Arabischer Winter

2014-11-08T15:47:32Z

Noteswork: /* ISIL conflict */ match few above

{{Article for deletion/dated|page=Arab Winter|timestamp=20141102050653|year=2014|month=November|day=2|substed=yes}}


The '''Arab Winter'''<ref name=telegraph>{{cite web|url=http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/9753123/Middle-East-review-of-2012-the-Arab-Winter.html|title=Middle East review of 2012: the Arab Winter - Telegraph|publisher=telegraph.co.uk|accessdate=2014-07-19}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Analysis-Arab-Winter-is-coming-to-Baghdad-359348|title=Analysis: Arab Winter is coming to Baghdad|publisher=Telegraph.co.uk|accessdate=8 October 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.cbn.com/cbnnews/us/2014/April/Expert-Warns-of-Americas-Coming-Arab-Winter/|title=Expert Warns of America's Coming 'Arab Winter'|publisher=Cbn.com|accessdate=8 October 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-arab-winter|title=The Arab Winter|work=The New Yorker|accessdate=8 October 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.spu.edu/about-spu/news/articles/2014/may/arab-spring|title=Arab Spring or Arab Winter?|publisher=Newyorker.com|accessdate=8 October 2014}}</ref> is a term for the wide-scale violence and instability evolving in the aftermath of the [[Arab Spring]] protests in [[Arab League]] countries. The Arab Winter is referring to the events across the Arab World, including the [[Syrian Civil War]],<ref>{{cite web|url=http://books.google.co.il/books?id=__lUxmzAZ08C&pg=PA296&lpg=PA296&dq=%22Arab+winter%22+Syrian+civil+war&source=bl&ots=v4Uk9b5NaB&sig=MxTC6EEdJxaw1Gd673Qr2c6I2Gw&hl=iw&sa=X&ei=xa1CVJi7LszhaNCWgMgH&ved=0CEEQ6AEwBQ#v=onepage&q=%22Arab%20winter%22%20Syrian%20civil%20war&f=false|title=Fear and Faith in Paradise|publisher=|accessdate=23 October 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://americamagazine.org/issue/culture/arab-winter|title=Arab Winter|work=America Staging|accessdate=23 October 2014}}</ref> the [[Iraqi insurgency (post-U.S. withdrawal)|Iraqi insurgency]],<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Analysis-Arab-Winter-is-coming-to-Baghdad-359348|title=Analysis: Arab Winter is coming to Baghdad|publisher=|accessdate=23 October 2014}}</ref> the [[Egyptian Crisis (2011-present)|Egyptian Crisis]],<ref name=euronews>{{cite web|url=http://www.euronews.com/2013/02/08/egypt-and-tunisia-s-new-arab-winter/|title=Egypt and Tunisia’s new ‘Arab winter’|work=euronews|accessdate=23 October 2014}}</ref> and instability in [[Yemen]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/yemen-s-arab-winter-1470341500|title=Yemen’s Arab winter|work=Middle East Eye|accessdate=23 October 2014}}</ref> Political developments, particularly the restoration of authoritarianism and suppression of civil liberties, in Egypt since 3 July 2013 have been described as constituting a "military winter" functioning in opposition to the goals of the Arab Spring.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.thenation.com/article/175121/coup-egypt-arab-winter|title=The Coup in Egypt: An Arab Winter?|work=The Nation|date=5 July 2013|accessdate=1 November 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/01/21/egypt-arab-spring_n_4568523.html|title=In Egypt, Arab Spring Gives Way To Military Winter|work=The World Post|date=21 January 2014|accessdate=1 November 2014}}</ref> The arenas of [[Syrian Civil War spillover in Lebanon|Lebanon]], [[Libya]] and Bahrain were also described as minor arenas of the Arab Winter.<ref name=rivlin/> Libya was put as a scene of the Arab Winter, together with Syria by Prof. Sean Yom.<ref>{{cite web|title=Lecture Explores Past and Future Arab Spring|url=http://daily.swarthmore.edu/2014/10/10/lecture-explores-past-and-future-arab-spring/|publisher=Daily Gazette|accessdate=19 October 2014}}</ref>

The Arab Winter is characterized by the emergence of multiple regional civil wars, mounting regional instability,<ref>{{cite web|url=http://theconversation.com/from-egypt-to-syria-this-could-be-the-start-of-the-arab-winter-17335|title=From Egypt to Syria, this could be the start of the Arab Winter|date=17 April 2014|work=The Conversation|accessdate=23 October 2014}}</ref> economic and demographic decline of Arab countries,<ref name=rivlin/> and ethno-religious sectarian strife.<ref>[http://www.iemed.org/observatori/arees-danalisi/arxius-adjunts/anuari/iemed-2013/Malmvig%20Lassen%20Arab%20Uprisings%20Regional%20Implications%20EN.pdf]</ref> As of summer 2014, the Arab Winter has produced about a quarter of a million deaths and millions of refugees.<ref>''Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa - between the Arab Winter and the Arab Spring''. International Affairs. [http://www.aub.edu.lb/ifi/international_affairs/Documents/working_paper_series/20130828_IA_WP_AUB_Paper_on_Displacement_in_Arab_Spring.pdf]</ref>

