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Globales existenzielles Risiko

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An '''existential risk''' narrowly refers to any factor threatening the existence of humanity. Existential risks may also broadly refer to any of the various risks that have the potential to destroy, or drastically restrict, human civilization; to lead to [[human extinction]]; or even to cause the end of Earth.<ref>Bostrom 2002, section 1.2</ref> Severe events could cause the extinction of all life on the planet Earth, the destruction of the planet Earth, the annihilation of the solar system, to the [[ultimate fate of the universe|annihilation of our galaxy or even the entire universe]]. Existential risks are distinguished from other forms of risk both by their scope, affecting all of humanity, and severity; destroying or irreversibly crippling the target.

Natural disasters, such as [[supervolcano]]es and [[asteroids]], may pose existential risks if sufficiently powerful, though man-made events could also threaten the survival of intelligent life on Earth, like catastrophic [[global warming]],<ref name="weitzman1">{{cite journal|last=Weitzman|first=Martin|title=On modeling and interpreting the economics of catastrophic climate change|journal=The Review of Economics and Statistics|year=2009|volume=91|issue=1|pages=1–19}}</ref> nuclear war, or [[bioterrorism]].

Despite the importance of existential risks, it is a difficult subject to study directly since humankind has never been destroyed before; while this does not mean that it will not be in the future, it does make modelling existential risks difficult, due in part to [[survivorship bias]].

While individual threats, such as those posed by nuclear war or [[climate change]], have been intensively studied on their own, very little systematic work in the area of existential risks was done before the beginning of the 21st century.<ref name="Bostrom 2002, section 2">Bostrom 2002, section 2</ref> A precise estimate of each individual risk may not be necessary when compiling the aggregate risk to mankind.

==Types of risks==
[[File:X-risk chart.jpg|thumb|517px|right|Scope/intensity grid from Bostrom's paper "The Concept of Existential Risk".]]
Various risks exist for humanity, but not all are equal. Risks can be roughly categorized based on the scope (personal, regional, global) and the intensity (endurable, terminal). The chart to the right provides some examples.

The risks discussed in this article are at least Global and Terminal in intensity. These types of risks are ones where an adverse outcome would either annihilate intelligent life on Earth, or permanently and drastically reduce its potential. [[Jamais Cascio]] made an alternative classification system.<ref>{{cite web|last=Cascio |first=Jamais |url=http://www.openthefuture.com/2006/12/an_eschatological_taxonomy.html |title=An Eschatological Taxonomy |publisher=Open the Future |date=2006-12-31 |accessdate=2012-01-31}}</ref>

==Chances of an existential catastrophe==
Some risks, such as that from asteroid impact, with a one-in-a-million chance of causing humankind extinction in the next century,<ref>{{cite journal|last=Matheny|first=James Gaverick|title=Reducing the Risk of Human Extinction|journal=Risk Analysis|year=2007|volume=27|issue=5}}</ref> have had their probabilities predicted with considerable accuracy (though later research suggested the actual rate of large impacts could be much higher than predicted).<ref>Asher, D.J., Bailey, M.E., Emel’yanenko, V., and Napier, W.M. (2005). Earth in the cosmic shooting gallery. *The Observatory*, 125, 319-322.</ref> Similarly, the frequency of volcanic eruptions of sufficient magnitude to cause catastrophic climate change, similar to the [[Toba catastrophe theory|Toba Eruption]], which almost caused the extinction of the human race,<ref>{{Harvnb|Ambrose|1998}}; {{Harvnb|Rampino|Ambrose|2000}}, pp. 71, 80.</ref> has been estimated at about 1 in every 50,000 years.<ref>Rampino, M.R. and Ambrose, S.H. (2002). Super eruptions as a threat to civilizations on Earth-like planets. *Icarus*, 156, 562-569</ref> However, the relative danger posed by other threats is much more difficult to calculate. Though experts at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference suggested a 19% chance of human extinction over the next century, the report cautions that the methods used to average responses to the informal survey is suspect due to the treatment of non-responses.<ref>Global Catastrophic Risks Survey, Technical Report, 2008, Future of Humanity Institute</ref>

There are significant methodological challenges in estimating these risks with precision. Most attention has been given to risks to human civilization over the next 100 years, but forecasting for this length of time is difficult. The types of threats posed by nature may prove relatively constant, though new risks could be discovered. Anthropogenic threats, however, are likely to change dramatically with the development of new technology; while volcanoes have been a threat throughout history, nuclear weapons have only been an issue since the 20th century. Historically, the ability of experts to predict the future over these timescales has proved very limited, though modern probabilistic forecasting methods, like [[prediction market]]s, as well as more traditional approaches such as peer review could increase the accuracy of prediction.<ref>Record of the Workshop on Policy Foresight and Global Catastrophic Risks, Future of Humanity Institute</ref>

Man-made threats such as nuclear war or [[nanotechnology]] are even harder to predict, due to the inherent methodological difficulties in the social sciences. During the [[Cuban Missile Crisis]], President Kennedy estimated that there was between a third and a half chance of nuclear war. Despite this, in general it is hard to estimate the magnitude of the risk from this or other dangers, especially as both international relations and technology can change rapidly.

Existential risks pose unique challenges to prediction, even more than other long-term events, because of [[Anthropic principle|observation selection effects]]. Unlike with most events, the failure of catastrophic events to occur in the past is not evidence against their likelihood in the future, because every world that has experienced one has no observers, so regardless of their frequency, no civilization observes existential risks in its history.<ref name="autogenerated1">Observation Selection Effects and Global Catastrophic Risks, Milan Cirkovic, 2008</ref> These anthropic issues can be avoided by looking at evidence that does not have such selection effects, such as asteroid impact craters on the Moon, or directly evaluating the likely impact of new technology.

===Fermi paradox===
{{main|Fermi paradox}}
Many extra-solar planets have been discovered,<ref name="Encyclopedia">{{cite web
|author=[[Jean Schneider]]
|year=2011
|title=Interactive Extra-solar Planets Catalog
|url=http://exoplanet.eu/catalog.php
|work=[[The Extrasolar Planets Encyclopedia]]
|accessdate=23 June 2011
}}</ref> and there are likely to be many more Earth-like planets, capable of supporting life. Given the relative rapidity with which life evolved on Earth, and the size of the observable universe, it seems ''[[a priori and a posteriori|a priori]]'' likely that intelligent life would have independently arisen on other planets. Therefore, the absence of any sign of intelligent life beyond the earth forms an apparent paradox. Especially relevant is the absence of large-scale [[Astroengineering|astro-engineering]] projects, suggesting that few civilizations survive to colonize space.<ref name="autogenerated1"/>

While a variety of explanations for the Fermi paradox exist, such as that the Earth may be part of a galactic zoo, one plausible explanation is that a [[Great Filter]] exists; an evolutionary step between the emergence of life on an Earth-like planet and the [[colonization of space]] that is incredibly hard to take.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://hanson.gmu.edu/greatfilter.html |title=The Great Filter |publisher=Hanson.gmu.edu |date= |accessdate=2012-01-31}}</ref> Clearly, if this filter is ahead of us – perhaps most civilizations destroy themselves in nuclear wars – then unless humanity is very unusual, it is likely to prevent us from colonizing space.<ref>Anthropic Reasoning in the Great Filter, Katja Grace</ref>

===Cognitive bias===

Research into [[cognitive biases]] reveals a number of ways in which humans fall short of unbiased rationality, many of which affect the prediction of existential risks. For example, [[availability bias]] may make people underestimate the danger of existential risks, as clearly no-one has any experience of them. Equally, [[hindsight bias]] makes past events appear to have been more predictable than they actually were,<ref>I knew it would happen:remembered probabilities of once-future things. *Organ. Behav. Human Perf.,* 13, 1-16</ref> leading to overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.

[[Conjunction fallacy|Conjunction bias]] occurs when people overestimate the likelihood of conjunctions; for example, considering an activist more likely to grow up into a feminist bank worker than a bank worker.<ref>Sides, A., Osherson, D., Bonini, N., and Viale, R. (2002). On the reality of the conjunction fallacy. *Memory Cogn.,* 30(2). 191-198</ref>{{clarify|date=February 2013}} Equally, people underestimate the likelihood of disjunctions.<ref>Tversky and Kahneman, 1974, Judgement under Uncertainty: heuristics and biases. *Science*, 185, 251-284.</ref> The threat of existential risks is heavily disjunctive; nuclear war or climate change or bioterrorism or asteroids or solar flares or artificial intelligence – so people tend to underestimate its plausibility.<ref>Eliezer Yudkowsky, 2008, Cognitive Biases potentially affecting judgements of global risks</ref>

There are many other biases that affect how likely people think existential disasters to be, such as overconfidence and [[anchoring]], or how whether or not they get involved, such as [[bystander effect]]. A different type of bias is that caused by [[scope insensitivity]]. Rather than causing people to under- or overestimate the likelihood of an existential disaster, scope insensitivity affects how bad people consider the extinction of the human race to be. While people may be motivated to donate money to alleviate the ill, the quantity they’re willing to give does not scale linearly with the magnitude of the issue; for example, people are as concerned about 200,000 birds getting stuck in oil as they are about 2,000, rather than a hundred times more concerned.<ref>Desvousges, W.H., Johnson, F.R., Dunford, R.W., Boyle, K.J., Hudson, S.P., and Wilson, N. 1993, Measuring natural resource damages with contingent valuation: tests of validity and reliability. In Hausman, J.A. (ed), *Contingent Valuation:A Critical Assessment,* pp91-159 (Amsterdam: North Holland).</ref> Similarly, people are often more concerned about threats to individuals than to larger groups.

==Potential importance of existential risk==
Some scholars have strongly favored reducing existential risk on the grounds that it greatly benefits future generations. [[Derek Parfit]] argues that extinction would be a great loss because our descendants could potentially survive for a billion years before the increasing heat of the Sun makes the Earth become uninhabitable.<ref>{{cite book|last=Parfit|first=Derek|title=Reasons and Persons|year=1984|publisher=Oxford University Press|pages=453–454}}</ref> Bostrom argues that there is even greater potential in colonizing space. If our descendants colonize space, we may be able to support a very large number of people on other planets, potentially lasting for trillions of years.<ref>{{cite journal|last=Bostrom|first=Nick|title=Astronomical Waste: The opportunity cost of delayed technological development|journal=Utilitas|volume=15|issue=3|pages=308–314}}</ref> Therefore, reducing existential risk by even a small amount would have a very significant impact on the expected number of people that will exist in the future.

Little has been written arguing ''against'' these positions, but some scholars would disagree. [[Exponential discounting]] might make these future benefits much less significant, and some philosophers doubt the value of ensuring the existence of future generations.<ref>{{cite journal|last=Narveson|first=Jan|title=Utilitarianism and New Generations|journal=Mind|year=1967|volume=76}}</ref>

Some economists have also discussed the importance of existential risks, though most of the discussion goes under the name “catastrophic risk.” Martin Weitzman argues that most of the expected economic damage from climate change may come from the small chance that warming greatly exceeds the mid-range expectations, resulting in catastrophic damage.<ref name="weitzman1"/> [[Richard Posner]] has argued that we are doing far too little, in general, about small, hard-to-estimate risks of large scale catastrophes.<ref>{{cite book|last=Posner|first=Richard|title=Catastrophe: risk and response|year=2004|publisher=Oxford University Press}}</ref>

==Future scenarios==
Many scenarios have been suggested. Some that will almost certainly end life on Earth are certain to occur, but on a very long timescale. Others are likely to happen on a shorter timescale, but will probably not completely destroy civilization. Still others are extremely unlikely, and may even be impossible. For example, [[Nick Bostrom]] writes:
<blockquote>Some foreseen hazards (hence not members of the current category) which have been excluded from the list on grounds that they seem too unlikely to cause a global terminal disaster are: solar flares, supernovae, black hole explosions or mergers, gamma-ray bursts, galactic center outbursts, buildup of air pollution, gradual loss of human fertility, and various religious doomsday scenarios.<ref name="unlikely">Bostrom 2002, section 4.7</ref></blockquote>

===Humanity===
{{See also|Human extinction}}
Some threats for humanity come [[Omnicide|from humanity itself]].

====Technology====
A category of existential risk are consequences of technology.

In 2012, [[Cambridge University]] created ''The Cambridge Project for Existential Risk'' which examines threats to humankind caused by developing technologies.<ref name=cser>{{cite web |url=http://cser.org/ |title=The Cambridge Project for Existential Risk |publisher=Cambridge University}}</ref> The stated aim is to establish within the University a multidisciplinary research centre, [[Centre for the Study of Existential Risk]], dedicated to the scientific study and mitigation of existential risks of this kind.<ref name=cser/>

Cambridge identified the "four greatest threats" to the human species: artificial intelligence, climate change, nuclear war and biotechnology.

=====Biotechnology=====

[[Biotechnology]] could lead to the creation of a [[pandemic]], [[chemical warfare]] could be taken to an extreme, [[nanotechnology]] could lead to [[grey goo]] in which out-of-control [[self replication|self-replicating]] robots consume all living matter on earth while building more of themselves - in both cases, either deliberately or by accident.<ref name="drexler">[[Eric Drexler]], [[Engines of Creation]], ISBN 0-385-19973-2, [http://www.foresight.org/EOC/ available online]</ref>

=====Artificial intelligence=====

It has been suggested that [[Ethics of artificial intelligence#Unintended consequences|learning computers]] that rapidly become [[superintelligence|superintelligent]] may take unforeseen actions or that [[Robot#Social impact|robots]] would out-compete humanity (one [[technological singularity]] scenario).<ref name="billjoy">[[Bill Joy]], [http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy_pr.html Why the future doesn't need us]. In:[[Wired magazine]]. See also [[technological singularity]].[[Nick Bostrom]] 2002 Ethical Issues in Advanced Artificial Intelligence http://www.nickbostrom.com</ref> Because of its exceptional scheduling and organizational capability and the range of novel technologies it could develop, it is possible that the first Earth superintelligence to emerge could rapidly become matchless and unrivaled: conceivably it would be able to bring about almost any possible outcome, and be able to foil virtually any attempt that threatened to prevent it achieving its objectives.<ref name="Bostrom">[[Nick Bostrom]] 2002 Ethical Issues in Advanced Artificial Intelligence http://www.nickbostrom.com</ref> It could eliminate, wiping out if it chose, any other challenging rival intellects; alternatively it might manipulate or persuade them to change their behavior towards its own interests, or it may merely obstruct their attempts at interference.<ref name="Bostrom" />

[[Vernor Vinge]] has suggested that a moment may come when computers and robots are smarter than humans. He calls this "[[Technological singularity|the Singularity]]."<ref name="nytimes july09"/> He suggests that it may be somewhat or possibly very dangerous for humans.<ref>[http://www-rohan.sdsu.edu/faculty/vinge/misc/singularity.html The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era], by Vernor Vinge, Department of Mathematical Sciences, San Diego State University, (c) 1993 by Vernor Vinge.</ref> This is discussed by a philosophy called [[Singularitarianism]].

