Probabilistic argumentation
Probabilistic argumentation is a general theory of reasoning under uncertainty and ignorance. It combines the fields of probability theory and deductive logic, making it a probabilistic logic (Haenni, Kohlas & Lehmann 2000).
Probabilistic argumentation has an inherent problem when used to determine whether Black Swan events occurred because, by definition, those events are so improbable as to seem impossible. As such, probabilistic arguments should be considered fallacious arguments known as appeals to probability.