According to the [[Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies]], as of January 2014, the cost of Arab Winter upheaval across the Arab World is some 800 billion USD.<ref name=rivlin>Dr. Rivlin, P. Dayan Research Center. [http://www.dayan.org/sites/default/files/Iqtisadi%202014/Iqtisadi_Jan_14_ENG.pdf]</ref> Some 16 million people in Syria, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey are expected to require humanitarian assistance in 2014.<ref name=rivlin/>

==Arenas==
===ISIL conflict===
{{Original research|section|date=October 2014}}
{{further|Timeline of the Iraqi insurgency (2014)}}

{|class="wikitable sortable"
|-
! scope="col"| Country
! scope="col"| Date started
! scope="col"| Status
! scope="col" class="unsortable"| Outcome
! scope="col"| Death toll
! scope="col"| Situation
|-
|{{flag|Iraq}}
|{{dts|format=dmy|2011|12|18}}
|Ongoing
|<nowiki></nowiki>
*Spillover violence from the [[Syrian Civil War]] leading to an ISIS invasion.
*[[Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant]] (ISIS) [[Northern Iraq offensive (June 2014)|captures]] [[Mosul]] and [[Tikrit]] among other cities in June 2014 and declares a new caliphate.
*Ethnic cleansing and [[Persecution of Assyrians by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant|persecution of Assyrians]],[[Persecution of Yazidis by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant|Yazidis]], and mass executions of [[Shia Muslims]] by ISIS.
*[[Northern Iraq offensive (August 2014)|ISIS advance]] on [[Iraqi Kurdistan|Kurdish regions]].
|{{ntsh|16027}} 23,138+
! style="color:#fff; background:#950000;"|[[Iraqi insurgency (2011–present)|Ongoing Insurgency]]
|-
|{{flag|Lebanon}}
|{{dts|format=dmy|2011|6|17}}
|Ongoing
|<nowiki></nowiki>
*Spillover violence from the [[Syrian Civil War]] between forces that support the Syrian government and others that oppose it.
*Full scale battles around the Bekka Valley and the town of Arsal.
*Chaos in the government, including a prolonged presidential interregnum and the cancellation of Parliamentary elections.<ref name="Lebanese parliament delays June election, deepening drift">{{cite news|url=http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/31/us-lebanon-parliament-election-idUSBRE94U19N20130531|title=Lebanese parliament delays June election, deepening drift|publisher=Reuters|date=31 May 2013|accessdate=20 September 2014}}</ref>
|{{ntsh|457}} 457–474
! style="color:#fff; background:#004a80;"|[[Syrian Civil War spillover in Lebanon|D Civil disorder]]
|-
|{{flag|Syria}}
|{{dts|format=dmy|2011|3|15|}}
|Ongoing
|<nowiki></nowiki>
*Large defections from the Syrian army and clashes between soldiers and defectors<ref name="Syrian army units 'clash over crackdown'">{{cite news|url=http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/04/2011428182333234775.html|title=Syrian army units 'clash over crackdown'|publisher=Al Jazeera|date=28 April 2011|accessdate=28 April 2011}}</ref>
*Formation of the [[Free Syrian Army]]
*The Free Syrian Army takes controls of large swathes of land across Syria.
*Battles between the Syrian government's army and the [[Free Syrian Army]] in many governorates.
*Formation of the [[Syrian National Council]]<ref name="Syrian dissidents form national council">{{cite news|url=http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/08/23/2372099/syrian-dissidents-form-national.html|title=Syrian dissidents form national council|first=Ipek|last=Yezdani|work=The Miami Herald|date=23 August 2011|accessdate=24 August 2011}}{{Dead link|date=May 2014}}</ref>
*Syria suspended from the [[Arab League]]
*Several countries recognize [[National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces|Syrian]] [[government in exile]]
*Kurdish fighters enter the war by mid-2013
|{{ntsh|160000}} 191,000+<ref>{{cite news| url=http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Latest-News-Wires/2014/0822/UN-reports-Syria-conflict-death-toll-reaches-191-000-video | agency=Christian Science Monitor | title=Syria war death toll tops 191,000 | date=22 August 2014}}</ref>
! style="color:#fff; background:#950000;"|[[Syrian Civil War|Ongoing civil war]]
|-
|}