In 2009, experts attended a conference hosted by the [[Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence]] (AAAI) to discuss whether computers and robots might be able to acquire any sort of [[autonomy]], and how much these abilities might pose a threat or hazard. They noted that some robots have acquired various forms of semi-autonomy, including being able to find power sources on their own and being able to independently choose targets to attack with weapons. They also noted that some computer viruses can evade elimination and have achieved "cockroach intelligence." They noted that self-awareness as depicted in science-fiction is probably unlikely, but that there were other potential hazards and pitfalls.<ref name="nytimes july09">[http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/26/science/26robot.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper Scientists Worry Machines May Outsmart Man] By JOHN MARKOFF, NY Times, July 26, 2009.</ref> Various media sources and scientific groups have noted separate trends in differing areas which might together result in greater robotic functionalities and autonomy, and which pose some inherent concerns.<ref>[http://www.slate.com/id/2218834/ Gaming the Robot Revolution: A military technology expert weighs in on Terminator: Salvation]., By P. W. Singer, slate.com Thursday, May 21, 2009.</ref><ref>[http://www.gyre.org/news/explore/robot-takeover Robot takeover], gyre.org.</ref><ref>[http://www.engadget.com/tag/robotapocalypse robot page], engadget.com.</ref>

Some experts and academics have questioned the use of robots for military combat, especially when such robots are given some degree of autonomous functions.<ref>[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/8182003.stm Call for debate on killer robots], By Jason Palmer, Science and technology reporter, BBC News, 8/3/09.</ref> There are also concerns about technology which might allow some armed robots to be controlled mainly by other robots.<ref>[http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/08/robot-three-way-portends-autonomous-future/ Robot Three-Way Portends Autonomous Future], By David Axe wired.com, August 13, 2009.</ref>

The US Navy has funded a report which indicates that as [[military robots]] become more complex, there should be greater attention to implications of their ability to make autonomous decisions.<ref>[http://www.dailytech.com/New%20Navyfunded%20Report%20Warns%20of%20War%20Robots%20Going%20Terminator/article14298.htm New Navy-funded Report Warns of War Robots Going "Terminator"], by Jason Mick (Blog), dailytech.com, February 17, 2009.</ref><ref>[http://www.engadget.com/2009/02/18/navy-report-warns-of-robot-uprising-suggests-a-strong-moral-com/ Navy report warns of robot uprising, suggests a strong moral compass], by Joseph L. Flatley engadget.com, Feb 18th 2009.</ref> One researcher states that autonomous robots might be more humane, as they could make decisions more effectively. However, other experts question this.<ref>[http://www.csmonitor.com/layout/set/print/content/view/print/279448 New role for robot warriors;] Drones are just part of a bid to automate combat. Can virtual ethics make machines decisionmakers?, by Gregory M. Lamb / Staff writer, Christian Science Monitor, February 17, 2010.</ref>

Nick Bostrom suggested that in the pursuit of knowledge humanity might inadvertently create a device that could destroy Earth and our solar system.<ref name="physicsaccident">Bostrom 2002, section 4.8</ref>

=====Warfare and mass destruction=====
The scenarios that have been explored most frequently are nuclear warfare and [[Doomsday device]]s. There is difficulty in predicting whether such would exterminate humanity{{Citation needed|date=January 2013}}, however a [[nuclear winter]] would cause significant upheaval in advanced civilizations.<ref name="nuclearwinter">Bostrom 2002, section 4.2.</ref>

=====Man-made global warming=====
{{Main|Extinction risk from global warming|Avoiding dangerous climate change}}

[[Global warming]] refers to the warming caused by human technology since the 19th century. Global warming reflects abnormal variations to the expected climate within the Earth's atmosphere and subsequent effects on other parts of the Earth, such as in the ice caps, rising seas, melting glaciers, drought and so on.

According to the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs ([[OCHA]]), climate disasters are on the rise. Around 70 percent of disasters are now climate related – up from around 50 percent from two decades ago.<ref name="OCHA">{{cite web | title= Climate Change: Coping with the Humanitarian Impact | publisher=[[OCHA]] | url=http://ochaonline.un.org/News/InFocus/ClimateChangeHumanitarianImpact/tabid/5099/language/en-US/Default.aspx}}</ref> These disasters take a heavier human toll and come with a higher price tag.<ref name="IRIN">{{cite web | title= Humanitarian costs of climate change unpredictable| publisher=[[IRIN]] | url=http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=83030}}</ref> In the last decade, 2.4 billion people were affected by climate related disasters, compared to 1.7 billion in the previous decade and the cost of responding to disasters has risen tenfold between 1992 and 2008.<ref name="OCHA"/> Destructive sudden heavy rains, intense tropical storms, repeated flooding and droughts are likely to increase, as will the vulnerability of local communities in the absence of strong concerted action.<ref name="IRIN">{{cite web | title= Gathering Storm - the humanitarian impact of climate change | publisher=[[IRIN]] | url=http://www.irinnews.org/IndepthMain.aspx?IndepthId=73&ReportId=78246}}</ref> [[Sea level rise]] may completely inundate certain areas.

It has been suggested that runaway global warming ([[runaway climate change]]) might cause Earth to become searing hot like Venus. In less extreme scenarios it could cause the end of civilization, as we know it.<ref name="runaway">Isaac M. Held, Brian J. Soden, ''Water Vapor Feedback and Global Warming'', In: Annu. Rev. Energy Environ 2000. [http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~gth/netscape/2000/annrev00.pdf available online]. Page 449.</ref>

According to a UN climate report, the [[Himalayas|Himalayan]] glaciers that are the sources of [[Asia]]'s biggest rivers - [[Ganges]], [[Indus]], [[Brahmaputra]], [[Yangtze]], [[Mekong]], [[Salween]] and [[Yellow]] - could disappear by 2350 as temperatures rise.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/42387/story.htm |title=Vanishing Himalayan Glaciers Threaten a Billion |publisher=Planetark.com |date=2007-06-05 |accessdate=2012-01-31}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8387737.stm|title=Himalayan glaciers melting deadline 'a mistake' |date=December 5, 2009|publisher=BBC|accessdate=2009-12-12|first=Pallava|last=Bagla}}</ref> Approximately three billion people live in the [[drainage basin]] of the Himalayan rivers, which is almost half of the current human population (see [[Environmental migrant]]).<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.peopleandplanet.net/pdoc.php?id=3024|title= Big Melt Threatens Millions, Says UN|publisher=PeopleAndPlanet.net|date=June 4, 2007|archiveurl=http://web.archive.org/web/20091212055712/http://www.peopleandplanet.net/pdoc.php?id=3024|archivedate=December 12, 2009}}</ref> The Himalayan system, which includes outlying subranges, stretches across: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Nepal, Burma, Cambodia, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Malaysia and Pakistan. These areas could experience floods followed by droughts in coming decades. In India alone, the Ganges provides water for drinking and farming for more than 500 million people.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.rediff.com/news/2007/jul/24indus.htm |title=Ganges, Indus may not survive: climatologists |publisher=Rediff.com |date=2004-12-31 |accessdate=2012-01-31}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|author=english@peopledaily.com.cn |url=http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90781/90879/6222327.html |title=Glaciers melting at alarming speed |publisher=English.peopledaily.com.cn |date=2007-07-24 |accessdate=2012-01-31}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3998967.stm|title=Himalaya glaciers melt unnoticed|publisher=BBC | date=November 10, 2004}}</ref>

The west coast of North America, which gets much of its water from glaciers in mountain ranges such as the [[Rocky Mountains]], [[Cascade Mountains]] and [[Sierra Nevada (U.S.)|Sierra Nevada]], also would be affected.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/03/080317154235.htm |title=Glaciers Are Melting Faster Than Expected, UN Reports |publisher=Sciencedaily.com |date=2008-03-17 |accessdate=2012-01-31}}</ref><ref>[http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-snowpack2-2008may02,0,6563964.story Water shortage worst in decades, official says], Los Angeles Times</ref> According to the [[California Department of Water Resources]], if more water supplies are not found by 2020, California residents will face a [[water crisis|water shortfall]] nearly as great as the amount consumed today.<ref>[http://www.greatlakesdirectory.org/zarticles/082102_water_shortage.htm World Running Short on Water]{{Dead link |date=November 2012|url=http://web.archive.org/web/20090212092353/http://www.greatlakesdirectory.org/zarticles/082102_water_shortage.htm}}</ref>

Approximately 40% of the world's agricultural land is seriously degraded.<ref>{{cite news|last=Sample|first=Ian|title=Global food crisis looms as climate change and population growth strip fertile land|url=http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/aug/31/climatechange.food|newspaper=The Guardian|date=31 August 2007|location=London}}</ref> In Africa, if current trends of soil degradation continue, the continent might be able to feed just 25% of its population by 2025, according to [[United Nations University|UNU]]'s [[Ghana]]-based Institute for Natural Resources in Africa.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://news.mongabay.com/2006/1214-unu.html |title=Africa may be able to feed only 25% of its population by 2025 |publisher=News.mongabay.com |date= |accessdate=2012-01-31}}</ref>

[[James Lovelock]], creator of the [[Gaia hypothesis]], in his book ''[[The Revenge of Gaia]]'' (2006), has suggested that the elimination of [[rain forest]]s, and the falling planetary [[biodiversity]] is removing the [[homeostasis|homeostatic]] [[negative feedback]] mechanisms that maintain climate stability by reducing the effects of [[greenhouse gas]] emissions (particularly carbon dioxide). With the heating of the oceans, the extension of the [[thermocline]] layer into arctic and antarctic waters is preventing the overturning and nutrient enrichment necessary for [[algal blooms]] of [[phytoplankton]] on which the [[ecosystem]]s of these areas depend. With the loss of phytoplankton and tropical rain forests, two of the main [[carbon dioxide sink]]s for reducing global warming, he suggests a runaway [[positive feedback]] effect could cause tropical deserts to cover most of the world's tropical regions, and the disappearance of polar ice caps, posing a serious challenge to global civilization.

Using [[scenario analysis]], the [[Global Scenario Group]] (GSG), a coalition of international scientists convened by [[Paul Raskin]], developed a series of possible futures for the world as it enters a [[Planetary Phase of Civilization]]. One scenario involves the complete breakdown of civilization as the [[effects of global warming]] become more pronounced, competition for scarce resources increases, and the rift between the poor and the wealthy widens. The GSG’s other scenarios, such as [[Policy Reform]], [[Eco-Communalism]], and [[Great Transition]] avoid this societal collapse and eventually result in environmental and social [[sustainability]]. They claim the outcome is dependent on human choice<ref>[http://www.gtinitiative.org/documents/PDFFINALS/16WorldLines.pdf World Lines: Pathways, Pivots, and the Global Future]. [[Paul Raskin]]. 2006. Boston:[[Tellus Institute]]</ref> and the possible formation of a [[global citizens movement]] which could influence the trajectory of global development.<ref>[http://www.gtinitiative.org/documents/PDFFINALS/15Movements.pdf Dawn of the Cosmopolitan: The Hope of a Global Citizens Movement] Orion Kriegman. 2006. Boston:[[Tellus Institute]]</ref>

====Global pandemic====
{{Main|Pandemic}}
A less predictable scenario is a global pandemic. It has been hypothesised that an extremely virulent pathogen might not [[evolution|evolve]].<ref name="Frank SA 1996 37–78">{{cite journal |author=Frank SA |title=Models of parasite virulence |journal=Q Rev Biol |volume=71 |issue=1 |pages=37–78 |year=1996 |month=March |pmid=8919665 |doi=10.1086/419267}}</ref> This is because a pathogen that quickly kills its hosts might not have enough time to spread to new ones, while one that kills its hosts more slowly or not at all will allow carriers more time to spread the infection, and thus likely out-compete a more lethal species or strain.<ref>{{cite journal |author=Brown NF, Wickham ME, Coombes BK, Finlay BB |title=Crossing the Line: Selection and Evolution of Virulence Traits |journal=[[PLoS Pathogens]] |volume=2 |issue=5 |pages=e42 |year=2006 |month=May |pmid=16733541 |pmc=1464392 |doi=10.1371/journal.ppat.0020042}}</ref> This simple model predicts that if [[virulence]] and transmission are not linked in any way, pathogens will evolve towards low virulence and rapid transmission. However, this assumption is not always valid and in more complex models, where the level of virulence and the rate of transmission are related, high levels of virulence can evolve.<ref>{{cite journal |author=Ebert D, Bull JJ |title=Challenging the trade-off model for the evolution of virulence: is virulence management feasible? |journal=Trends Microbiol. |volume=11 |issue=1 |pages=15–20 |year=2003 |month=January |pmid=12526850 |doi=10.1016/S0966-842X(02)00003-3}}</ref> The level of virulence that is possible is instead limited by the existence of complex populations of hosts, with different susceptibilities to infection, or by some hosts being geographically isolated.<ref name="Frank SA 1996 37–78"/> The size of the host population and competition between different strains of pathogens can also alter virulence.<ref>{{cite journal |author=André JB, Hochberg ME |title=Virulence evolution in emerging infectious diseases |journal=Evolution |volume=59 |issue=7 |pages=1406–12 |year=2005 |month=July |pmid=16153027}}</ref> Interestingly, a pathogen that only infects humans as a secondary host and usually infects another species (a [[zoonosis]]) may have little constraint on its virulence in people, since infection here is an accidental event and its evolution is driven by events in another species.<ref>{{cite journal |author=Gandon S |title=Evolution of multihost parasites |journal=Evolution |volume=58 |issue=3 |pages=455–69 |year=2004 |month=March |pmid=15119430}}</ref> There are numerous historical examples of pandemics<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.postapocalypticsurvival.com/apocalypse-causing-diseases/ |title=Near Apocalypse Causing Diseases, a Historical Look:|publisher=postapocalypticsurvival.com |date= |accessdate=2012-05-05}}</ref> that have had a devastating effect on a large number of people, which makes the possibility of global pandemic a realistic threat to human civilization.

