Assuming that each team has a 50% chance of winning each match, the probability of each team will win the championship is represented in the table.
Team rank
Probability
1
37.5%
2
37.5%
3
12.5%
4
12.5%
McIntyre final five system
Match
Team 1
Team 2
Week 1
A
Rank 4
v
Rank 5
B
Rank 2
v
Rank 3
Week 2
C
Loser B
v
Winner A
D
Rank 1
v
Winner B
Week 3
E
Loser D
v
Winner C
Week 4
F
Winner D
v
Winner E
Champion
Winner F
Team rank
Probability
1
37.5%
2
25.0%
3
25.5%
4
6.25%
5
6.25%
First McIntyre final six system
Match
Team 1
Team 2
Week 1
A
Rank 5
v
Rank 6
B
Rank 3
v
Rank 4
C
Rank 1
v
Rank 2
Week 2
D
Loser C
v
Winner A
E
Winner C
v
Winner B
Week 3
F
Loser E
v
Winner D
Week 4
G
Winner E
v
Winner F
Champion
Winner G
Second McIntyre final six system
Match
Team 1
Team 2
Week 1
A
Rank 4
v
Rank 5
B
Rank 3
v
Rank 6
C
Rank 1
v
Rank 2
Week 2
D
Loser C
v
2nd highest ranked winner from A, B
E
Winner C
v
1st highest ranked winner from A, B
Week 3
F
Loser E
v
Winner D
Week 4
G
Winner E
v
Winner F
Champion
Winner G
Team rank
Probability
1
25.00%
2
25.00%
3
18.75%
4
12.50%
5
12.50%
6
6.25%
McIntyre final eight system
Match
Team 1
Team 2
Week 1
A
Rank 4
v
Rank 5
B
Rank 3
v
Rank 6
C
Rank 2
v
Rank 7
D
Rank 1
v
Rank 8
Week 2
E
4th highest ranked winner from A, B, C, D
v
2nd highest ranked loser from A, B, C, D
F
3rd highest ranked winner from A, B, C, D
v
1st highest ranked loser from A, B, C, D
Week 3
G
2nd highest ranked winner from A, B, C, D
v
Winner F
H
1st highest ranked winner from A, B, C, D
v
Winner E
Week 4
I
Winner G
v
Winner H
Champion
Winner I
Team rank
Probability
1
18.750%
2
18.750%
3
15.625%
4
12.500%
5
12.500%
6
9.375%
7
6.250%
8
6.250%
Other finals systems
'Super League (Europe)' final six
This is the top six play-offs system used in Super League (Europe). It is basically the McIntyre final four system with an extra week at the beginning to reduce the bottom four teams to two.
Match
Team 1
Team 2
Week 1
A
Rank 5
v
Rank 6
B
Rank 3
v
Rank 4
Week 2
C
Winner B
v
Winner A
D
Rank 1
v
Rank 2
Week 3
E
Loser D
v
Winner C
Week 4
F
Winner D
v
Winner E
Champion
Winner F
Team rank
Probability
1
37.50%
2
37.50%
3
6.25%
4
6.25%
5
6.25%
6
6.25%
'ARL' final seven
Match
Team 1
Team 2
Week 1
A
Rank 2
v
Rank 3
B
Rank 4
v
Rank 5
C
Rank 6
v
Rank 7
Week 2
D
Rank 1
v
Winner A
E
Loser A
v
Loser B
F
Winner B
v
Winner C
Week 3
G
Winner D
v
Winner F
H
Winner E
v
Loser D
Week 4
I
Winner G
v
Winner H
Champion
Winner I
'ARL' final eight
According to Matthew O'Neill (http://www.rleague.com/article.php?id=19486), "Back in 1996 the ARL had the perfect Finals setup, which has since been adopted by the AFL with great success. The ARL used a similar model in 1995 but was better in 1996 due to the swapover pool to avoid teams playing each other twice during the Finals, which could have been the case in 1995 except both Brisbane and Cronulla went out the back door."
1995
This is what actually happened in 1995 rather than the system.