===North Africa===
{|class="wikitable sortable" style="font-size: 95%"
|-
! scope="col" style="width:10%;"| Country
! scope="col" style="width:10%;"| Date started
! scope="col" style="width:16%;"| Status
! scope="col" style="width:40%;" class="unsortable"| Outcome
! scope="col" style="width:10%;"| Death toll
! scope="col" style="width:14%;"| Situation
|-
|{{flag|Egypt}}
|{{dts|format=dmy|2012|11|22}}
|Government overthrown in July 2013. Ongoing unrest.
|<nowiki></nowiki>
'''Protests over the imposition of an Islamist-backed constitution by the [[Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt|Muslim Brotherhood]] and [[Mohamed Morsi]] lead to a [[2013 Egyptian coup d'état|coup d'état]].'''
*[[Egyptian presidential election, 2012|Democratic election]] held to replace Mubarak as the new president of Egypt; [[Mohamed Morsi]] elected and inaugurated<ref name="Mohammed Morsi sworn in as Egypt's president">{{cite news|url=http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57464345/mohammed-morsi-sworn-in-as-egypts-president/ |title=Mohammed Morsi sworn in as Egypt's president |publisher=CBS News |date=30 June 2012 |accessdate=2012-09-28}}</ref>
*Morsi removed by military in a [[2013 Egyptian coup d'état|coup d'état]] following a [[Egyptian Revolution of 2013|second revolution]] that came after months of [[2012–13 Egyptian protests|protests]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/03/mohamed-morsi-egypt-second-revolution|title=Mohamed Morsi ousted in Egypt's second revolution in two years|date=4 July 2013|publisher=The Guardian}}</ref>
*Crackdown on the [[Muslim Brotherhood]] and other Islamists:
**Senior Islamist figures have been arrested and face trial.{{#tag:ref|See <ref>{{cite web|url=http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/76158/Egypt/Politics-/Prosecution-orders-arrest-of-leading-Brotherhood-m.aspx|title=Prosecution orders arrest of leading Brotherhood members|date=10 July 2013|publisher=Ahram Online}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/75721/Egypt/Politics-/Former-Brotherhood-supreme-guide-Akef-arrested-.aspx|title=Former Brotherhood supreme guide Akef arrested|date=4 July 2013|publisher=Ahram Online}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/75815/Egypt/Politics-/Muslim-Brotherhoods-secondman-ElShater-arrested-Se.aspx|title=Muslim Brotherhood's second-man El-Shater arrested: Security official|date=6 July 2013|publisher=Ahram Online}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/08/21/egypt-arrests-2-more-islamist-figures-hard-line-cleric-spokesman-for-muslim/|title=Egypt arrests 2 more Islamist figures: hard-line cleric, a spokesman for Muslim Brotherhood|date=21 August 2013|publisher=Fox News}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/egypt-police-arrest-muslim-brotherhood-chiefs-mohammed-elbeltagy-and-khaled-alazhari-8790828.html|title=Egypt: Police arrest Muslim Brotherhood chiefs Mohammed el-Beltagy and Khaled Al-Azhari|date=30 August 2013|publisher=The Independent|location=London}}</ref>}}
**[[August 2013 Rabaa Massacre|Violent dispersal]] of pro-Morsi sit-ins on August 14, 2013.
**A court bans all Muslim Brotherhood activities nationwide and its assets are confiscated.<ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/23/us-egypt-brotherhood-idUSBRE98M0QR20130923|title=Egyptian court bans Muslim Brotherhood|date=23 September 2013|publisher=Reuters}}</ref> The government eventually designates the group as a [[terrorist organization]] on December 25, 2013.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/90037.aspx|title=Egypt government declares Muslim Brotherhood 'terrorist group'|date=26 December 2013|publisher=Al-Ahram}}</ref>
**Sentencing to death of hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood supporters.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-26712124|title=Egypt court sentences 528 Morsi supporters to death|date=March 24, 2014|publisher=BBC}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://edition.cnn.com/2014/04/28/world/africa/egypt-politics/|title=Egypt court sentences hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood supporters to death|date=April 29, 2014|publisher=CNN}}</ref>
**[[Islamist unrest in Egypt (2013–present)|Ongoing Islamist unrest]] in response to the coup.
*[[Abdel Fattah el-Sisi]] becomes president following a [[Egyptian presidential election, 2014|second election]].
;[[Sinai insurgency]]:
