas policemen and 32 unknowns), the ratio was 3:2. Journalist Yaakov Katz of The Jerusalem Post attributes the low ratio to Israel’s investment in special weapons systems, including small smart bombs that minimize collateral damage, and an upscaled Israeli effort to warn civilians to flee areas and to divert missiles at the last moment if civilians entered a planned strike zone.[4]
See also
References
- ^ a b Dershowitz, Alan (January 3, 2008). "Targeted Killing Is Working, So Why Is The Press Not Reporting It?". The Huffington Post.
- ^ A Grim Portrait of Civilian Deaths in Iraq, New York Times 22-10-2010
- ^ Mary Kaldor, New and old wars, Stanford University Press 1998, p. 9
- ^ a b c Yaakov Katz, Analysis: Lies, leaks, death tolls & statistics, Jerusalem Post 29-10-2010
- ^ UN report a victory for terror, Boston Globe 24-09-2009
- ^ Do Targeted Killings Work?, Brookings 14-07-2009
- ^ a b c d Pinpoint attacks on Gaza more precise, Haaretz (unknown date)
- ^ Alan Dershowitz, The Hypocrisy of "Universal Jurisdiction", Hudson Institute 06-10-2009