====Ecological disaster====
{{Main|Environmental disaster}}

An ecological disaster, such as world crop failure and collapse of [[ecosystem services]], could be induced by the present trends of [[overpopulation]], [[economic development]],<ref name="Chiarelli1998">{{Cite journal
| last = Chiarelli | first = B.
| year = 1998
| title = Overpopulation and the Threat of Ecological Disaster: the Need for Global Bioethics
| journal = Mankind Quarterly
| volume = 39
| issue = 2
| pages = 225–230
}}</ref> and non-[[sustainable agriculture]]. Most of these scenarios involve one or more of the following: [[Holocene extinction event]], [[Water crisis|scarcity of water]] that could lead to approximately one half of the Earth's population being without safe drinking water, [[pollinator decline]], [[overfishing]], massive [[deforestation]], [[desertification]], [[climate change]], or massive [[water pollution]] episodes. A very recent threat in this direction is [[colony collapse disorder]],<ref>{{cite news| url=http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8306970/Einstein-was-right-honey-bee-collapse-threatens-global-food-security.html | location=London | work=[[The Daily Telegraph]] | first=Ambrose | last=Evans-Pritchard | title=Einstein was right - honey bee collapse threatens global food security | date=6 February 2011}}</ref> a phenomenon that might foreshadow the imminent extinction<ref name="Lovgren">Lovgren, Stefan. "[http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/070223-bees.html Mystery Bee Disappearances Sweeping U.S.]" ''National Geographic News''. URL accessed March 10, 2007.</ref> of the [[Western honeybee]]. As the bee plays a vital role in pollination, its extinction would severely disrupt the food chain.

====World population and agricultural crisis====
{{Main|Malthusian catastrophe|Overpopulation}}
The 20th century saw a rapid increase in [[human population]] due to [[History of medicine#Modern medicine|medical developments]] and massive increase in agricultural productivity<ref>{{cite web|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/4994590.stm |title=The end of India's green revolution? |publisher=BBC News |date=2006-05-29 |accessdate=2012-01-31}}</ref> made by the [[Green Revolution]].<ref>{{cite web|author=Posted April 8th, 2000 by admin |url=http://www.foodfirst.org/media/opeds/2000/4-greenrev.html |title=Food First/Institute for Food and Development Policy |publisher=Foodfirst.org |date=2000-04-08 |accessdate=2012-01-31}}</ref> Between 1950 and 1984, as the Green Revolution transformed agriculture around the globe, world grain production increased by 250%. The Green Revolution in agriculture helped food production to keep pace with worldwide [[population growth]] or actually enabled population growth. The energy for the Green Revolution was provided by fossil fuels in the form of fertilizers (natural gas), pesticides (oil), and [[hydrocarbon]] fueled [[irrigation]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://web.archive.org/web/20090527161626/http://wolf.readinglitho.co.uk/mainpages/agriculture.html |title=How peak oil could lead to starvation |publisher=Web.archive.org |date=2009-05-27 |accessdate=2012-01-31}}</ref> David Pimentel, professor of ecology and agriculture at [[Cornell University]], and Mario Giampietro, senior researcher at the National Research Institute on Food and Nutrition (INRAN), place in their study ''Food, Land, Population and the U.S. Economy'' the maximum U.S. population for a [[sustainability|sustainable economy]] at 200 million. To achieve a sustainable economy and avert disaster, the United States must reduce its population by at least one-third, and world population will have to be reduced by two-thirds, says the study.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.energybulletin.net/node/281 |title=Eating Fossil Fuels |publisher=EnergyBulletin.net |date=2003-10-02 |accessdate=2012-01-31}}</ref>

The authors of this study believe that the mentioned agricultural crisis will only begin to impact us after 2020, and will not become critical until 2050. Geologist [[Dale Allen Pfeiffer]] claims that coming decades could see spiraling food prices without relief and massive starvation on a global level such as never experienced before.<ref>{{cite web|author=The Oil Drum: Europe |url=http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2225 |title=Agriculture Meets Peak Oil |publisher=Europe.theoildrum.com |date= |accessdate=2012-01-31}}</ref><ref>http://www.uncommonthought.com/mtblog/archives/2007/11/08/drawing-momentu.php</ref>

Wheat is humanity's 3rd most produced cereal. Extant fungal infections such as Ug99<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.ars.usda.gov/Main/docs.htm?docid=14649 |title=Cereal Disease Laboratory : Ug99 an emerging virulent stem rust race |publisher=Ars.usda.gov |date= |accessdate=2012-01-31}}</ref> (a kind of [[stem rust]]) can cause 100% crop losses in most modern varieties. Little or no treatment is possible and infection spreads on the wind. Should the world's large grain producing areas become infected then there would be a crisis in wheat availability leading to price spikes and shortages in other food products.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.wheatrust.cornell.edu/about/ |title=Durable Rust Resistance in Wheat |publisher=Wheatrust.cornell.edu |date= |accessdate=2012-01-31}}</ref>

===Earth===

====Natural climate change====
Climate change can refer to any long-term significant change in the patterns of average weather of a specific region (or, more relevantly to contemporary socio-political concerns, of the Earth as a whole) over an appropriately significant period of time, caused by natural forcing. In the past these have included ice ages and periods warmer than today.

=====Ice age=====
{{Main|Ice age}}
In the history of the Earth, 12 known ice ages have occurred. More ice ages will be possible at an interval of 40,000–100,000 years although engineers working for [[Posiva]], a Finnish company currently constructing the [[Onkalo spent nuclear fuel repository]],<ref>{{cite web|url=http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/nuclear/finlands-nuclear-waste-solution/0 |title=Finland's Nuclear Waste Solution - IEEE Spectrum |publisher=Spectrum.ieee.org |date= |accessdate=2012-01-31}}</ref> has planned the facility to withstand an Ice Age starting as soon as 20,000 years. An Ice Age would have a serious impact on civilization because vast areas of land (mainly in North America, Europe, and Asia) could become uninhabitable. It would still be possible to live in the tropical regions, but with possible loss of humidity/water. Currently, the world is existing in an [[Interglacial|interglacial period]] within a much older glacial event. The last glacial expansion ended about 10,000 years ago, and all civilizations evolved later.

====Volcanism====
A geological event such as massive [[flood basalt]], volcanism, or the eruption of a supervolcano<ref name="supervolcano">{{cite journal | author=Kate Ravilious | title=What a way to go | url=http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2005/apr/14/research.science2 | journal=The Guardian | date=2005-04-14 }}</ref> leading to the so called Volcanic Winter (Similar to a [[Nuclear Winter]]). One such event, the [[Toba eruption|Toba Eruption]],<ref name="Tobaeruption">{{cite journal | author=2012 Admin | title=Toba Supervolcano | url=http://www.2012finalfantasy.com/2008/toba-supervolcano.php | journal=2012 Final Fantasy | date=2008-02-04 }}</ref> occurred in Indonesia about 71,500 years ago. According to the [[Toba catastrophe theory]],<ref name="Tobacatastrophetheory">{{cite journal | author=Science Reference | title=Toba Catastrophe Theory | url=http://www.sciencedaily.com/articles/t/toba_catastrophe_theory.htm | journal=Science Daily }}</ref> the event may have reduced human populations to only a few tens of thousands of individuals. [[Yellowstone Caldera]] is another such supervolcano, having undergone 142 or more [[caldera]]-forming eruptions in the past 17 million years.<ref>{{cite book|last=Breining|first=Greg|title=Super Volcano: The Ticking Time Bomb Beneath Yellowstone National Park|publisher=Voyageur Press|year=2007|isbn=978-0-7603-2925-2|page=256}}</ref> Massive volcano eruption(s) will produce extraordinary intake of volcanic dust, toxic and greenhouse gases into the atmosphere with serious effects on global climate (towards extreme global cooling ([[nuclear winter]] when in short term and ice age when in long term) or [[global warming]] (if greenhouse gases prevail)).

When the supervolcano at [[Yellowstone National Park|Yellowstone]] last erupted 640,000 years ago, the [[magma]] and ash ejected from the [[Yellowstone Caldera|caldera]] covered most of the United States west of the [[Mississippi river]] and part of northeastern Mexico.<ref>{{cite book|last=Breining|first=Greg|title=Super Volcano: The Ticking Time Bomb Beneath Yellowstone National Park|publisher=Voyageur Press|location=St. Paul, MN.|year=2007|chapter=Distant Death|isbn=978-0-7603-2925-2|page=256 pg}}</ref> Another such eruption could threaten civilization. Such an eruption could also release large amounts of gases that could alter the balance of the planet's carbon dioxide and cause a [[runaway greenhouse effect]]{{Dubious|date=March 2011}}{{Citation needed|date=March 2011}}, or enough pyroclastic debris and other material might be thrown into the atmosphere to partially block out the sun and cause a [[volcanic winter]], as happened in 1816 following the eruption of [[Mount Tambora]], the so-called [[Year Without a Summer]]. Such an eruption might cause the immediate deaths of millions of people several hundred miles from the eruption, and perhaps billions of deaths<ref name="Supervolcano">{{cite book|last=Breining|first=Greg|title=Super Volcano: The Ticking Time Bomb Beneath Yellowstone National Park|publisher=Voyageur Press|location=St. Paul, MN.|year=2007|chapter=The Next Big Blast|isbn=978-0-7603-2925-2|page=256 pg}}</ref> worldwide, due to the failure of the [[monsoon]]{{Citation needed|date=July 2008}}, resulting in major crop failures causing starvation on a massive scale.<ref name="Supervolcano" /> Supervolcanoes are more likely threats than many others,{{Citation needed|date=November 2010}} as a [[Toba catastrophe theory|prehistoric Indonesian supervolcano eruption]] may have reduced the human population to only a few thousand individuals,<ref>{{cite web |url=http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2009/08/yellowstone/achenbach-text |title=Under Yellowstone|publisher=nationalgeographic.com|date=August 2009|quote=The ensuing volcanic winter may have contributed to a period of global cooling that reduced the entire human population to a few thousand individuals—a close shave for the human race.}}</ref> while no catastrophic bolide impact, for example, has occurred since long before modern humans evolved.

====Megatsunami====
{{Main|Megatsunami}}
Another possibility is a megatsunami. A megatsunami could, for example, destroy the entire East Coast of the United States. The coastal areas of the entire world could also be flooded in case of the collapse of the [[West Antarctic Ice Sheet]].<ref name="wais">[http://igloo.gsfc.nasa.gov/wais/ US West Antarctic Ice Sheet initiative]</ref> While none of these scenarios are likely to destroy humanity completely, they could regionally threaten civilization. There have been two recent high-fatality tsunamis—after the [[2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami|2011 Tōhoku earthquake]] and the [[2004 Indian Ocean earthquake]], although they were not large enough to be considered megatsunamis. A megatsunami could have astronomical origins as well, such as an asteroid impact in an ocean.

===Space===

====Meteorite impact====
{{Main|Impact event}}
Earth has collided with several asteroids in recent geological history. The [[Chicxulub crater|Chicxulub asteroid]], for example, is theorized to have caused the extinction of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago at the [[Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event|end of the Cretaceous]]. If such an object struck Earth it could have a serious impact on civilization. It is even possible that humanity would be completely destroyed; for this to occur the asteroid would need to be at least {{convert|1|km|mi|abbr=on}} in diameter, but probably between 3 and 10 km (2–6 miles).<ref name="meteor">Bostrom 2002, section 4.10</ref> Asteroids with a 1 km diameter have impacted the Earth on average once every 500,000 years.<ref name="meteor" /> Larger asteroids are less common. Small [[Near-Earth asteroid]]s are regularly observed.

In 1.4 million years, the star [[Gliese 710]] is expected to cause an increase in the number of meteoroids in the vicinity of Earth by passing within 1.1 [[light year]]s of the Sun and [[perturbation (astronomy)|perturbing]] the [[Oort cloud]]. Dynamic models by García-Sánchez predict a 5% increase in the rate of impact.<ref name="García-Sánchez1999">{{cite journal
| author=García-Sánchez, Joan
| title=Stellar Encounters with the Oort Cloud Based on HIPPARCOS Data
| journal=The Astronomical Journal | volume=117 | issue=2
| pages=1042–1055 | month=February | year=1999
| doi=10.1086/300723 | bibcode=1999AJ....117.1042G
| display-authors=1
| last2=Preston
| first2=Robert A.
| last3=Jones
| first3=Dayton L.
| last4=Weissman
| first4=Paul R.
| last5=Lestrade
| first5=Jean-François
| last6=Latham
| first6=David W.
| last7=Stefanik
| first7=Robert P. }}</ref>

====Alien invasion====
{{Main|Alien invasion}}
Extraterrestrial life could invade Earth<ref name="aliens">[http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1511/is_10_21/ai_65368918 Twenty ways the world could end suddenly], Discover Magazine</ref> either to exterminate and supplant human life, enslave it under a colonial system, harvest humans for food, steal the planet's resources, or destroy the planet altogether.

Although evidence of alien life has never been documented, scientists such as [[Carl Sagan]] have postulated that the existence of extraterrestrial life is very likely. In 1969, the "[[Extra-Terrestrial Exposure Law]]" was added to the Code of Federal Regulations (Title 14, Section 1211) in response to the possibility of biological contamination resulting from the [[Apollo program|U.S. Apollo Space Program]]. It was removed in 1991.<ref>[http://www.snopes.com/legal/et.htm Urban Legends Reference Pages: Legal Affairs (E.T. Make Bail)]</ref> Scientists consider such a scenario technically possible, but unlikely.<ref name="aliensunlikely">Bostrom 2002, section 7.2</ref>

====Distant cosmic future====
There are a number of [[cosmology|cosmological]] theories as to the universe's [[ultimate fate of the universe|ultimate fate]] that exclude the indefinite continuation of life. Most involve time periods and distant futures much greater than the 13.8-billion-year [[age of the universe]]. A long-established and widely accepted theory is the eventual [[heat death of the universe]].