*[[Egyptian Armed Forces]] launch anti-terror military operations in the Sinai due to increased attacks by insurgents since the ousting of Morsi.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/75792/Egypt/Politics-/Clashes-in-Sinai-over-Morsi-removal.aspx|title=Clashes in Sinai over Morsi removal|publisher=Ahram Online|date=5 July 2013|accessdate=5 July 2013}}</ref>
|{{ntsh|3500}} 3,500+{{#tag:ref|See <ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2013/06/02/anhri-releases-names-of-dead/|title=ANHRI releases names of dead|date=June 2, 2013|publisher=Daily News Egypt}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-21289729|title=Egypt protesters clash with police at presidential palace|date=February 1, 2013|publisher=BBC}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2013/jul/08/egypt-dead-injured-toll-so-far|title=Egypt's dead and injured: the toll so far|date=July 8, 2013|publisher=The Guardian}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://carnegieendowment.org/2014/03/24/egypt-s-unprecedented-instability-by-numbers/h5j3|title=Egypt’s Unprecedented Instability by the Numbers|date=March 24, 2014|publisher=Carnegie Endowment for International Peace}}</ref>}}
! style="color:#fff; background:#00112b;"|[[Egyptian Crisis (2011–present)|EGovernment overthrown]]
|-
||{{flag|Libya}}
|{{dts|format=dmy|2011|8|23}}
|Ongoing violence
|<nowiki></nowiki>
*[[Post-civil war violence in Libya|Sporadic low-level fighting and clashes]]<ref name="Fighters clash again near Tripoli, several dead">{{cite news|url=http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/12/us-libya-clashes-idUSTRE7AB0HU20111112|title=Fighters clash again near Tripoli, several dead|agency=Reuters|date=12 November 2011}}</ref>
*[[Libyan General National Congress election, 2012|Elections]] to a [[General National Congress]] on 7 July 2012.
*In May 2014, General [[Khalifa Haftar|Khalifa Belqasim Haftar]] launched [[2014 Libyan conflict|a large scale air and ground offensive]] codenamed ''Operation Dignity'' on Islamist militia groups.
*Conflict intensifies in July 2014 and is driven out of Benghazi by [[Ansar al-Sharia (Benghazi)|Ansar al-Sharia]] militants who declare the region an "Islamic emirate".<ref>{{cite web | url=http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/31/world/middleeast/libya-benghazi-march-protests-militias.html?_r=1 | title=Libya: Benghazi March Protests Militias | publisher=The New York Times | date=30 July 2014 | accessdate=16 August 2014 | author=Fahim, Kareem}}</ref>
|
! style="color:#fff; background:#950000;"|[[2014 Libyan Civil War|E Ongoing civil war]]
|-
|{{flag|Tunisia}}
|{{dts|format=dmy|2011|10|23}}
|New constitution enacted
|<nowiki></nowiki>
'''[[Ennahda Movement|Ennahda]]-led government resigns; [[Mehdi Jomaa]] becomes the new prime minister.'''
*Elections to a [[Tunisian Constituent Assembly election, 2011|Constituent Assembly]] on 23 October 2011<ref name="Tunisia election delayed until 23 October">{{cite news |url=http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/08/us-tunisia-election-idUSTRE7571R020110608 |title=Tunisia election delayed until 23 October |agency=Reuters |date=8 June 2011 |accessdate=8 June 2011}}</ref>
*[[2013 protests in Tunisia|2013-14 protests]] against the interim Islamist-led government.
*Prime Minister [[Ali Laarayedh]] resigns and replaced by a technocratic government formed by [[Mehdi Jomaa]], a former minister in [[Laarayedh Cabinet|Laarayedh's government]].
*New constitution [[Constitution of Tunisia|adopted]].
|
! style="color:#fff; background:#006400;"|[[Tunisian parliamentary election, 2014|E New parliament elected]]
|-
|}

==See also==
{{div col||25em}}
*[[Arab Revolt]]
*[[List of modern conflicts in North Africa]]
*[[List of modern conflicts in the Middle East]]
*[[List of ongoing armed conflicts]]
*[[Revolutions of 1820]]
*[[Revolutions of 1830]]
*[[Revolutions of 1848]]
*[[Revolutions of 1917–23]]
*[[Revolutions of 1989]]
{{div col end}}
{{Portal bar|Middle East|Africa|Politics|Social movements|2010s|Syrian Civil War}}

==References==
{{Reflist|colwidth=30em}}

{{Arab Spring}}
{{Post-Cold War Asian conflicts}}
{{Post-Cold War African conflicts}}

[[Category:Arab Winter| ]]
[[Category:History of North Africa]]
[[Category:History of the Middle East]]
[[Category:21st-century revolutions]]
[[Category:2012 in Africa]]
[[Category:2013 in Africa]]
[[Category:2014 in Africa]]
[[Category:2012 in Asia]]
[[Category:2013 in Asia]]
[[Category:2014 in Asia]]
[[Category:Revolutionary waves]]
[[Category:Impact of the Arab Spring]]

Wikipedia - Benutzerbeiträge [de]

Arabischer Winter