Technology forecasting

Technology Forecasting

To understand what is Technological Forecasting, we must have an idea of the meaning of the word 'Tecnology'. The Webster's Seventh New Collegiate Dictionary defines technology as " a technical method of achieving a practical purpose, " and " the totality of the means employed to provide objects necessary for human sustenance and comfort. " Technology Forecasting is thus dealing with the forecasting of technology.In other words, " A technological forecast is a prediction of the future characteristics of useful machines, procedures or techniques." The two important aspects in this definition of Technology Forecasting is worthy of receiving some mention. 1. A technological forecast deals with the characteristics of technology, such as levels of technical performance, like speed of a military aircraft, the power in Watts of a particular future engine, the accuracy or precision of a measuring instrument, the number of transistors in a chip in the year 2015 etc.,.The forecast does not have to state how these characteristics will be achieved. 2. Technological Forecasting usually deals with only useful machines, procedures or techniques. This is to exclude from the domain of technological forecasting those commodities, services or techniques intended for luxury or amusement.

Almost all modern manufacturing firms utilize the services of a technological forecaster.Nevertheless, there are a number of alternatives to the rational and explicit forecasting of technology, such as 'No Forecast', 'Anything Can Happen'i.e. relying on pure chance, 'Window Blind Forecasting', 'Genius Forecasting' and boasting of a 'Glorious Past', i.e. adopting the same old techniques.

Thus Technological Forecasting is not mere astrology or palmistry, but a scientific and well defined procedure adopted by a Technological Forecaster or a Technological Forecasting Consultancy for the forecasting of a particular technology.Even though Technological Forecasting is a scientific discipline, Joseph P. Martino is of the view that " the only certainty of a forecast is that it is wrong to some degree. "