Assuming that each team has a 50% chance of winning each match, the probability of each team will win the championship is represented in the table.
Team rank
Probability
1
37.5%
2
37.5%
3
12.5%
4
12.5%
McIntyre final five system
Match
Team 1
Team 2
Week 1
A
Rank 4
v
Rank 5
B
Rank 2
v
Rank 3
Week 2
C
Loser B
v
Winner A
D
Rank 1
v
Winner B
Week 3
E
Loser D
v
Winner C
Week 4
F
Winner D
v
Winner E
Champion
Winner F
Team rank
Probability
1
37.5%
2
25.0%
3
25.5%
4
6.25%
5
6.25%
First McIntyre final six system
Match
Team 1
Team 2
Week 1
A
Rank 5
v
Rank 6
B
Rank 3
v
Rank 4
C
Rank 1
v
Rank 2
Week 2
D
Loser C
v
Winner A
E
Winner C
v
Winner B
Week 3
F
Loser E
v
Winner D
Week 4
G
Winner E
v
Winner F
Champion
Winner G
Second McIntyre final six system
Match
Team 1
Team 2
Week 1
A
Rank 4
v
Rank 5
B
Rank 3
v
Rank 6
C
Rank 1
v
Rank 2
Week 2
D
Loser C
v
2nd highest ranked winner from A, B
E
Winner C
v
1st highest ranked winner from A, B
Week 3
F
Loser E
v
Winner D
Week 4
G
Winner E
v
Winner F
Champion
Winner G
Team rank
Probability
1
25.00%
2
25.00%
3
18.75%
4
12.50%
5
12.50%
6
6.25%
McIntyre final eight system
Match
Team 1
Team 2
Week 1
A
Rank 4
v
Rank 5
B
Rank 3
v
Rank 6
C
Rank 2
v
Rank 7
D
Rank 1
v
Rank 8
Week 2
E
4th highest ranked winner from A, B, C, D
v
2nd highest ranked loser from A, B, C, D
F
3rd highest ranked winner from A, B, C, D
v
1st highest ranked loser from A, B, C, D
Week 3
G
2nd highest ranked winner from A, B, C, D
v
Winner F
H
1st highest ranked winner from A, B, C, D
v
Winner E
Week 4
I
Winner G
v
Winner H
Champion
Winner I
Team rank
Probability
1
18.750%
2
18.750%
3
15.625%
4
12.500%
5
12.500%
6
9.375%
7
6.250%
8
6.250%
Other finals systems
'ARL' final seven
'ARL' final eight
'AFL' final eight
This is the finals system the AFL used to replace the McIntyre final eight and without any official name is referred to as the AFL final eight system.
Match
Team 1
Team 2
Week 1
A
Rank 1
v
Rank 4
B
Rank 2
v
Rank 3
C
Rank 5
v
Rank 8
D
Rank 6
v
Rank 7
Week 2
E
Loser A
v
Winner C
F
Loser B
v
Winner D
Week 3
G
Winner A
v
Winner F
H
Winner B
v
Winner E
Week 4
I
Winner G
v
Winner H
Champion
Winner I
Team rank
Probability
1
18.75%
2
18.75%
3
18.75%
4
18.75%
5
6.25%
6
6.25%
7
6.25%
8
6.25%
The 'Super League' final six
This is the top six play-offs system used in Super League (Europe). It is basically the McIntyre final four system with an extra week at the beginning to reduce the bottom four teams to two.