Calculations indicate that the [[Andromeda Galaxy]] is on a collision course with the [[Milky Way]]. Andromeda is approaching at an average speed of about {{convert|110|km|mi}} per second and thus impact is predicted in about four billion years.<ref name="nature.2012.10765">{{cite web
|url=http://www.nature.com/news/andromeda-on-collision-course-with-the-milky-way-1.10765
|title=Andromeda on collision course with the Milky Way
|publisher=Nature
|date=2012-05-31
|accessdate=2012-05-31}}
</ref>
An actual collision with the Earth is unlikely, but this merging could eject the solar system in a more eccentric orbit.{{Citation needed|date=April 2011}}

{{anchor|Red-giant-tide}}The theory of [[stellar evolution]] predicts that our sun will exhaust its [[Sun#Core|hydrogen core]] and become a [[red giant]] in about five billion years,<ref name=OSPF>{{cite web|url=http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-bib_query?bibcode=1993ApJ...418..457S |title=Our Sun. III. Present and Future |publisher=Adsabs.harvard.edu |date= |accessdate=2012-01-31}}</ref><ref name=DFSER>[http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1365-2966.2008.13022.x Distant future of the Sun and Earth revisited]</ref><ref name="MU42">{{cite book
|author= Serge Brunier
|title= Majestic Universe: Views from Here to Infinity
|publisher= Cambridge University Press
|location=
|year= 1999
|isbn= 0-521-66307-5
|oclc=
|doi=
|page= 42
}}</ref> becoming thousands of times more luminous and losing roughly 30% of its current mass.<ref>[http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/astro/redgia.html Red Giants]</ref> Ignoring tidal effects, the Earth would then orbit {{convert|1.7|AU|km| abbr=on}} from the Sun at its maximum radius. This would allow the Earth to escape being enveloped by the Sun's now expanded and thin outer atmosphere, though most life, if not all, would perish due to the Sun's proximity.<ref name=OSPF/> However, a more recent study suggests that the Earth's orbit will decay due to the effects of [[tidal drag]], causing it to enter the Sun's expanded atmosphere and be destroyed<ref name=DFSER/><ref>[http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/solarsystem/death_of_earth_000224.html SPACE.com - Freeze, Fry or Dry: How Long Has the Earth Got?]</ref><ref>[http://www.astronomytoday.com/astronomy/sun.html Sun, the solar system's only star]</ref> in 7.6 billion years.<ref>Denis Overbye. [http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/11/science/space/11earth.html "Kissing the Earth Goodbye in About 7.59 Billion Years"], ''New York Times'', March 11, 2008.</ref> Before being swallowed by the Sun, the Earth's oceans would evaporate, and the Earth would finally be destroyed by [[tidal forces]]. However, this fate is not inevitable—it appears possible to move the Earth to a more distant orbit, using repeated close encounters with asteroids.<ref>{{cite news
|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/1154784.stm
|title=Planet Earth on the move
|author=Dr David Whitehouse
|publisher=BBC news
|year=2001}}</ref>

Before this happens, Earth's [[biosphere]] will have long been destroyed by the Sun's steady increase in brightness as its hydrogen supply dwindles and its core contracts, even before the transition to a Red Giant. After just over 1 billion years, the extra solar energy input will cause Earth's oceans to evaporate and the hydrogen from the water to be lost permanently to space, with total loss of water by 3 billion years.<ref>[http://www.harmsy.freeuk.com/sun.html Sun is a powerhouse—Death in our solar system]</ref> Earth's atmosphere and [[lithosphere]] will become like that of Venus. Over another billion years, most of the atmosphere will become lost to space as well;<ref name=pogge>{{cite web | last = Pogge | first = Richard W. | title = The Once and Future Sun | work = New Vistas in Astronomy | date = 1997-06-13 | url = http://www.astronomy.ohio-state.edu/~pogge/Lectures/vistas97.html
| accessdate = 2012-06-01 }}</ref> ultimately leaving Earth as a desiccated, dead planet with a surface of molten rock.

====Other cosmic threats====
A number of other scenarios have been suggested. Massive objects, e.g., a star, large planet or [[black hole]], could be catastrophic if a close encounter occurred in the solar system. Gravity from the wandering objects might disrupt orbits and/or fling bodies into other objects, thus resulting in meteorite impacts or climate change. Also, heat from the wandering objects might cause extinctions; tidal forces could cause erosion along our coastlines. Another threat might come from [[Gamma ray bursts#Rates and impacts on life|gamma ray bursts]].<ref name="gammaray">[http://www.nasa.gov/vision/universe/starsgalaxies/gammaray_extinction.html Explosions in Space May Have Initiated Ancient Extinction on Earth], [[NASA]].</ref> Both are very unlikely.<ref name="unlikely" /> One especially deadly hypothesized source is a [[hypernova]], produced when a [[hypergiant]] star explodes and then collapses, sending vast amounts of radiation sweeping across hundreds of [[lightyears]]. Hypernovas have never been observed; however, a hypernova may have been the cause of the [[Ordovician–Silurian extinction events]]. The nearest hypergiant is [[Eta Carinae]], approximately 8,000 light-years distant.<ref>{{cite web | url=http://www.nasa.gov/vision/universe/starsgalaxies/gammaray_extinction.html | title=Explosions in Space May Have Initiated Ancient Extinction on Earth | date=2005-04-06 | publisher=[[NASA]] | author=Wanjek, Christopher}}</ref>
The hazards from various astrophysical radiation sources were reviewed in 2011.<ref name="Ioniz">{{cite journal
| author=Melott, A.L. and Thomas, B.C.
| title= Astrophysical Ionizing Radiation and the Earth: A Brief Review and Census of Intermittent Intense Sources
| journal= Astrobiology | volume=11
| pages= 343–361 | year=2011 }}</ref>

In April 2008, it was announced that two simulations of long-term planetary movement, one at [[Paris Observatory]] and the other at [[University of California, Santa Cruz]] indicate a 1% chance that [[Mercury (planet)|Mercury]]'s orbit could be made unstable by Jupiter's gravitational pull sometime during the lifespan of the sun. Were this to happen, the simulations suggest a collision with Earth could be one of four possible outcomes (the others being Mercury colliding with the Sun, colliding with Venus, or being ejected from the solar system altogether). If Mercury were to collide with the Earth, all life on earth would be obliterated and the impact might displace enough matter into orbit to form another moon. Note that an asteroid just 15 km wide is said to have caused the extinction of the dinosaurs; Mercury is some 5,000 km in diameter.<ref>Ken Croswell, [http://www.skyandtelescope.com/news/home/18103199.html Will Mercury Hit Earth Someday?], Skyandtelescope.com April 24, 2008, accessed April 26, 2008</ref>

* [[Dark nebula]] - The solar system passing through a [[cosmic dust]] cloud, leading to a severe global climate change.<ref name="Galacticdust">{{cite journal | author=Fraser Cain| title=Local Galactic Dust is on the Rise | url=http://www.universetoday.com/2003/08/04/local-galactic-dust-is-on-the-rise/ | journal=Universe Today | date=2003-08-04 }}</ref>
* A drastic and unusual decrease or increase in Sun's power output; a solar superstorm leading to partial or complete electrical or technological death of human civilization. (See [[solar flare]].)
* [[Near-Earth supernova]]

===Other scenarios===
* [[Implications of peak oil|Peak oil]]: Fossil fuels attain a level of scarcity before an economically viable replacement is devised, leading firstly to economic strain, followed by the collapse of modern agriculture, then to mass starvation.<ref>http://www.businessinsider.com/leaked-german-military-report-warns-of-apocalyptic-peak-oil-scenarios-2010-9</ref><ref>http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdf</ref><ref>http://watd.wuthering-heights.co.uk/mainpages/agriculture.html</ref>
* [[Antibiotic resistance]]: [[Natural selection]] would create super bacteria that are resistant to antibiotics, devastating the world population and causing a global collapse of civilization.<ref>[http://www.pasteur.fr/actu/presse/press/07pesteTIGR_E.htm Researchers sound the alarm: the multidrug resistance of the plague bacillus could spread]</ref>{{Citation needed|reason=global collapse of civilization|date=July 2010}}
* [[Shutdown of thermohaline circulation|Gulf Stream shutdown]]: There is some speculation that global warming could, via a shutdown or slowdown of the thermohaline circulation, trigger localized cooling in the North Atlantic and lead to cooling in that region. This would affect in particular areas like Ireland, the Nordic countries, and Britain that are warmed by the [[North Atlantic drift]].<ref>[http://www.gulfstreamshutdown.com/ Gulf Stream shutdown]</ref><ref>[http://news.mongabay.com/2005/1207-uiuc.html 45% chance Gulf Stream current will collapse by 2100 finds research]</ref>
* [[Mutual assured destruction]]: A full scale nuclear war could kill billions, and the potential for subsequent [[nuclear winter]] would effectively crush any form of civilization.
* Famine: As of late 2007, increased farming for use in [[biofuel]]s, along with world [[oil prices]] spiking to more than $140 per barrel,<ref>[http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0118/p08s01-comv.html The global grain bubble]</ref> had pushed up the price of grain used to feed poultry and dairy cows and other cattle, causing higher prices of wheat (up 58%), soybean (up 32%), and maize (up 11%) over the year.<ref>''New York Times'' (2007 September) [http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/06/business/06tyson.html?n=Top/Reference/Times%20Topics/Subjects/W/Wheat At Tyson and Kraft, Grain Costs Limit Profit]</ref><ref>[http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=213343 Forget oil, the new global crisis is food]</ref> [[2007–2008 world food price crisis|Food riot]]s have recently taken place in many countries across the world.<ref>{{cite news|last=Watts|first=Jonathan|title=Riots and hunger feared as demand for grain sends food costs soaring|url=http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/dec/04/china.business|newspaper=[[The Guardian]]|date=4 December 2007|location=London}}</ref><ref>[http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article3500975.ece Already we have riots, hoarding, panic: the sign of things to come?]</ref><ref>{{cite news|last=Borger|first=Julian|title=Feed the world? We are fighting a losing battle, UN admits|url=http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/feb/26/food.unitednations|newspaper=The Guardian|date=26 February 2008|location=London}}</ref> An epidemic of stem rust on wheat caused by race [[Ug99]] is currently spreading across Africa and into Asia and is causing major concern. Scientists say millions of people face starvation.<ref>[http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2007/apr/22/food.foodanddrink Millions face famine as crop disease rages]</ref><ref name = NewSci>{{cite journal | url = http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/mg19425983.700-billions-at-risk-from-wheat-superblight.html
|journal = New Scientist Magazine |title=Billions at risk from wheat super-blight |date=2007-04-03
|accessdate = 2007-04-19 |issue= 2598 |pages = 6–7}}</ref><ref>Leonard, K.J. ''[http://www.ars.usda.gov/Main/docs.htm?docid=10755 Black stem rust biology and threat to wheat growers]'', USDA ARS</ref>
* Experimental accident: Investigations in nuclear and high energy physics could conceivably create unusual conditions with catastrophic consequences. For example, scientists worried that the [[Trinity (nuclear test)#Test predictions|first nuclear test]] might ignite the atmosphere. More recently, others [[Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider#Critics of high energy experiments|worried that the RHIC]]<ref>[http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg16322014.700-a-black-hole-ate-my-planet.html New Scientist, 28 August 1999: "A Black Hole Ate My Planet"]</ref> or the [[Safety of particle collisions at the Large Hadron Collider|Large Hadron Collider]] might start a chain-reaction global disaster involving black holes or false vacuum states. These particular concerns have been refuted,<ref>{{cite journal |authorlink=Emil Konopinski |last=Konopinski |first=E. J |first2=C. |last2=Marvin |first3=Edward |last3=Teller |authorlink3=Edward Teller |title=Ignition of the Atmosphere with Nuclear Bombs | institution=Los Alamos National Laboratory |url=http://www.fas.org/sgp/othergov/doe/lanl/docs1/00329010.pdf |format=PDF |date=1946, declassified February 1973 |accessdate=23 November 2008 |issue=LA–602 |postscript={{inconsistent citations}}}}</ref><ref>http://www.aps.org/units/dpf/governance/reports/upload/lhc_saftey_statement.pdf</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://public.web.cern.ch/Public/en/LHC/Safety-en.html|title=Safety at the LHC}}</ref><ref>J. Blaizot et al., "Study of Potentially Dangerous Events During Heavy-Ion Collisions at the LHC", [http://cdsweb.cern.ch/search?sysno=002372601cer CERN library record] [http://doc.cern.ch/yellowrep/2003/2003-001/p1.pdf CERN Yellow Reports Server (PDF)]</ref> but the general concern remains.
* [[Hypercane]]: A theoretical hurricane the size of a continent. The theory estimates that ocean temperatures would have to reach almost 50°C before storms of this size could occur.
* [[Geomagnetic reversal]]: The magnetic poles of the Earth shifted many times in geologic history. The duration of such a shift is still debated. Theories exist that say that during that time, the magnetic field around the Earth would be weakened or nonexistent, threatening electrical civilization or even several species by allowing radiation from the sun, especially solar flares or cosmic background radiation to reach the surface.
* [[Verneshot]]: A hypothetical volcanic eruption caused by the buildup of gas deep underneath a [[craton]]. Such an event may be forceful enough to launch an extreme amount of material from the [[crust (geology)|crust]] and [[mantle (geology)|mantle]] into a [[sub-orbital]] trajectory. Named after [[Jules Verne]].

==Historical fictional scenarios==
[[Sir Isaac Newton]] (1642–1727) studied old texts and surmised that the end of the world would happen no earlier than 2060, although he was reluctant to put an exact date on it.<ref>[http://www.isaac-newton.org/newton_2060.htm "Isaac Newton, the Apocalypse and 2060 A.D."], by Stephen D. Snobelen, [[University of King's College]], Halifax</ref>

The [[2012 doomsday prediction|belief]] that the [[Mayan civilization]]'s [[Mayan calendar|Long Count calendar]] ended abruptly on December 21, 2012 was a misconception due to the Mayan practice of using only five places in Long Count Calendar inscriptions. On some monuments the Mayan calculated dates far into the past and future but there is no end of the world date. There was a [[Piktun]] ending (a cycle of 13,144,000 day Bak'tuns) on December 21, 2012. A Piktun marks the end of a 1,872,000 day or approximately 5125 year period and is a significant event in the Mayan calendar. However, there is no historical or scientific evidence that the Mayans believed it would be a doomsday. Some believe it was just the beginning of another Piktun.<ref>[http://skeptoid.com/episodes/4093 "Apocalypse 2012 - Tall tales that the End of Days is coming in 2012."] by Brian Dunning</ref>

The [[cataclysmic pole shift hypothesis]] was formulated in 1872. Revisited repeatedly in the second half of the 20th century, it proposes that the axis of the Earth with respect to the crust could change extremely rapidly, causing massive earthquakes, tsunamis, and damaging local climate changes. The hypothesis is contradicted by the mainstream scientific interpretation of geological data, which indicates that [[true polar wander]] does occur, but very slowly over millions of years. Sometimes this hypothesis is confused with the accepted theory of [[geomagnetic reversal]] in which the magnetic poles reverse, but which has no influence on the axial poles or the rotation of the solid earth.

