Peak complexity
Peak Complexity is the concept that human societies address problems by adding social and economic complexity but that process is subject to diminishing marginal returns. Adding additional complexity will then impose growing burdens on those societies, making them more vulnerable to external threats. They may eventually collapse to a simpler state.
Origin and Definitions
Who first coined the term is unclear. The first published use of the term may have been by Christopher Burr Jones, in the context of climate change, in 2019, although the term had been used online before that. The ‘peak’ element refers by analogy to [[peak oil]] and [[peak minerals]], although the comparisons are not exact. The concept is credited to [[Joseph Tainter]], who identified diminishing marginal returns on complexity in the context of ancient civilisations, arguing that they eventually collapsed for that reason. Tainter did not use the term peak complexity, however.
Melia defines peak complexity as: “the diminishing marginal returns, and proliferating unintended consequences, of increasing social or technical complexity.”
This definition applies to the process rather than the moment of the peak, which may or may not be reached.
Evidence for Peak Complexity in Modern Societies
Whether they use the specific term or not, several writers have produced evidence to support the view that the growing complexity of modern globalised societies is: becoming less effective at solving problems and/or producing unintended consequences which burden those societies in different ways.
Although Tainter’s original work was mainly concerned with ancient civilisations, he and others have subsequently researched what they term the diminishing marginal returns on innovation. By analysing a database of US patent applications, they showed that over time more authors are needed to produce each new patent, and that the impact of each new patent has, on average, declined over time.
Dekker shows how the growing complexity of economic systems makes them more vulnerable to breakdown. This point was made by him and others as a contributor to the [[2007–2008 financial crisis]].
Reasons for Peak Complexity
Burr Jones, Christopher, 2019, When Things Fall Apart: Global Weirding, Postnormal Times, and Complexity Limits. In Wilson, L. and Stevenson, C. Building Sustainability Through Environmental Education. Chapter 7. https://www.igi-global.com/dictionary/peak-complexity/68785#:~:text=The%20idea%20that%20all%20societies,%2C%20economic%2C%20and%20demographic%20growth.
Dekker, 2011, Drift into Failure: From Hunting Broken Components to Understanding Complex Systems, Taylor & Francis. https://www.routledge.com/Drift-into-Failure-From-Hunting-Broken-Components-to-Understanding-Complex-Systems/Dekker/p/book/9781409422211?gad_source=1&gclid=Cj0KCQjwz7C2BhDkARIsAA_SZKbKDj9B_DiizyfxDaac2K1wm6Jra4Ku7E3LcTiUr9UM8MvH7xUEv1IaAoXVEALw_wcB
Melia, Steve, 2024, Peak Complexity – Why Nothing Works Any More. University of the West of England. https://uwe-repository.worktribe.com/output/12739413/peak-complexity-why-nothing-works-any-more
Rawlence, Jean-Louis, 2018, Medium. The Trust Economy: What to Expect After Peak Complexity https://medium.com/@jlrawlence/the-trust-economy-what-to-expect-after-peak-complexity-aa384ee64564
Strumsky, D. Lobo, J., Tainter, J.A., 2010, Complexity and the productivity of innovation. Syst. Res. Behav. Sci., 27 (5), pp. 496-509. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/sres.1057