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P(doom)

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This is an old revision of this page, as edited by Counterfeit Purses (talk | contribs) at 17:48, 24 June 2024 (→Sample P(doom) values: Since article acknowledges that p(doom) means different things to different people, this chart can only be misleading.). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

P(doom) is a term in AI safety that refers to the probability of catastrophic outcomes (or "doom") as a result of artificial intelligence.[1][2] The exact outcomes in question differ from one prediction to another, but generally allude to the existential risk from artificial general intelligence.[3]

Originating as an inside joke among AI researchers, the term came to prominence in 2023 following the release of GPT-4, as high-profile figures such as Geoffrey Hinton[4] and Yoshua Bengio[5] began to warn of the risks of AI.[6] In 2022, a survey of AI researchers, which had a 17% response rate, found that the majority believed there is at least a 10% chance that our inability to control AI could cause an existential catastrophe.[7]

Criticism

There has been some debate about the usefulness of P(doom) as a term, in part due to the lack of clarity about whether or not a given prediction is conditional on the existence of artificial general intelligence, the time frame, and the precise meaning of "doom".[6][8]

See also

Notes

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References

  1. ^ Cite error: The named reference :1 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  2. ^ Thomas, Sean (2024-03-04). "Are we ready for P(doom)?". The Spectator. Retrieved 2024-06-19.
  3. ^ Cite error: The named reference :2 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  4. ^ Metz, Cade (2023-05-01). "'The Godfather of A.I.' Leaves Google and Warns of Danger Ahead". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2024-06-19.
  5. ^ "One of the "godfathers of AI" airs his concerns". The Economist. ISSN 0013-0613. Retrieved 2024-06-19.
  6. ^ a b Cite error: The named reference :0 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  7. ^ "2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI". AI Impacts. 2022-08-04. Retrieved 2024-06-19.
  8. ^ King, Isaac (2024-01-01). "Stop talking about p(doom)". LessWrong.
  9. ^ "GUM & Ambrose Kenny-Smith are teaming up again for new collaborative album 'III Times'". DIY. 2024-05-07. Retrieved 2024-06-19.
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