==Precautions and prevention==
[[Planetary management]] and respecting [[planetary boundaries]] have been proposed as approaches to preventing ecological catastrophes. Within the scope of these approaches, the field of [[geoengineering]] encompasses the deliberate large-scale engineering and manipulation of the planetary environment to combat or counteract anthropogenic changes in atmospheric chemistry. [[Space colonization]] is a [[Space and survival|proposed alternative]] to improve the odds of surviving an extinction scenario.<ref name=physorg20100809>{{citation
| title=Mankind must abandon earth or face extinction: Hawking
| date=August 9, 2010 | work=physorg.com
| url=http://www.physorg.com/news200591777.html
| accessdate=2012-01-23 }}</ref> Solutions of this scope may require [[megascale engineering]].

Some precautions that people are already taking for a cataclysmic event include:

* Some [[survivalist]]s have stocked [[Retreat (survivalism)|survival retreats]] with multiple year food supplies.

'''Organizations formed to study, prevent or mitigate existential risks'''
* Cambridge-based [[Centre for the Study of Existential Risk]] - scientific study of the "four great" technological risks: artificial intelligence, biotechnology, global warming and warfare.
* [[Center for Responsible Nanotechnology]] — ''for safe, efficient nanotechnology.''
* [[Machine Intelligence Research Institute]] — ''for developing [[Friendly AI]]''
* [[Foresight Institute]] — ''for safe nanotechnology and a society prepared to handle the consequences of such''
* [[Center for Genetics and Society]] — ''for the relinquishment of genetic technologies which may irrevocably change the definition of "human"''
* The [[Svalbard Global Seed Vault]] is a vault buried 400 feet inside a mountain in the [[Arctic]] with over ten tons of seeds from all over the world. 100 million seeds from more than 100 countries were placed inside as a precaution to preserve all the world’s crops. A prepared box of rice originating from 104 countries was the first to be deposited in the vault, where it will be kept at minus 18C (minus 0.4F). Thousands more plant species will be added as organizers attempt to get specimens of every agricultural plant in the world. [[Cary Fowler]], executive director of the [[Global Crop Diversity Trust]] said that by preserving as many varieties as possible, the options open to farmers, scientists and governments were maximized. “The opening of the seed vault marks a historic turning point in safeguarding the world’s crop diversity,” he said. Even if the [[permafrost]] starts to melt, the seeds will be safe inside the vault for up to 200 years. Some of the seeds will even be viable for a millennium or more, including barley, which can last 2,000 years, wheat 1,700 years, and [[sorghum]] almost 20,000 years.<ref>{{cite news | url=http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article3441435.ece | title=Doomsday vault for world’s seeds is opened under Arctic mountainl | date=2008-02-27 | author=Lewis Smith| publisher=The Times Online | location=London}}</ref>
* [[Future of Humanity Institute]]
* The [[Lifeboat Foundation]], "a nonprofit nongovernmental organization dedicated to encouraging scientific advancements while helping humanity survive existential risks and possible misuse of increasingly powerful technologies, including [[genetic engineering]], [[nanotechnology]], and [[robotics]]/[[Artificial intelligence|AI]], as we move towards [[the Singularity]]."<ref>{{cite web|title=About the Lifeboat Foundation|url=http://lifeboat.com/ex/about|publisher=The Lifeboat Founation|accessdate=26 April 2013}}</ref>

===Quotations===
: ''Our approach to existential risks cannot be one of trial-and-error. There is no opportunity to learn from errors. The reactive approach — see what happens, limit damages, and learn from experience — is unworkable. Rather, we must take a proactive approach. This requires foresight to anticipate new types of threats and a willingness to take decisive preventive action and to bear the costs (moral and economic) of such actions.''<ref name="Bostrom 2002, section 2"/>
:: —[[Nick Bostrom]]

==See also==
{{Portal|Extinction}}
* [[Anarcho-primitivism]]
* [[Apocalyptic and post-apocalyptic fiction]]
* [[Doomsday argument]]
* [[Doomsday Clock]]
* [[Eschatology]]
* [[Extinction event]]
* [[New tribalism]]
* [[Outside Context Problem]]
* [[Snowball Earth]]
* [[Societal collapse]]
* [[Survivalism]]
* [[Timeline of the far future]]
* [[Ultimate fate of the universe]]
* [[10 Ways to End the World]]

==Notes==
{{Reflist|30em}}

==References==
* {{cite journal| authorlink=Nick Bostrom| first=Nick| last=Bostrom| year=2002| url=http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html| title=Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards| journal=[[Journal of Evolution and Technology]]| volume=9| issue=1| month=March}}
* Corey S. Powell (2000). [http://discovermagazine.com/2000/oct/featworld "Twenty ways the world could end suddenly"], ''[[Discover Magazine]]''
* [[Martin Rees]] (2004). ''[[Our Final Hour|OUR FINAL HOUR: A Scientist's warning: How Terror, Error, and Environmental Disaster Threaten Humankind's Future in This Century — On Earth and Beyond]]''. ISBN 0-465-06863-4
* [[Jean-Francois Rischard]] (2003). [http://www.questia.com/library/book/ ''High Noon 20 Global Problems, 20 Years to Solve Them'']. ISBN 0-465-07010-8
* [[Edward O. Wilson]] (2003). ''The Future of Life''. ISBN 0-679-76811-4

==Further reading==
* [[Derrick Jensen]] (2006) ''[[Endgame (Derrick Jensen books)|Endgame]]''. ISBN 1-58322-730-X
* [[Jared Diamond]] (2005). ''[[Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed]]''. ISBN 0-670-03337-5
* Joel Garreau, ''Radical Evolution'', 2005
* John Leslie (1996). ''The End of the World''. ISBN 0-415-14043-9
* Martin Rees, ''[[Our Final Hour]]'' (UK title: "Our Final Century"), 2003, ISBN 0-465-06862-6
* Alexei Turchin, [http://www.scribd.com/doc/6250354/ Structure of the global catastrophe. Risks of human extinction in the XXI century], 2010, ISBN 978-1-4457-5658-5

==External links==
* [http://abcnews.go.com/2020/story?id=2319986 Last Days On Earth] (TV documentary) [[ABC News]] 2-hour Special Edition of 20/20 on 7 real end-of-the-world scenarios (Wed. Aug 30 2006)
* [http://www.guardian.co.uk/life/feature/story/0,13026,1458536,00.html "What a way to go"] from ''[[The Guardian]]''. Ten scientists name the biggest danger to Earth and assesses the chances of it happening. April 14, 2005.
* [http://www.frankfuredi.com/articles/misanthropy-20060418.shtml "Confronting the New Misanthropy"], by [[Frank Furedi]] in ''[[Spiked (magazine)|Spiked]]'', April 18, 2006
* [http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/167 Ted.com (video) - Stephen Petranek: 10 ways the world could end]
*[http://www.armageddononline.org Armageddon Online], A collection of doomsday scenarios and daily news
*[http://www.doomsdayguide.org/ Doomsday Guide], a directory devoted to end times theories
*[http://www.livescience.com/technology/destroy_earth_mp.html Top 10 Ways to Destroy Earth]
*[http://www.exitmundi.nl/exitmundi.htm Several potential world ending scenarios]
*{{cite web | url=http://www.scifi.com/doomsday/scenarios/volcano/ | title=Countdown to Doomsday with Today Show Host Matt Lauer | year=2006 | publisher=[[SciFi.com]] (Syfy)}}
* [http://www.existential-risk.org] - A website about existential risk by [[Nick Bostrom]].
* [http://singularity.org/files/CognitiveBiases.pdf Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgment of global risks] - A paper by [[Eliezer Yudkowsky]] discussing how various observed [[cognitive bias]]es hamper our judgement of existential risk.
* [http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy_pr.html Why the future doesn't need us], ''[[Wired.com]]'', April 2000 - [[Bill Joy]]'s influential call to relinquish dangerous technologies.
* [http://medicine.journalfeeds.com/psychiatry/j-pers-soc-psychol/being-present-in-the-face-of-existential-threat-the-role-of-trait-mindfulness-in-reducing-defensive-responses-to-mortality-salience/20100728/ Being present in the face of existential threat: The role of trait mindfulness in reducing defensive responses to mortality salience.]
{{Doomsday}}

{{DEFAULTSORT:Risks To Civilization, Humans And Planet Earth}}
[[Category:Futurology]]
[[Category:Eschatology]]
[[Category:Human extinction]]
[[Category:Teleology]]
[[Category:Hazards]]
[[Category:Risk analysis]]

[[fr:Fin du monde]]

George Zebrowski

2012-11-01T18:37:23Z

162.111.235.14: /* Novels */ fix typos :

{{Infobox person
| name = George Zebrowski
| image = 
| alt =
| caption =
| birth_name =
| birth_date = {{Birth date and age|1945|12|28}}
| birth_place = [[Villach]], [[Allied-occupied Austria|Austria]]
| death_date = 
| death_place =
| nationality =
| other_names =
| known_for =
| occupation =
}}
'''George Zebrowski''' (born December 28, 1945) is a [[science fiction]] author and editor who has written and edited a number of books, and is a former editor of The Bulletin of the Science Fiction Writers of America. He lives with author [[Pamela Sargent]], with whom he has co-written a number of [[novel]]s, including ''[[Star Trek]]'' novels.

Zebrowski won the [[John W. Campbell Memorial Award]] in 1999 for his novel ''Brute Orbits''.<ref name="Locus">[http://www.locusmag.com/SFAwards/Db/NomLit156.html#5804 The Locus Guide to SF Awards: Index of Literary Nominees]</ref> Three of his short stories, "Heathen God," "The Eichmann Variations," and "Wound the Wind," have been nominated for the [[Nebula Award]], and "The Idea Trap" was nominated for the [[Theodore Sturgeon Award]].

==Bibliography==
===Novels===
*''The Omega Point'' (1972)
*''The Star Web'' (1975)
*''Ashes and Stars'' (1977)
*''Sunspacer'' (1978)
*''[[Macrolife]]'' (1979)
*''A Silent Shout'' (1979)
*''Mirror of Minds'' (1983)
*''The Omega Point Trilogy'' (1983)
*''The Stars Will Speak'' (1985)
*''Stranger Suns'' (1989)
*''Behind the Stars'' (1996)
*''Sunspacers Trilogy'' (1996)
*''The Killing Star'' (1996) with [[Charles Pellegrino]]
*''Brute Orbits'' (1998)
*''Cave of Stars'' (1999)
*''Empties (novel)|Empties'' (2009)

===Collections===
*''The Monadic Universe'' (1977)
*''Swift Thoughts'' (2002)
*''In the Distance, and Ahead in Time'' (2002)
*''Black Pockets: And Other Dark Thoughts'' (2006)

===Anthologies edited===
*''Human Machines: An Anthology of Stories About Cyborgs]]'' (1975) with [[Thomas Scortia]]
*''Tomorrow Today: No. 1'' (1975)
*''Faster than Light'' (1976) with [[Jack Dann]]
*''Three in Space'' (1981) with Jack Dann and [[Pamela Sargent]]
*''Creations: The Quest for Origins in Story and Science'' (1983) with [[Isaac Asimov]] and [[Martin Greenberg]]
*''Synergy: New Science Fiction, Volume 1'' (1987)
*''Synergy: New Science Fiction, Volume 2'' (1988)
*''Synergy: New Science Fiction, Volume 3'' (1988)
*''Synergy: New Science Fiction, Volume 4'' (1989)
*''Three in Time'' (1997) with Jack Dann and Pamela Sargent
*''Synergy SF: New Science Fiction'' (2004)

===Nonfiction===
*''Beneath the Red Star: Studies on International Science Fiction'' (1996)
*''Skylife: Space Habitats in Story and Science'' (2000) with [[Gregory Benford]]

==References==
{{reflist}}

==Sources==
* [[The Encyclopedia of Science Fiction]]
* [[SFWA]]
* [[ISFDB]]

==External links==
* {{isfdb name|id=George_Zebrowski}}
*[http://www.goldengryphon.com/swift-frame.html Golden Gryphon Press official site] - About ''Swift Thoughts''
*[http://www.goldengryphon.com/pockets-frame.html Golden Gryphon Press official site] - About ''Black Pockets and Other Dark Thoughts''
*[http://memory-alpha.org/en/wiki/George_Zebrowski George Zebrowski] at [[Memory Alpha]]

{{Authority control|VIAF=92938481}}
{{Persondata 
| NAME =Zebrowski, George
| ALTERNATIVE NAMES =
| SHORT DESCRIPTION = Austrian writer
| DATE OF BIRTH = December 28, 1945
| PLACE OF BIRTH = [[Villach]], [[Austria]]
| DATE OF DEATH =
| PLACE OF DEATH =
}}
{{DEFAULTSORT:Zebrowski, George}}
[[Category:1945 births]]
[[Category:Living people]]
[[Category:American science fiction writers]]
[[Category:American people of Polish descent]]
[[Category:People from Villach]]

{{US-sf-writer-stub}}

[[fr:George Zebrowski]]
[[pl:George Zebrowski]]

George Zebrowski

2012-11-01T18:36:05Z

162.111.235.14: /* Nonfiction */ remove dead links

{{Infobox person
| name = George Zebrowski
| image = 
| alt =
| caption =
| birth_name =
| birth_date = {{Birth date and age|1945|12|28}}
| birth_place = [[Villach]], [[Allied-occupied Austria|Austria]]
| death_date = 
| death_place =
| nationality =
| other_names =
| known_for =
| occupation =
}}
'''George Zebrowski''' (born December 28, 1945) is a [[science fiction]] author and editor who has written and edited a number of books, and is a former editor of The Bulletin of the Science Fiction Writers of America. He lives with author [[Pamela Sargent]], with whom he has co-written a number of [[novel]]s, including ''[[Star Trek]]'' novels.

