„Global Forecast System“ – Versionsunterschied

[ungesichtete Version][ungesichtete Version]
Inhalt gelöscht Inhalt hinzugefügt
JMyrleFuller (Diskussion | Beiträge)
KKeine Bearbeitungszusammenfassung
Demize (Diskussion | Beiträge)
K general fixes, replaced: due to the fact that → because using AWB
Zeile 1:
[[Image:GFS 850 MB.PNG|right|300px|thumb|An example of a forecast product from the GFS, in this case a 96-hour forecast of 850 [[millibar|mb]] [[geopotential height]] and [[temperature]]]]
The '''Global Forecast System''' ('''GFS''') is a global [[numerical weather prediction]] [[computer model]] run by [[NOAA]]. This [[mathematical model]] is run four times a day and produces forecasts up to 16 days in advance, but with decreasing spatial and temporal resolution over time. It is widely accepted that beyond 7 days the forecast is very general and not very accurate, and most nongovernmental agencies rarely use any of the model's results beyond 10 days (mainly due to the fact thatbecause there is no other 16-day model with which to compare). Along with the [[European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts|ECMWF]]'s [[Integrated Forecast System]], which runs out 10 days, it is one of the two predominant synoptic scale medium-range models in general use.
 
The model is run in two parts: the first part has a higher resolution and goes out to 180 hours (7 days) in the future, the second part runs from 180 to 384 hours (16 days) at a lower resolution. The resolution of the model varies in each part of the model: horizontally, it divides the surface of the earth into 35 or 70 kilometre grid squares; vertically, it divides the atmosphere into 64 layers and temporally, it produces a forecast for every 3rd hour for the first 180 hours, after that they are produced for every 12th hour. The GFS is also used to produce [[model output statistics]], both in a short range (every 3 hours, out to 72 hours) and in an extended range (every 12 hours, out to 8 days).