Zebrowski won the [[John W. Campbell Memorial Award]] in 1999 for his novel ''Brute Orbits''.<ref name="Locus">[http://www.locusmag.com/SFAwards/Db/NomLit156.html#5804 The Locus Guide to SF Awards: Index of Literary Nominees]</ref> Three of his short stories, "Heathen God," "The Eichmann Variations," and "Wound the Wind," have been nominated for the [[Nebula Award]], and "The Idea Trap" was nominated for the [[Theodore Sturgeon Award]].

==Bibliography==
===Novels===
*''The Omega Point'' (1972)
*''The Star Web'' (1975)
*''Ashes and Stars'' (1977)
*''Sunspacer'' (1978)
*''[[Macrolife]]'' (1979)
*''A Silent Shout'' (1979)
*''Mirror of Minds'' (1983)
*''The Omega Point Trilogy'' (1983)
*''The Stars Will Speak'' (1985)
*''Stranger Suns'' (1989)
*''Behind The Stars (novel)|Behind the Stars'' (1996)
*''Sunspacers Trilogy'' (1996)
*''The Killing Star'' (1996) with [[Charles Pellegrino]]
*''Brute Orbits'' (1998)
*''Cave of Stars'' (1999)
*''Empties (novel)|Empties'' (2009)

===Collections===
*''The Monadic Universe'' (1977)
*''Swift Thoughts'' (2002)
*''In the Distance, and Ahead in Time'' (2002)
*''Black Pockets: And Other Dark Thoughts'' (2006)

===Anthologies edited===
*''Human Machines: An Anthology of Stories About Cyborgs]]'' (1975) with [[Thomas Scortia]]
*''Tomorrow Today: No. 1'' (1975)
*''Faster than Light'' (1976) with [[Jack Dann]]
*''Three in Space'' (1981) with Jack Dann and [[Pamela Sargent]]
*''Creations: The Quest for Origins in Story and Science'' (1983) with [[Isaac Asimov]] and [[Martin Greenberg]]
*''Synergy: New Science Fiction, Volume 1'' (1987)
*''Synergy: New Science Fiction, Volume 2'' (1988)
*''Synergy: New Science Fiction, Volume 3'' (1988)
*''Synergy: New Science Fiction, Volume 4'' (1989)
*''Three in Time'' (1997) with Jack Dann and Pamela Sargent
*''Synergy SF: New Science Fiction'' (2004)

===Nonfiction===
*''Beneath the Red Star: Studies on International Science Fiction'' (1996)
*''Skylife: Space Habitats in Story and Science'' (2000) with [[Gregory Benford]]

==References==
{{reflist}}

==Sources==
* [[The Encyclopedia of Science Fiction]]
* [[SFWA]]
* [[ISFDB]]

==External links==
* {{isfdb name|id=George_Zebrowski}}
*[http://www.goldengryphon.com/swift-frame.html Golden Gryphon Press official site] - About ''Swift Thoughts''
*[http://www.goldengryphon.com/pockets-frame.html Golden Gryphon Press official site] - About ''Black Pockets and Other Dark Thoughts''
*[http://memory-alpha.org/en/wiki/George_Zebrowski George Zebrowski] at [[Memory Alpha]]

{{Authority control|VIAF=92938481}}
{{Persondata 
| NAME =Zebrowski, George
| ALTERNATIVE NAMES =
| SHORT DESCRIPTION = Austrian writer
| DATE OF BIRTH = December 28, 1945
| PLACE OF BIRTH = [[Villach]], [[Austria]]
| DATE OF DEATH =
| PLACE OF DEATH =
}}
{{DEFAULTSORT:Zebrowski, George}}
[[Category:1945 births]]
[[Category:Living people]]
[[Category:American science fiction writers]]
[[Category:American people of Polish descent]]
[[Category:People from Villach]]

{{US-sf-writer-stub}}

[[fr:George Zebrowski]]
[[pl:George Zebrowski]]

George Zebrowski

2012-11-01T18:35:38Z

162.111.235.14: /* Anthologies edited */ remove dead links

{{Infobox person
| name = George Zebrowski
| image = 
| alt =
| caption =
| birth_name =
| birth_date = {{Birth date and age|1945|12|28}}
| birth_place = [[Villach]], [[Allied-occupied Austria|Austria]]
| death_date = 
| death_place =
| nationality =
| other_names =
| known_for =
| occupation =
}}
'''George Zebrowski''' (born December 28, 1945) is a [[science fiction]] author and editor who has written and edited a number of books, and is a former editor of The Bulletin of the Science Fiction Writers of America. He lives with author [[Pamela Sargent]], with whom he has co-written a number of [[novel]]s, including ''[[Star Trek]]'' novels.

Zebrowski won the [[John W. Campbell Memorial Award]] in 1999 for his novel ''Brute Orbits''.<ref name="Locus">[http://www.locusmag.com/SFAwards/Db/NomLit156.html#5804 The Locus Guide to SF Awards: Index of Literary Nominees]</ref> Three of his short stories, "Heathen God," "The Eichmann Variations," and "Wound the Wind," have been nominated for the [[Nebula Award]], and "The Idea Trap" was nominated for the [[Theodore Sturgeon Award]].

==Bibliography==
===Novels===
*''The Omega Point'' (1972)
*''The Star Web'' (1975)
*''Ashes and Stars'' (1977)
*''Sunspacer'' (1978)
*''[[Macrolife]]'' (1979)
*''A Silent Shout'' (1979)
*''Mirror of Minds'' (1983)
*''The Omega Point Trilogy'' (1983)
*''The Stars Will Speak'' (1985)
*''Stranger Suns'' (1989)
*''Behind The Stars (novel)|Behind the Stars'' (1996)
*''Sunspacers Trilogy'' (1996)
*''The Killing Star'' (1996) with [[Charles Pellegrino]]
*''Brute Orbits'' (1998)
*''Cave of Stars'' (1999)
*''Empties (novel)|Empties'' (2009)

===Collections===
*''The Monadic Universe'' (1977)
*''Swift Thoughts'' (2002)
*''In the Distance, and Ahead in Time'' (2002)
*''Black Pockets: And Other Dark Thoughts'' (2006)

===Anthologies edited===
*''Human Machines: An Anthology of Stories About Cyborgs]]'' (1975) with [[Thomas Scortia]]
*''Tomorrow Today: No. 1'' (1975)
*''Faster than Light'' (1976) with [[Jack Dann]]
*''Three in Space'' (1981) with Jack Dann and [[Pamela Sargent]]
*''Creations: The Quest for Origins in Story and Science'' (1983) with [[Isaac Asimov]] and [[Martin Greenberg]]
*''Synergy: New Science Fiction, Volume 1'' (1987)
*''Synergy: New Science Fiction, Volume 2'' (1988)
*''Synergy: New Science Fiction, Volume 3'' (1988)
*''Synergy: New Science Fiction, Volume 4'' (1989)
*''Three in Time'' (1997) with Jack Dann and Pamela Sargent
*''Synergy SF: New Science Fiction'' (2004)

===Nonfiction===
*''[[Beneath the Red Star: Studies on International Science Fiction]]'' (1996)
*''[[Skylife: Space Habitats in Story and Science]]'' (2000) with [[Gregory Benford]]

==References==
{{reflist}}

==Sources==
* [[The Encyclopedia of Science Fiction]]
* [[SFWA]]
* [[ISFDB]]

==External links==
* {{isfdb name|id=George_Zebrowski}}
*[http://www.goldengryphon.com/swift-frame.html Golden Gryphon Press official site] - About ''Swift Thoughts''
*[http://www.goldengryphon.com/pockets-frame.html Golden Gryphon Press official site] - About ''Black Pockets and Other Dark Thoughts''
*[http://memory-alpha.org/en/wiki/George_Zebrowski George Zebrowski] at [[Memory Alpha]]

{{Authority control|VIAF=92938481}}
{{Persondata 
| NAME =Zebrowski, George
| ALTERNATIVE NAMES =
| SHORT DESCRIPTION = Austrian writer
| DATE OF BIRTH = December 28, 1945
| PLACE OF BIRTH = [[Villach]], [[Austria]]
| DATE OF DEATH =
| PLACE OF DEATH =
}}
{{DEFAULTSORT:Zebrowski, George}}
[[Category:1945 births]]
[[Category:Living people]]
[[Category:American science fiction writers]]
[[Category:American people of Polish descent]]
[[Category:People from Villach]]

{{US-sf-writer-stub}}

[[fr:George Zebrowski]]
[[pl:George Zebrowski]]

George Zebrowski

2012-11-01T18:33:55Z

162.111.235.14: /* Collections */ remove deal links

{{Infobox person
| name = George Zebrowski
| image = 
| alt =
| caption =
| birth_name =
| birth_date = {{Birth date and age|1945|12|28}}
| birth_place = [[Villach]], [[Allied-occupied Austria|Austria]]
| death_date = 
| death_place =
| nationality =
| other_names =
| known_for =
| occupation =
}}
'''George Zebrowski''' (born December 28, 1945) is a [[science fiction]] author and editor who has written and edited a number of books, and is a former editor of The Bulletin of the Science Fiction Writers of America. He lives with author [[Pamela Sargent]], with whom he has co-written a number of [[novel]]s, including ''[[Star Trek]]'' novels.

Zebrowski won the [[John W. Campbell Memorial Award]] in 1999 for his novel ''Brute Orbits''.<ref name="Locus">[http://www.locusmag.com/SFAwards/Db/NomLit156.html#5804 The Locus Guide to SF Awards: Index of Literary Nominees]</ref> Three of his short stories, "Heathen God," "The Eichmann Variations," and "Wound the Wind," have been nominated for the [[Nebula Award]], and "The Idea Trap" was nominated for the [[Theodore Sturgeon Award]].

==Bibliography==
===Novels===
*''The Omega Point'' (1972)
*''The Star Web'' (1975)
*''Ashes and Stars'' (1977)
*''Sunspacer'' (1978)
*''[[Macrolife]]'' (1979)
*''A Silent Shout'' (1979)
*''Mirror of Minds'' (1983)
*''The Omega Point Trilogy'' (1983)
*''The Stars Will Speak'' (1985)
*''Stranger Suns'' (1989)
*''Behind The Stars (novel)|Behind the Stars'' (1996)
*''Sunspacers Trilogy'' (1996)
*''The Killing Star'' (1996) with [[Charles Pellegrino]]
*''Brute Orbits'' (1998)
*''Cave of Stars'' (1999)
*''Empties (novel)|Empties'' (2009)

===Collections===
*''The Monadic Universe'' (1977)
*''Swift Thoughts'' (2002)
*''In the Distance, and Ahead in Time'' (2002)
*''Black Pockets: And Other Dark Thoughts'' (2006)

===Anthologies edited===
*''[[Human Machines: An Anthology of Stories About Cyborgs]]'' (1975) with [[Thomas Scortia]]
*''[[Tomorrow Today: No. 1]]'' (1975)
*''[[Faster than Light]]'' (1976) with [[Jack Dann]]
*''[[Three in Space]]'' (1981) with [[Jack Dann]] and [[Pamela Sargent]]
*''[[Creations: The Quest for Origins in Story and Science]]'' (1983) with [[Isaac Asimov]] and [[Martin Greenberg]]
*''[[Synergy: New Science Fiction, Volume 1]]'' (1987)
*''[[Synergy: New Science Fiction, Volume 2]]'' (1988)
*''[[Synergy: New Science Fiction, Volume 3]]'' (1988)
*''[[Synergy: New Science Fiction, Volume 4]]'' (1989)
*''[[Three in Time]]'' (1997) with [[Jack Dann]] and [[Pamela Sargent]]
*''[[Synergy SF: New Science Fiction]]'' (2004)

===Nonfiction===
*''[[Beneath the Red Star: Studies on International Science Fiction]]'' (1996)
*''[[Skylife: Space Habitats in Story and Science]]'' (2000) with [[Gregory Benford]]

==References==
{{reflist}}

==Sources==
* [[The Encyclopedia of Science Fiction]]
* [[SFWA]]
* [[ISFDB]]

==External links==
* {{isfdb name|id=George_Zebrowski}}
*[http://www.goldengryphon.com/swift-frame.html Golden Gryphon Press official site] - About ''Swift Thoughts''
*[http://www.goldengryphon.com/pockets-frame.html Golden Gryphon Press official site] - About ''Black Pockets and Other Dark Thoughts''
*[http://memory-alpha.org/en/wiki/George_Zebrowski George Zebrowski] at [[Memory Alpha]]

{{Authority control|VIAF=92938481}}
{{Persondata 
| NAME =Zebrowski, George
| ALTERNATIVE NAMES =
| SHORT DESCRIPTION = Austrian writer
| DATE OF BIRTH = December 28, 1945
| PLACE OF BIRTH = [[Villach]], [[Austria]]
| DATE OF DEATH =
| PLACE OF DEATH =
}}
{{DEFAULTSORT:Zebrowski, George}}
[[Category:1945 births]]
[[Category:Living people]]
[[Category:American science fiction writers]]
[[Category:American people of Polish descent]]
[[Category:People from Villach]]

{{US-sf-writer-stub}}

[[fr:George Zebrowski]]
[[pl:George Zebrowski]]

George Zebrowski

2012-11-01T18:33:03Z

162.111.235.14: /* Novels */ remove dead links

{{Infobox person
| name = George Zebrowski
| image = 
| alt =
| caption =
| birth_name =
| birth_date = {{Birth date and age|1945|12|28}}
| birth_place = [[Villach]], [[Allied-occupied Austria|Austria]]
| death_date = 
| death_place =
| nationality =
| other_names =
| known_for =
| occupation =
}}
'''George Zebrowski''' (born December 28, 1945) is a [[science fiction]] author and editor who has written and edited a number of books, and is a former editor of The Bulletin of the Science Fiction Writers of America. He lives with author [[Pamela Sargent]], with whom he has co-written a number of [[novel]]s, including ''[[Star Trek]]'' novels.

Zebrowski won the [[John W. Campbell Memorial Award]] in 1999 for his novel ''Brute Orbits''.<ref name="Locus">[http://www.locusmag.com/SFAwards/Db/NomLit156.html#5804 The Locus Guide to SF Awards: Index of Literary Nominees]</ref> Three of his short stories, "Heathen God," "The Eichmann Variations," and "Wound the Wind," have been nominated for the [[Nebula Award]], and "The Idea Trap" was nominated for the [[Theodore Sturgeon Award]].

==Bibliography==
===Novels===
*''The Omega Point'' (1972)
*''The Star Web'' (1975)
*''Ashes and Stars'' (1977)
*''Sunspacer'' (1978)
*''[[Macrolife]]'' (1979)
*''A Silent Shout'' (1979)
*''Mirror of Minds'' (1983)
*''The Omega Point Trilogy'' (1983)
*''The Stars Will Speak'' (1985)
*''Stranger Suns'' (1989)
*''Behind The Stars (novel)|Behind the Stars'' (1996)
*''Sunspacers Trilogy'' (1996)
*''The Killing Star'' (1996) with [[Charles Pellegrino]]
*''Brute Orbits'' (1998)
*''Cave of Stars'' (1999)
*''Empties (novel)|Empties'' (2009)

===Collections===
*''[[The Monadic Universe]]'' (1977)
*''[[Swift Thoughts]]'' (2002)
*''[[In the Distance, and Ahead in Time]]'' (2002)
*''[[Black Pockets: And Other Dark Thoughts]]'' (2006)

===Anthologies edited===
*''[[Human Machines: An Anthology of Stories About Cyborgs]]'' (1975) with [[Thomas Scortia]]
*''[[Tomorrow Today: No. 1]]'' (1975)
*''[[Faster than Light]]'' (1976) with [[Jack Dann]]
*''[[Three in Space]]'' (1981) with [[Jack Dann]] and [[Pamela Sargent]]
*''[[Creations: The Quest for Origins in Story and Science]]'' (1983) with [[Isaac Asimov]] and [[Martin Greenberg]]
*''[[Synergy: New Science Fiction, Volume 1]]'' (1987)
*''[[Synergy: New Science Fiction, Volume 2]]'' (1988)
*''[[Synergy: New Science Fiction, Volume 3]]'' (1988)
*''[[Synergy: New Science Fiction, Volume 4]]'' (1989)
*''[[Three in Time]]'' (1997) with [[Jack Dann]] and [[Pamela Sargent]]
*''[[Synergy SF: New Science Fiction]]'' (2004)

===Nonfiction===
*''[[Beneath the Red Star: Studies on International Science Fiction]]'' (1996)
*''[[Skylife: Space Habitats in Story and Science]]'' (2000) with [[Gregory Benford]]

==References==
{{reflist}}

==Sources==
* [[The Encyclopedia of Science Fiction]]
* [[SFWA]]
* [[ISFDB]]

==External links==
* {{isfdb name|id=George_Zebrowski}}
*[http://www.goldengryphon.com/swift-frame.html Golden Gryphon Press official site] - About ''Swift Thoughts''
*[http://www.goldengryphon.com/pockets-frame.html Golden Gryphon Press official site] - About ''Black Pockets and Other Dark Thoughts''
*[http://memory-alpha.org/en/wiki/George_Zebrowski George Zebrowski] at [[Memory Alpha]]

{{Authority control|VIAF=92938481}}
{{Persondata 
| NAME =Zebrowski, George
| ALTERNATIVE NAMES =
| SHORT DESCRIPTION = Austrian writer
| DATE OF BIRTH = December 28, 1945
| PLACE OF BIRTH = [[Villach]], [[Austria]]
| DATE OF DEATH =
| PLACE OF DEATH =
}}
{{DEFAULTSORT:Zebrowski, George}}
[[Category:1945 births]]
[[Category:Living people]]
[[Category:American science fiction writers]]
[[Category:American people of Polish descent]]
[[Category:People from Villach]]

{{US-sf-writer-stub}}

[[fr:George Zebrowski]]
[[pl:George Zebrowski]]

Hampton University

2010-10-29T17:16:01Z

162.111.235.14: /* Business */

{{Infobox university
|name = Hampton University
|native_name =
|image_name = Hampton University logo.png
|image_size =
|caption =
|latin_name =
|motto = "The Standard of Excellence, An Education for Life"
|mottoeng =
|established = {{Start date|1868|04|01}}
|closed =
|type = [[Private school|Private]] [[Historically black colleges and universities|HBCU]]
|affiliation =
|endowment = $193 million<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.nacubo.org/Documents/research/2009_NCSE_Public_Tables_Endowment_Market_Values.pdf|title=NCSE Public Tables}}</ref>
|officer_in_charge =
|chairman =
|chancellor =
|president = [[William R. Harvey]]
|vice-president =
|superintendent =
|provost =
|vice_chancellor =
|rector =
|principal =
|dean =
|director =
|head_label =
|head =
|faculty =
|staff =
|students = 5,000
|undergrad =
|postgrad =
|doctoral =
|other =
|city = [[Hampton, Virginia|Hampton]]
|state = [[Virginia]]
|province =
|country = [[United States of America|United States]]
|coor =
|campus = [[Suburban]]
|former_names = Hampton Normal and Agricultural Institute<br />Hampton Institute
|free_label =
|free =
|sports =
|colors =
|colours =
|nickname = Pirates
|mascot =
|athletics = [[National Collegiate Athletic Association|NCAA]] [[Division I (NCAA)#Football Championship Subdivision|Division I FCS]]
|affiliations = [[Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference|MEAC]]<br />[[Middle Atlantic Intercollegiate Sailing Association|MAISA]]
|website = [http://www.hamptonu.edu/ www.hamptonu.edu]
|logo = [[File:HamptonU.jpg]]
|footnotes =
}}'''Hampton University''' is a [[Historically black colleges and universities|historically black university]] located in [[Hampton, Virginia]], [[United States]].

==History==
The campus overlooking the northern edge of the harbor of [[Hampton Roads]] was founded on the grounds of "Little Scotland", a former plantation in [[Elizabeth City County, Virginia|Elizabeth City County]] not far from [[Fortress Monroe]] and the [[Grand Contraband Camp]], each tangible symbols of freedom for former [[History of slavery in the United States|slaves]] shortly after the end of the [[American Civil War]].

First led by former [[Union Army|Union]] General [[Samuel Chapman Armstrong]], among the school's famous alumni is educator [[Booker T. Washington|Dr. Booker T. Washington]], who later founded [[Tuskeegee Institute]]. Under what is now called the [[Emancipation Oak]] tree, [[Mary S. Peake|Mary Smith Peake]] taught the first classes on September 17, 1861, in defiance of a Virginia law against teaching slaves, free blacks and mulattoes to read or write, a law which had cut her own education short years earlier. Several years later, U.S. President [[Abraham Lincoln]]'s Emancipation Proclamation was read to local freedmen under the same historic tree, which is still located on the campus today, and also serves as a symbol for the modern city of Hampton.

===Civil War===
During the [[American Civil War]] (1861–1865), Union-held [[Fortress Monroe]] in southeastern [[Virginia]] at the mouth of [[Hampton Roads]] became a gathering point and safe haven of sorts for [[fugitive slave]]s. These individuals were labeled [[contraband (American Civil War)|"contraband of War]] by the commander, General [[Benjamin Franklin Butler (politician)|Benjamin F. Butler]], and thereby safe from return to slave owners. As large numbers of individuals sought status as contrabands, they built the Grand Contraband Camp nearby from materials reclaimed from the ruins of Hampton, which had been burned by retreating Confederates. This area was later referred to as "Slabtown."

Hampton University can trace its roots to the work of [[Mary S. Peake]] of Norfolk, which began in 1861 with outdoor classes she taught under the landmark [[Emancipation Oak]] in the nearby area of [[Elizabeth City County, Virginia|Elizabeth City County]] adjacent to the old sea port of [[Hampton, Virginia|Hampton]]. The newly-issued [[Emancipation Proclamation]] was first read to a gathering under the historic tree there in 1863.

===Beginnings after the War: teaching teachers===
[[Image:Hampton Institute - geography.jpg|thumb|An 1899 class in mathematical geography]] After the War, a [[normal school]] ("normal" meaning to establish standards or ''norms'' while educating teachers) was formalized in 1868, with former [[Union (American Civil War)|Union]] brevet Brigadier General [[Samuel Chapman Armstrong]] (1839–1893) as its first principal. The new school was established on the grounds of a former [[plantation]] named "Little Scotland" which had a view of the great harbor of Hampton Roads, with the original school buildings fronting the Hampton River. It was legally [[charter]]ed in 1870 as a [[land grant university|land grant school]], and was first known as "Hampton Normal and Agricultural Institute."

Typical of traditionally Indian, Mulatto and Black colleges and universities, Hampton received much of its financial support in the years following the Civil War from church groups and former officers and soldiers of the Union Army. One of the many Civil War veterans who gave substantial sums to the school was General [[William Jackson Palmer]], a Union cavalry commander from [[Philadelphia, Pennsylvania|Philadelphia]], who later built the [[Denver and Rio Grande Western Railroad]], and founded [[Colorado Springs, Colorado]]. As the Civil War began in 1861, although his [[Quaker]] upbringing made Palmer abhor violence, his passion to see the [[slavery|slave]]s free compelled him to enter the war. He was awarded the [[Medal of Honor]] for bravery in 1894. (The current Palmer Hall on the campus is named in his honor.)

[[Image:Hampton Institute - bricklaying.jpg|thumb|Students in an 1899 bricklaying class]] Unlike the wealthy Palmer, Sam Armstrong was the son of a [[missionary]] to the [[Hawaiian Islands|Sandwich Islands]] (which later became the U.S. state of [[Hawaii]]). However, he also had dreams and aspirations for the betterment of the newly freed slaves. He patterned his new school in the manner of his father, who had overseen the teaching of reading, writing and arithmetic to the Polynesians. He also felt it was important to add the skills necessary to be self-supporting in the impoverished South. Under his guidance, a Hampton-style education became well-known as an education that combined cultural uplift with moral and manual training, or as Armstrong was fond of saying, an education that encompassed "the head, the heart, and the hands."

At the close of its first decade, the school reported a total admission in the ten years of 927 students, with 277 graduates, all but 17 of whom had become teachers. Many of them had bought land and established themselves in homes; many were farming as well as teaching; some had gone into business. Only a very small proportion had failed to do well. By another 10 years, there had been over 600 graduates. In 1888, of the 537 of them alive, three-fourths were teaching, and about half as many undergraduates were also currently teaching. It was estimated that 15,000 children in community schools were being taught by Hampton's students and alumni that year.<ref>[http://www.rootsweb.com/%7Eusgenweb/va/history/lamb/lamb5.html Our Twin Cities of the Nineteenth Century: Norfolk and Portsmouth, Their Past, Present, and Future] Robert W. Lamb, Editor. Norfolk, VA: Barcroft, Publisher. 1887–8. Norfolk Landmark Steam Presses.</ref>

===Booker T. Washington: spreading the educational work===
{{details|Booker T. Washington}}Among Hampton's earliest students was [[Booker T. Washington]], who arrived from [[West Virginia]] in 1872 at the age of 16. He worked his way through Hampton, and then went on to attend [[Wayland Seminary]] in Washington D.C. After graduation there, he returned to Hampton and became a teacher. Upon recommendation of Sam Armstrong to founder [[Lewis Adams]] and others, in 1881, Washington was sent to [[Alabama]] at age 25 to head another new normal school. This new Institution eventually became [[Tuskegee University]]. Embracing much of Armstrong's philosophy, Washington built Tuskegee into a substantial school and became nationally famous as an educator, orator, and fund-raiser as well. He started work which ultimately caused over 5,000 small community schools to be built for the betterment of black education in the South.

===Native Americans===
In 1878, Hampton established a formal education program for [[Native Americans in the United States|Native Americans]], beginning the Institute's lasting commitment to serving a [[multicultural]] population. Recent initiatives have proven unsuccessful in renewing the interest of indigenous people in Hampton.{{Citation needed|date=August 2009}} (Virginia has two reservations, and a growing number of recognized Native American tribes). There are a number of grave markers in the university cemetery that display the diversity of tribes that attended the school.

===Name changes, expansion, community===
Hampton Normal and Agricultural Institute became simply Hampton Institute in 1930 and became Hampton University in 1984.<ref>school site</ref> Originally located in [[Elizabeth City County, Virginia|Elizabeth City County]], it was long-located in the town of [[Phoebus, Virginia|Phoebus]], which was incorporated in 1900. Phoebus and Elizabeth City County were consolidated with the neighboring [[Hampton, Virginia|City of Hampton]] to form a much larger [[independent city]] in 1952. The City of Hampton uses the Emancipation Oak on its official seal. From 1960 to 1970, noted diplomat and educator [[Jerome H. Holland]] was president of the Hampton Institute.

The school is informally called simply "Hampton" or "HU" by many students, faculty and supporters. Hampton University and Howard University constantly claim the title, "The Real HU". Both schools enjoy the friendly rivalry.

==Campus==
The campus contains several buildings that contribute to its [[National Historic Landmark]] district: Virginia-Cleveland Hall (freshman female dormitory, as well as home to the school's two cafeterias), Wigwam building (home to administrative offices), Academy Building (administrative offices), Memorial Chapel (religious services) and the President's Mansion House.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.hamptonu.edu/studentservices/admissions/tour/index.htm|title=Hampton University - Admissions|accessdate=2007-05-03 |archiveurl = http://web.archive.org/web/20070430004509/http://www.hamptonu.edu/studentservices/admissions/tour/index.htm  |archivedate = 2007-04-30}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.cr.nps.gov/nhl/designations/Lists/VA01.pdf|format=PDF|title=National Historic Landmarks Survey: Listing of National Historic Landmarks by State:Virginia|accessdate=2007-05-03}}</ref>

The original Phenix High School on the campus became Phenix Hall when [[Hampton City Public Schools]] opened a new Phenix High School in 1959. Phenix Hall received minor fire damage on June 12, 2008.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.dailypress.com/news/local/dp-now-hufire.jn12,0,3772406.story|title=Fire damages historic building on HU campus — dailypress.com}}</ref>

The Emancipation Oak was cited by the [[National Geographic Society]] as one of the 10 great trees in the world.

===National Historic Landmark District===
{{Infobox nrhp
| name =Hampton Institute
| nrhp_type = nhld
| image =
| caption =
| location= NW of jct. of U.S. 60 and the Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel, [[Hampton, Virginia]]
| locmapin = Virginia
| area =
| built =1866
| architect= [[Richard Morris Hunt]]; Et al.
| architecture=
| designated_nrhp_type = May 30, 1974<ref name="nhlsum"/>
| added = November 12, 1969<ref name="nris">{{cite web|url=http://www.nr.nps.gov/|title=National Register Information System|date=2007-01-23|work=National Register of Historic Places|publisher=National Park Service}}</ref>
| governing_body = Private
| refnum=69000323
}}A {{convert|15|acre|m2|sing=on}} portion of the campus along the Hampton River, including many of the older buildings, is a U.S. [[National Historic Landmark District]]. Buildings included are:
*''Mansion House'', original plantation residence of Little Scotland
*''Virginia Hall'' built in 1873
*''Academic Hall''
*''Wigwam''
*''Marquand Memorial Chapel'', a [[Romanesque Revival]] red brick chapel with a {{convert|150|ft|m|sing=on}} tower
In addition, although Cleveland Hall, Ogden, and the Administration building have less historical significance, they are also included in the district.<ref name="nrhpinv2"/>

The district was listed on the [[National Register of Historic Places]] in 1969,<ref name="nris"/> and was further declared a [[National Historic Landmark]] in 1974.<ref name="nhlsum">{{cite web|url=http://tps.cr.nps.gov/nhl/detail.cfm?ResourceId=868&ResourceType=District
|title=Hampton Institute |accessdate=2008-05-30|work=National Historic Landmark summary listing|publisher=National Park Service}}</ref>
<ref name="nrhpinv2">{{Cite document|url=http://pdfhost.focus.nps.gov/docs/NHLS/Text/69000323.pdf|title=National Register of Historic Places Inventory-Nomination: Hampton Institute / Hampton Normal and Industrial Institute|date=January 9, 1974 |author=Carol Ann Poh |publisher=National Park Service|postscript=}} and {{PDFlink|[http://pdfhost.focus.nps.gov/docs/NHLS/Photos/69000323.pdf ''Accompanying 17 photos, from 1973'']|5.84 MB}}</ref>

==Student activities==
===Athletics===
{{2010 MEAC football standings|team=HAM}}In 1995, Hampton joined the [[Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference]], commonly referred to as the MEAC. Since joining, Hampton has won dozens of MEAC titles in football, men's and women's basketball, men's and women's track, and men's and women's tennis. In March 2001, the men's basketball team made NCAA Tournament history, becoming only the fourth 15th-seeded team to defeat a 2nd-seeded team. Hampton defeated Iowa State, 58–57 on March 15, but lost to Georgetown two days later. The win still makes [[SportsCenter]]'s Top 10 NCAA tournament upsets.

Rivals include [[Norfolk State University]], located across [[Hampton Roads]] in downtown Norfolk, and [[Howard University]] in [[Washington, D.C.]]

Hampton's colors are [[blue]] and [[white]], and their nickname is "The Pirates". Hampton sports teams participate in NCAA Division I (I-AA for [[College football|football]]) in the [[Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference]] (MEAC) in which they joined in 1995 after leaving the Central Intercollegiate Athletic Association. Since joining, Hampton has won MEAC titles in many sports, including football, men's and women's basketball, men's and women's track, and men's and women's tennis. In 2001, the Hampton [[basketball]] team won its first [[NCAA Men's Basketball Division I Championship|NCAA Tournament]] game, when they beat [[Iowa State University|Iowa State]] 58–57, in one of the largest [[upset]]s of all time. The "Lady Pirates" basketball team has seen great success as well, and made trips to the [[NCAA Women's Division I Basketball Championship|NCAA tournament]] in 2000, 2003, 2004, and 2010. In 1988, as a [[Division II (NCAA)|Division II]] school, the Lady Pirates won the [[NCAA Women's Division II Basketball Championship|D2 national championship]], defeating [[West Texas State]].

They won their conference in football in 1997, shared one in 1998 and 2004, and won the conference out right in 2005, 2006. From 2004 to 2007, the university's football team saw much success. The team won 3 MEAC Championships, 3 SBN-Black College National Championships, and was ranked in the Division I FCS top 25 poll each year. The Pirates also sent five players to the NFL Combine in 2007, the most out of any FCS subdivision school for that year. They have also been dominant in tennis winning the MEAC from 1996–1999, 2001-2003 & 2007 for the men and 1998, 2002-2004 for the women. They've also won the men's conference basketball tournament in 2001, 2002, 2006.

==Notable alumni==
===Business===
{{AlumniStart}}
{{Alum|name=George R. Lewis|year=|nota=former President & CEO, [[Altria Group|Phillip Morris]] Capital Corporation; Listed among the ''Top 50 Black Executives'' by [[Ebony Magazine]]|ref=<ref>money.cnn.com/magazines/.../index.htm</ref>}}
{{Alum|name=[[Charles Phillips (businessman)|Charles Phillips]]|year=|nota=President, [[Oracle Corporation]]|ref=}}
{{AlumniEnd}}

{{Alum|name=[[Tami Simmons(businesswoman)|Tami Simmons]]|year=|nota=Senior Vice President, [[Wells Fargo]]|ref=}}

===Education===
{{AlumniStart}}
{{Alum|name=[[Martha Louise Morrow Foxx]]|year=|nota=noted blind educator|ref=}}
{{Alum|name=[[Freeman A. Hrabowski III]]|year=|nota=President of the [[University of Maryland, Baltimore County]]|ref=}}
{{Alum|name=Kimberly Oliver|year=|nota=2006 National Teacher of the Year|ref=<ref>[http://www.ccsso.org/projects/national_teacher_of_the_year/national_teachers/8144.cfm Kimberly Oliver]</ref>}}
{{Alum|name=William C. Hunter|year=|nota=Dean of the [[Tippie College of Business]] at [[Iowa University]]|ref=<ref>http://www.tippie.uiowa.edu/about/message.cfm</ref>}}
{{Alum|name=Dianne Boardley Suber|year=|nota=President of [[Saint Augustine's College]]|ref=}}
{{Alum|name=Edward McIntosh|year=|nota=Scholar and Educator|ref=}}
{{AlumniEnd}}

===Entertainment===
{{AlumniStart}}
{{Alum|name=[[John T. Biggers]]|year=|nota=[[Harlem Renaissance]] Muralist and founder of the Art Department at [[Texas Southern University]]|ref=}}
{{Alum|name=[[Spencer Christian]]|year=|nota=fmr. weatherman for [[Good Morning America]]|ref=}}
{{Alum|name=[[Wanda Sykes]]|year=1986|nota=comedian|ref=}}
{{Alum|name=[[DJ Envy]]|year=1999|nota=disc jockey|ref=}}
{{Alum|name=Dr. Kenneth L. Riddle|year=|nota=Recording artist — Member of Tye Tribbett and Greater Anointing|ref=}}
{{Alum|name=Robi Reed|year=|nota=casting director, ''School Daze'', ''Love Jones'', ''Soul Food''|ref=}}
{{Alum|name=[[Dorothy Maynor]]|year=|nota=concert singer|ref=}}
{{Alum|name=[[Brandon Fobbs]]|year=2002|nota=actor; movies such as Pride with Terrence Howard|ref= }}
{{Alum|name=[[Beverly Gooden]]|year=2005|nota=Best Selling Author, Confessions of a Church Girl|ref=}}
{{Alum|name=Emil Wilbekin|year=|nota=entertainment journalist|ref=}}
{{Alum|name=[[RaSheeda Waddell]]|year=2007|nota=Miss Black North Carolina 2009|ref=}}
{{Alum|name=Angela Burt Murray|year=N/A|nota=Editor in Chief of Essence Magazine|ref=}}
{{Alum|name=[[A. S. "Doc" Young|A. S. (Doc) Young]]|year=1941|nota=Sports journalist|ref=<ref name='Jet-30Sep1996'>{{cite journal |last= |first= |author= |authorlink= |coauthors= |editor1-first=Sylvia P. |editor1-last=Flanagan |editor1-link= |date=September 30, 1996 |year= |month= |title=A.S. 'Doc' Young, Noted Journalist-Author, Dies |trans_title= |journal=Jet |volume=90 |series= |issue=20 |page=60 |pages= |at= |publisher=Johnson Publishing Company, Inc. |location=Chicago, Illinois |issn= |pmid= |pmc= |doi= |bibcode= |oclc= |id= |url= |language= |format= |archiveurl= |archivedate= |accessdate= |laysummary= |laysource= |laydate= |quote= |ref= |separator= |postscript= }}</ref>}}
{{AlumniEnd}}

===Politics and government===
{{AlumniStart}}
{{Alum|name=[[Allyson Kay Duncan]]|year=|nota=4th Cir US Circuit Court Judge|ref=}}
{{Alum|name=[[Michael K. Fauntroy]]|year=|nota=Professor and political commentator|ref=}}
{{Alum|name=[[Vanessa Gilmore]]|year=|nota=US District Court Judge (S.D. Texas)|ref=}}
{{Alum|name=Theodore Theopolis Jones II|year=|nota=Associate Judge of the [[Court of Appeals]], [[New York]]|ref=}}
{{Alum|name=Gloria Gary Lawlah|year=1960|nota=Secretary of Aging for the State of [[Maryland]]|ref=<ref>http://www.msa.md.gov/msa/mdmanual/10da/html/msa12153.html</ref>}}
{{Alum|name=Bryan T. Norwood|year=|nota=Chief of the Bridgeport Police Department|ref=}}
{{Alum|name=[[Douglas Palmer]]|year=|nota=Mayor of [[Trenton, New Jersey]]|ref=}}
{{Alum|name=[[Henry E. Parker]]|year=|nota=Former State Treasurer of Connecticut|ref=}}
{{Alum|name=[[Joan Pratt]]|year=1974|nota=Comptroller [[City of Baltimore]] |ref=}}
{{Alum|name=[[Gregory M. Sleet]]|year=|nota=US District Court Judge (D. Del.)|ref=}}
{{Alum|name=[[Danielle Crutchfield]]|year=2003|nota= Deputy Assistant to the President and [[White House]] Director of Scheduling|ref=}}
{{Alum|name=[[Rashad Drakeford]]|year=2009|nota= Trip Coordinator for the [[United States Secretary of Energy]]|ref=}}
{{AlumniEnd}}

===Science===
{{AlumniStart}}
{{Alum|name=[[Booker T. Washington]]|year=1875|nota=Founded [[Tuskegee Institute]] in Alabama.|ref=}}
{{AlumniEnd}}

===Sociology===
{{AlumniStart}}
{{Alum|name=[[Alberta Williams King]]|year=1924|nota=mother of Martin Luther King Jr.|ref=}}
{{Alum|name=[[Elizabeth Omilami]]|year=|nota=Chief Executive Officer, Hosea Feed the Hungry and Homeless|ref=}}
{{AlumniEnd}}

===Sports===
{{AlumniStart}}
{{Alum|name=[[Darian Barnes]]|year=|nota=Running Back, [[National Football League|NFL]], [[Tampa Bay Buccaneers]] (2002 – 2007)|ref=<ref name="Hampton Pros">{{cite web|title=NFL Players who attended Hampton University |publisher=databaseSports.com|url=http://www.databasefootball.com/players/bycollege.htm?sch=Hampton+University|accessdate=2008-04-05}}</ref>}}
{{Alum|name=[[Johnnie Barnes]]|year=|nota=[[National Football League|NFL]],(1992 – 1995)|ref=<ref name="Hampton Pros"/>}}
{{Alum|name=[[James Carter (athlete)|James Carter]]|year=|nota=award-winning [[Track and field|Track]] athlete|ref=}}
{{Alum|name=[[Alonzo Coleman]]|year=|nota=[[National Football League|NFL]], [[Dallas Cowboys]]|ref=}}
{{Alum|name=[[Justin Durant]]|year=|nota=[[National Football League|NFL]] Football Player, [[Jacksonville Jaguars]]|ref=}}
{{Alum|name=[[Rick Mahorn]]|year=|nota=former [[National Basketball Association|NBA]] Player [[Detroit Pistons]], WNBA Detroit Shock Head Coach|ref=}}
{{Alum|name=[[Nevin McCaskill]]|year=|nota= [[National Football League|NFL]] Football Player, [[Buffalo Bills]]|ref=}}
{{Alum|name=Donovan Rose|year=|nota=Cornerback, [[National Football League|NFL]], [[Miami Dolphins]] (1980 – 1987)|ref=<ref name="Hampton Pros"/>}}
{{Alum|name=[[Terrence Warren]]|year=|nota=[[Seattle Seahawks]] (1993 – 1995)|ref=<ref name="Hampton Pros"/>}}
{{Alum|name=Cordell Taylor|year=|nota=Jacksonville Jaguars 1998|ref=}}
{{AlumniEnd}}

== School shooting ==
On April 26, 2009 a shooting occurred at the Hampton University. 18-year old former student Odane Maye entered a dormitory and shot a pizza delivery boy and the dormitory manager before shooting himself.<ref name="edition.cnn.com">[http://edition.cnn.com/2009/CRIME/04/26/hampton.university.shooting/index.html Three wounded in Hampton University shooting]</ref> All three survived the incident.<ref name="edition.cnn.com"/> Maye was arrested three days later on aggravated malicious wounding and various firearms offenses.<ref>[http://www.wavy.com/dpp/news/local_crime_wavy_hampton_shooting_suspect_arrested_20090429 HU shooting suspect appears in court]</ref>

== References ==
{{reflist|2}}

== External links ==
* [http://www.hamptonu.edu/ www.hamptonu.edu] -- Official web site
* [http://www.aaheritageva.org/search/sites.asp?MailingListID=19 Information on Hampton University from Virginia African Heritage Program]

{{Colleges and universities in Virginia}}
{{Registered Historic Places}}
{{HBCU}}
{{Associated New American Colleges}}
{{Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference}}
{{Hampton bowl games}}

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[[Category:Hampton University| ]]
[[Category:Universities and colleges in Virginia]]
[[Category:Historically black universities and colleges in the United States|Hampton University]]
[[Category:Educational institutions established in 1868]]
[[Category:National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities members]]
[[Category:Hampton, Virginia]]
[[Category:National Historic Landmarks in Virginia]]
[[Category:Universities and colleges accredited by the Southern Association of Colleges and Schools]]

[[fr:Université d'Hampton]]
[[no:Hampton University]]